Grace

I'm in the moderate...yay 😑

The European Seasonal model is interesting. It has the LA Nina weakening in early fall. July October

This event is busting. Not one single tornado warning right now & plenty of storms. I know it can change but....

Yea, parameters have really increased since the sun came out earlier in that area.

No doubt 🔥 That's my expectation. Anything not fire will be a massive plus. And severe weather for Spring of '25...go look up April 1974.

This coming LA Nina may make a run at the strongest LA Nina since 1973-74.

MJO is terrified of phases 8 1,2...lol. Ain't gonna happen. This played a big role in winter as well, but I know the Nino played a role in the MJO. It's all related.

The 500mb displayed is exactly what you look expect with a strong borderline east-base super El nino. The forcing out west though a curve ball & yet had an east-base result. This was a very difficult forecast with how abnormal so many factors were. I think the late streghtening of the El Nino instead of an early peak was the controlling factor when all is said & done. I'm so excited for another LA Nina while the PDO is already strongly negative. We might give 2011-12 a run for its money on a warm, sucky winter. If 500mb pattern is similar to that we no doubt will be warmer. 1973-74 has to be a top analog though. Next Spring severe weather might be through the roof. Wish we could get 2-3 consecutive neutral ENSO's. 😐

I believe the groundhog over any model!

I went from 15 inches to zippo in about 12 hrs. 😆

Unbelievable!! Twice in one winter! Never underestimate the power of the groundhog! WINTER IS OVER!!! And models are pure crap! 😃

It's pretty hard to believe any model right now

Black dot in West ky is where I live. 🙂 I've been NAMed!