Wnwniner Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 18 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: Can't pinpoint yet, but there's going to be a major OV screw zone for these next 2 storms - those in the zone will be both too far W/NW to cash in on this one & too far E/SE for Tuesday's system. Its going to be central Ohio...just feels like we can't catch a decent storm-seems like even when we're looking good, a last minute shift takes us down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 17 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: 6z eps has shifted/clustered further SE 0z EPS 6Z EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, Hiramite said: I don’t know how much this will be of use in this case, but might as well get some Low Tracker practice in. Very similar paths, but you can see how much weaker the Canadian is than the others. I won’t be around for the 12Z Euro. Primary is locked in it seems. Let's get that double barelled low back up and running from 2 days ago 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 Just now, Wnwniner said: Its going to be central Ohio...just feels like we can't catch a decent storm-seems like even when we're looking good, a last minute shift takes us down. I didn't want to say it, but that's what my gut is telling me right now. Just a glancing blow from this one followed by a near-miss, wash-out on Tuesday's system. Still a long way to go though. I'm hopeful that sampling tomorrow will bring this thing back NW a bit & stronger on modeling. I don't mind going 1 for 2 with these first 2 winter storm threats of the season, but it would be a gut punch to whiff on both. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wnwniner Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, MesoscaleBanding said: I didn't want to say it, but that's what my gut is telling me right now. Just a glancing blow from this one followed by a near-miss, wash-out on Tuesday's system. Still a long way to go though. I'm hopeful that sampling tomorrow will bring this thing back NW a bit & stronger on modeling. I don't mind going 1 for 2 with these first 2 winter storm threats of the season, but it would be a gut punch to whiff on both. And par for the course IMO. Modeling is setting up that way, especially as #1 slides SE a bit. There is a nice window of no snow opening up, and its right on us. But hey-maybe that means we get ours later this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 5 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Primary is locked in it seems. Let's get that double barelled low back up and running from 2 days ago Need to get back to 12z from Sunday. Almost identical coastal low placement but differing transfers situations. Sunday vs. Today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin BuckeyeGal Posted January 2 Admin Share Posted January 2 Could both storms miss us? Sure. Could they both hit us? Sure. No door has been slammed shut yet, friends. The possibilities for many options are still on the table. Recent history has most certainly not been kind to the Ohio Valley area when it comes to winter systems, but we're in a very different atmospheric pattern now. Let's not yank the rug out from under its feet before it has a chance to test its footing. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 (edited) 24 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Need to get back to 12z from Sunday. Almost identical coastal low placement but differing transfers situations. Sunday vs. Today When we had the string of big-hitting runs the other day, the primary was going sub-1000mb in Louisiana & cutting up through MS/AL/TN/KY - the coastal transfer was occurring, but the weakening primary was able to do a lot of damage due to its earlier strength. It was also able to generate more cold air to enhance the snowfall. A stronger storm earlier-on is the main thing I'll be hoping to see on models as this thing gets better sampled. Edited January 2 by MesoscaleBanding 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 (edited) 7 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: When we had the string of big-hitting runs the other day, the primary was going sub-1000mb in Louisiana & cutting up through MS/AL/TN/KY - the coastal transfer was occurring, but the weakening primary was able to do a lot of damage due to its earlier strength. It was also able to generate more cold air to enhance the snowfall. A stronger storm earlier-on is the main thing I'll be hoping to see on models as this thing gets better sampled. This is the key for sure. Personally I would think the higher heights to the east & north of the system would be enough to slow the system enough to strengthen further west than recent runs. You just don't want too much of a good thing or then you're dealing with warm air. Edited January 2 by Grace 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Uscg Ast Posted January 2 Admin Share Posted January 2 Welcome to all who have found their way here. It is nice to see some old and new faces. 😁 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 35 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: Need to get back to 12z from Sunday. Almost identical coastal low placement but differing transfers situations. Sunday vs. Today Yea and you can see it was clearly stronger at H5. Let’s see what sampling does. I don’t expect major changes but when you’re on the edge it could change things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junior Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 One thing Iv noticed is the heights ahead have been increasing (50/50 faster or more east)which is good however you have that s/w behind it acting as a counter kicker. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 ILN seems to be favoring the further SE solutions... Quote Meanwhile, a potent low pressure system will be organizing over the Gulf Coast and will begin ejecting northeasterly Friday night, reaching the Carolinas Saturday afternoon. Latest guidance shows a southeasterly low level jet pulling moisture off the Atlantic Ocean and bringing it back across West Virginia into southern Ohio. While deterministic guidance still varies, there is increasing confidence that precipitation will be occurring Saturday. Based on model soundings, it appears the vertical temperature profile will make for a difficult rain vs. snow forecast. For now, have generally a rain/snow mix where the precipitation is most widespread in the southeast, with mainly light snow back to the northwest. While confidence in precipitation type is low, have opted for an HWO mention for possible snow accumulations southeast of Interstate 71. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 (edited) Last frame of the 12z NAM Edited January 2 by MesoscaleBanding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 19 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: Last frame of the 12z NAM notably slower than pretty much everything at that point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mafa Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 17 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: Last frame of the 12z NAM I know this is la-la land NAM, but that is a stronger vort than all other current model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 You can always count on a west trend with NAM, lol. Hopefully it's correct this time. If you played that out from there it would be a pretty decent run I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: notably slower than pretty much everything at that point 4 minutes ago, mafa said: I know this is la-la land NAM, but that is a stronger vort than all other current model runs. Just now, Grace said: You can always count on a west trend with NAM, lol. Hopefully it's correct this time. If you played that out from there it would be a pretty decent run I think. Impossible to trust in its long range, but it's nice to see what many of us are looking for on at least 1 major model at this point, lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 this is going to end up a HUGE improvement on the icon 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 0z Thurs has partially the main energy on shore & 12z has all the pieces. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Just now, Ohiobuckeye45 said: this is going to end up a HUGE improvement on the icon this was 6z, same timeframe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: this is going to end up a HUGE improvement on the icon From where 6z was yes, but it's still not good. But the trend is our friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MesoscaleBanding Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 2 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said: this is going to end up a HUGE improvement on the icon Absolutely - you can see the improvement coming early on with this change at 500mb compared to earlier runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ohiobuckeye45 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 more aligned with other models, but at least it gave up on the screwing everyone west of PA solutions 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 28 minutes ago, Grace said: You can always count on a west trend with NAM, lol. Hopefully it's correct this time. If you played that out from there it would be a pretty decent run I think. 25 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said: Impossible to trust in its long range, but it's nice to see what many of us are looking for on at least 1 major model at this point, lol. Wish i had a nickel for every time the other models had a more east solution and then the NAM gets in range with a more NW solution and ends up being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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