StLweatherjunkie

The substance looks like a nearly mature La Nina: Yup, the El Nino is definitely fading as cooler waters surface in Nino 1+2:

Sorry for all the edits to my original post, but the point remains that LSRs vs SPC criteria suggest higher-end risk days should be more common.

Do you think high risks are justified for hail and wind threats or only tornadoes? EDIT 1: I think SPC culture is to only issue high risks for tornadoes, but their own verification criteria shoot them in the foot for other hazards. Again, I know hindsight is 20-20 but now that we can look at LSRs ... was there a high risk of large hail in western KS two days ago? Practically every location within that mesoscale area got large hail so I'd say yes there was a high risk for large hail in that area with a marginal risk everywhere else. EDIT 2: Of course the case can be made that hail is much less likely to be a deadly hazard, but it is incredibly economically damaging. Not sure much could be done to prevent damage even with a perfect forecast, but still by their own verification criteria ... yes, there could be a high risk for large hail.

There are ways to reign in the longer range AI spam, and I'd go further to say there needs to be a balance between NWP, AI, and humans. However, I don't think humans should make the first draft because of their inherent biases. I find the SPC humans deeply frustrating since they NEED to be more aggressive in days like today. They dole out slight risks like they're hotcakes that exaggerate the extent of smaller threats, but they are so guarded about high risk days that they don't raise the alarm as often as they should. Again 13/15 (87%) of the top analogs SHOULD have been high risk days based on LSRs. In real life, the SPC only issued high risks on just ONE of these days. Obviously I have the enormous benefit of hindsight, but we've been monitoring a favorable weather pattern over the climatologically favored area at the peak of the season for several days now. What more do they need to know before pulling the trigger?

Displacing the moderate risk so far southeast/east of the triple point/dry line seems difficult to justify with fundamental meteorology. Overall I think CIPS analogs have a much better handle on the threat area and the 80%+ probabilities strongly suggest a high risk is justified. 13 of the top 15 analogs should have been high risk days ... This event is a prime example of why humans should not be generating these outlooks. Let the AI take the wheel and have humans describe and quality control their output.

Just stopping in to say that the weather hasn't lined up favorably for the traditional Tornado Alley outbreak in quite a while. The fact that the next couple days of weather is lining up with peak tornado climatology across Tornado Alley is extremely concerning to me. Doesn't matter what the spc risk level is, the next few days are the real deal.

We'll know by September/October: Why is it surprising the thermocline is struggling to break? Warm over cold is a stable condition that prevents mixing.

Fire, torch? Looks nice for MBY 😍

I remain impressed at how quickly this El Nino fell apart ... Almost 2.5C of cooling in just 4 months!

I remain impressed at how quickly this El Nino fell apart ... Almost 2.5C of cooling in just 4 months!

The lack of winter already took care of that. Could have tapped trees on January 23rd and done pretty well this season, which is bonkers. Tapping in early to mid March is much more common UP here.

Pretty amazing upward surge of the thermocline over the past few weeks. From +5C to -5C in about a month!

The burst of cooling near the Panama canal immediately before upwelling of cooler waters reaches the surface is interesting. Maybe just a coincidence though ... I'm also 1000% in favor of an ENSO neutral year for a change, it's been too damn long and it feels like they don't happen as often as they once did! Latest subsurface looks rather Nina ish though, pretty rapid thermocline movement all the sudden: Interesting that in terms of MEI this El Nino might not even meet the official definition of an El Nino ... though for some reason they calculate bi monthly instead of tri monthly periods. Only reaching 1.1 for one period is way less impressive than sst metrics alone (ONI)

Boom goes the dynamite:

That is just a wee bit of a cap on the 3km Nam 😄