Hiramite

Due to the popularity of the subject, we've moved the Turbo Buick posts to a new thread under the "Lounge". https://www.wxsphere.com/topic/640-turbo-buicks/

Thx @Pghsnow for the info! Even though you need a subscription to read it, you can still see a photo of what 6"/hr looks like. https://www.syracuse.com/weather/2024/12/upstate-ny-town-blasted-with-a-foot-of-snow-in-two-hours-it-came-down-fast-and-furious.html

Christmas morning ensemble "Snow Depth".

I don't know much about the Snow Squall Parameter but the are a few spots around OH in excess of a 4. Scale only goes up to a 5. 6 hours out?

Who doesn't like long range ensemble snow maps??? The ever popular CMCE.... @losetoa6turbo 87 Regal turbos!!

And the Blend.

Both the 0Z and the 6Z GFS have crept back west to graze the extreme eastern portions. Here's the 6Z. Temps are crappy though during the snow.

The ever unpopular Blend. (Last hour before the LES begins in OH & PA.)

CPC's 3-4 week outlook discussion, in part, that includes Christmas. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ ....As the MJO attempts to propagate across the Pacific, there is considerable uncertainty regarding whether the signal will remain coupled to enhanced convection as it begins destructively interfering with the base state. The GEFS dynamical model solutions show a more robust MJO evolution, while the ECMWF weakens the signal while continuing its eastward propagation. This uncertain MJO evolution is likely to play a role in the Weeks 3 and 4 outlook, as a midlatitude response to western Pacific convection can contribute to a pattern change across North America. A manual blend of dynamical and statistical model guidance results in a 500-hPa height anomaly field with troughing over the Aleutians, ridging over the western CONUS, and weak troughing over the Great Lakes region. This pattern is a fairly substantial change from the Week-2 guidance and is suggestive of mean enhanced southerly flow into Alaska and a potential for northerly flow into the central and eastern CONUS. This pattern increases the potential for cold air outbreaks; however, with a strengthened polar vortex feature, a positive AO signal, and a warm pattern antecedent to the Weeks 3 and 4 period, there may not be significant reservoirs of cold air in place to invade the Lower 48. Furthermore, the lack of a negative NAO pattern over the North Atlantic may provide a means for quick evacuation of any cold airmasses that do drop into the eastern US. Therefore, the Weeks 3 and 4 outlook contains considerable uncertainty, and the pattern during this time period may be marked by transitional features.

"Black" squirrels are now super common in NE OH for what was once a rare sight in the 70's & 80's. To understand how they came about, one had to have paid close attention in High School Biology when genetics was discussed. Several articles/studies on-line, but here's a summary from Wiki. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_squirrel It seems that interbreeding with Fox Squirrels is the main "culprit". In J's above pic, you can see some of the Fox Squirrel coloring.

I haven't been following this potential, but the Euro is showing increasing potential for maybe a light stripe of snow thru OH. With that and in hope of a "long-shot", from the WPC, the early morning 12/7 Extended Discussion, in part (my bold): ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... Regarding the amplified evolution over the East during the first half of the period, most guidance has maintained fairly good continuity with the idea of frontal wave intensification from the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast and northward over Canada from Wednesday into Thursday. Most trends are adding some confidence to this being a fairly strong system, as the ensemble means have trended better defined plus the 12Z machine learning (ML) models have on average trended about 5-10 mb deeper by the time the surface low reaches north of Maine by early Thursday. The UKMET is the one misfit, as it hangs back the shortwave energy in the southern part of the upper trough, resulting in a weaker/eastward surface evolution. One ML model trait of note is that most track this wave a little farther westward than most of the dynamical models/means, so it will be worth watching to see if the dynamical solutions eventually display any trend in that direction.

Here's the write-up from CLE on the 11/29 - 12/3 "historic" LES event, including some pictures, radar, etc. https://www.weather.gov/cle/event_20241128_1203

One of the best LES events in quite awhile IMBY.

I realize this is a simplified map, but these percentages look awfully high to me.

Unfortunately, the chances have been trending downward. Here's a 1991-2020 map. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/are-you-dreaming-white-christmas#:~:text=So%2C it's not surprising that,white Christmas than experienced increases. https://www.nj.com/weather/2021/12/chances-of-a-white-christmas-have-melted-a-bit-in-many-areas-of-us-since-1980s.html