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Grace

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Grace last won the day on December 27 2024

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  1. Grace
    Hey, another cold shot anyone?
  2. Grace
    Correction...Jan 27-FEB 11th. First, it's hard to get a lead on the JAN 27-FEB 2 correlation: The Feb 2-11th period for the EAR correlation is very interesting, with the way East Asia is being modeled currently. Both systems could correlate to a period of interest in the CONUS for someone in the east.
  3. Grace
    Work load go overwhelming at the wrong time, lol. Happens every winter at some point. Thanks for the concern.
  4. Grace
    Watch East Asia for the JAN 27-FEB 6th period.
  5. Grace
    Pensacola, FL is sitting at 10 inches & it's still snowing 😐
  6. Grace
    RAP has the same trend
  7. Grace
    One last post...HRRR with an early trend that might affect later outcome
  8. Grace
    Roundy's tool does not predict precip. Just general H5 & it nailed the overall picture. To get storms a lot of other factors have to come together. 🫤🫤🫤
  9. Grace
    This might be one of the greatest discrepancies of models I can recall 24-36 hrs from an event. The hi-resolution & OP models ARW, NSSL, RGEM, CMC, UKMET, ICON vs. NAM, NAM 3km, FV3 with GFS having no rival. Details of the latter are a little different but pretty close. I usually rely on the hi-resolution short-range models within 24hrs, it's borderline in that window. If they're accurate even West TN gets freezing rain. I honestly think if I'm a MET, I'd still be general at this point & talk of possibilities & wait for 12z tomorrow to make some type of real call. Then it's all HRRR & OBS. I'm sure there will be no curve ball thrown in real time. 😆
  10. Grace
    I like those guys & I think they're very good. But they set themselves up with the "big-talk". When you HYPE & something changes, the average non-weather person thinks you blew it, but in reality it's not true; they're just using the data given. But just don't have big talk & be cautious in your wording....if you have a business. But who am I to say...I'm just a weather forum nerd, lol. 😄I cringe when they talk big knowing weather can humble you to your knees in a heartbeat.
  11. Grace
    Remember, sometimes sampling changes nothing. Other times sampling pics up on little things that might have big impacts. Sampling could indicate system will be stronger or weaker...nothing drastic, but it does not have to be for it to impact the outcome quiet a bit. Also...surface temps & atmospheric temp profiles are not set in stone. Those issues impact a system like this regardless of track. All it takes is a degree or 2. Point is THIS AIN'T OVER!
  12. Grace
  13. Grace
    The RGEM & CMC solutions would be a nightmare. 1.7 inches of freezing rain would be sick.
  14. Grace
    Any model that includes fresh data will have partial sampling on 18z
  15. Grace
    12z EPS vs 0z EPS
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