cperry29 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, BuckeyeGal said: Weird.. I felt like the radar was better than the outputted snowfall showed on the gfs. Same. I was expecting a Euro-ish run. Guess we can sort that out later. 🤷🏻♂️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 10 minutes ago, BuckeyeGal said: Weird.. I felt like the radar was better than the outputted snowfall showed on the gfs. Thought that would turn out better too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 0z Ukie looks nice. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cperry29 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Euro seems to be a touch weaker and a touch south but throwing precip farther north so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indygirl Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Local Mets are really throwing hints for this set of systems coming up but of course, too early to say for sure what will happen. But at least they’re talking about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 (edited) Without a shift in the next couple days, models are starting to cutoff alot of the thread Edited January 2 by Ohiobuckeye45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted January 2 Moderators Share Posted January 2 I don't know if we have any extreme S/SE OH folks, but they are over over due for snow. In looking at the Athens and Chillicothe OH CoCoRaHS sites, both locations had less than 3" last season. Portsmouth may have been blanked but I'm not sure on the reliability of the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted January 2 Moderators Share Posted January 2 Some of the "delayed" big picture stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted January 2 Moderators Share Posted January 2 The latest Blend. (Canadian seems to be holding down totals.) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 The lack of truly cold air makes it a bit easier to miss out on biggest part of storm. I long for snow especially of a powdery variety. Paste looks pretty though... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted January 2 Meteorologist Share Posted January 2 This first system is really going to set the potential for the next system in the other thread. If we get a big enough snow (4-8") like the 06z Euro shows here, it should setup a baroclinic zone that would shift the next storm system south and make it cut further east. It'd need to be enough snow to counter the warm up in between systems though, so probably on the higher side of that range I just put. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted January 2 Moderators Share Posted January 2 WPC's extended quip from overnight. Generally, there seems to be an overall trend towards a faster surface low, though the UKMET remains the quickest. There are also lots of uncertainty with the exact northward extent of the track too, and the medium to smaller scale shortwave details with lower probability may have a significant effect on surface evolution, so additional adjustments in the guidance appears likely. The WPC forecast tonight relied on a non-UKMET blend for this system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted January 2 Moderators Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, RobB said: The lack of truly cold air makes it a bit easier to miss out on biggest part of storm. I long for snow especially of a powdery variety. Paste looks pretty though... Yeah, you would think being this far north of a low in January, OH wouldn't have to worry about mixing for once but all three models show mixing into SE OH....at this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobB Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, Hiramite said: Yeah, you would think being this far north of a low in January, OH wouldn't have to worry about mixing for once but all three models show mixing into SE OH....at this time. Indeed. Just wish we were back in the 70s weather wise 😁 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 (edited) 51 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Without a shift in the next couple days, models are starting to cutoff alot of the thread Can't pinpoint yet, but there's going to be a major OV screw zone for these next 2 storms - those in the zone will be both too far W/NW to cash in on this one & too far E/SE for Tuesday's system. Edited January 2 by MesoscaleBanding 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 6z eps has shifted/clustered further SE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 (edited) 3 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: Can't pinpoint yet, but there's going to be a major OV screw zone for these next 2 storms - those in the zone will be too far W/NW to cash in on this one & too far E/SE for Tuesday's system. Sure is setting up that way unless we get this one back NW like it was Edited January 2 by Ohiobuckeye45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Gefs subtly shifting or pinpointing SE as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 00z Korean went weaker and SE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 (edited) Hopefully this thing ramps back up on models with sampling. Our main energy is still well off the Pac-NW coast. Looks like we will have decent sampling for tomorrow's 12z runs. Edited January 2 by MesoscaleBanding 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 The 00z CMC ENS more support the consensus rather than the cmc op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Hiramite Posted January 2 Moderators Share Posted January 2 I don’t know how much this will be of use in this case, but might as well get some Low Tracker practice in. Very similar paths, but you can see how much weaker the Canadian is than the others. I won’t be around for the 12Z Euro. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 53 minutes ago, Ingyball said: This first system is really going to set the potential for the next system in the other thread. If we get a big enough snow (4-8") like the 06z Euro shows here, it should setup a baroclinic zone that would shift the next storm system south and make it cut further east. It'd need to be enough snow to counter the warm up in between systems though, so probably on the higher side of that range I just put. I think for it to set up a truly impactful baroclinic zone you'll need the snow from the first system to extend back into NE Arkansas, which is still possible on some of the ensembles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now