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January 5-7, 2024 | Winter Storm Potential


MesoscaleBanding

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1 minute ago, BuckeyeGal said:

Weird.. I felt like the radar was better than the outputted snowfall showed on the gfs.

Same. I was expecting a Euro-ish run. Guess we can sort that out later. 🤷🏻‍♂️

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I don't know if we have any extreme S/SE OH folks, but they are over over due for snow.  In looking at the Athens and Chillicothe OH CoCoRaHS sites, both locations had less than 3" last season.  Portsmouth may have been blanked but I'm not sure on the reliability of the data.

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The lack of truly cold air makes it a bit easier to miss out on biggest part of storm. I long for snow especially of a powdery variety. Paste looks pretty though... 

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This first system is really going to set the potential for the next system in the other thread. If we get a big enough snow (4-8") like the 06z Euro shows here, it should setup a baroclinic zone that would shift the next storm system south and make it cut further east. It'd need to be enough snow to counter the warm up in between systems though, so probably on the higher side of that range I just put. 

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WPC's extended quip from overnight.

Generally, there seems to be an overall trend towards a faster surface low, though the UKMET remains the quickest. There are also lots of uncertainty with the exact northward extent of the track too, and the medium to smaller scale shortwave details with lower probability may have a significant effect on surface evolution, so additional adjustments in the guidance appears likely. The WPC forecast tonight relied on a non-UKMET blend for this system.

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4 minutes ago, RobB said:

The lack of truly cold air makes it a bit easier to miss out on biggest part of storm. I long for snow especially of a powdery variety. Paste looks pretty though... 

Yeah, you would think being this far north of a low in January, OH wouldn't have to worry about mixing for once but all three models show mixing into SE OH....at this time.

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4 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

Yeah, you would think being this far north of a low in January, OH wouldn't have to worry about mixing for once but all three models show mixing into SE OH....at this time.

Indeed. Just wish we were back in the 70s weather wise 😁

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Posted (edited)
51 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Without a shift  in the next couple days, models are starting to cutoff alot of the thread

Can't pinpoint yet, but there's going to be a major OV screw zone for these next 2 storms - those in the zone will be both too far W/NW to cash in on this one & too far E/SE for Tuesday's system. 

Edited by MesoscaleBanding
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3 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

Can't pinpoint yet, but there's going to be a major OV screw zone for these next 2 storms - those in the zone will be too far W/NW to cash in on this one & too far E/SE for Tuesday's system. 

Sure is setting up that way unless we get this one back NW like it was

Edited by Ohiobuckeye45
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Posted (edited)

Hopefully this thing ramps back up on models with sampling. Our main energy is still well off the Pac-NW coast. Looks like we will have decent sampling for tomorrow's 12z runs.

Edited by MesoscaleBanding
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I don’t know how much this will be of use in this case, but might as well get some Low Tracker practice in.  Very similar paths, but you can see how much weaker the Canadian is than the others.   I won’t be around for the 12Z Euro.

IMG_5653.jpeg

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53 minutes ago, Ingyball said:

This first system is really going to set the potential for the next system in the other thread. If we get a big enough snow (4-8") like the 06z Euro shows here, it should setup a baroclinic zone that would shift the next storm system south and make it cut further east. It'd need to be enough snow to counter the warm up in between systems though, so probably on the higher side of that range I just put. 

 

I think for it to set up a truly impactful baroclinic zone you'll need the snow from the first system to extend back into NE Arkansas, which is still possible on some of the ensembles. 

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