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January 5-7, 2024 | Winter Storm Potential


MesoscaleBanding

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Based on hour 90 of the 18z ecm, the 00z nam at 84 should tip its hand tonight on initial thoughts. I will not be partaking in the 00z, the holiday hangover is real and not exactly excited to see the next chess move 😀 

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1 hour ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Based on hour 90 of the 18z ecm, the 00z nam at 84 should tip its hand tonight on initial thoughts. I will not be partaking in the 00z, the holiday hangover is real and not exactly excited to see the next chess move 😀 

I feel you with the post holiday feels. Not going to be a late night either. 
 

In the meantime, the NAM has a slightly stronger vort than at 18z. 

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Just now, BuckeyeGal said:

That was again a weird run. It looked promising and then sputtered. 

A few peeps I follow expect this behaviour.  We shall see...

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That was about as ugly as it could get. Crazy to see this thing just fizzle out like this. It’s different to not get the snows but this whole thing bailed for the entire region nearly

Edited by Snow____
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Just now, BoroBuckeye said:

Snow or rain?  Looks iffy for central Ohio with surface temps.

I’m just looking at radar output, not temps..

and then watching the beast of next week come in. 😳

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ILN giving greater detail on this.

Quote
Mid level short wave energy will move out of the southern Plains
Friday night and lift quickly northeast across the Ohio Valley to
the New England area Saturday into Saturday night. Models continue
to vary on the exact track and strength of the associated surface low
over the southeast US and the potential for a secondary wave and/or
inverted trough nosing up into the Ohio Valley. While this leads to
some lower confidence in the forecast details, there is higher
confidence in the overall pcpn chances. Thus, expect a developing
chance for pcpn Friday night with widespread precipitation during the
day on Saturday, before tapering off heading into Saturday night.
Will range highest pops from categorical southeast to likely across
our northwest. With surface temperatures in the mid to possibly
upper 30s, ptype is a little tricky and will continue to allow for a
rain/snow mix across our south with mainly snow across our north.
This makes for a difficult accumulation forecast at this point, but
the potential does exist for a few inches of snow Saturday into
Saturday evening, with the highest accumulations most likely across
our east and southeast.

 

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