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January 5-7, 2024 | Winter Storm Potential


MesoscaleBanding

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Jeffro said:

Happy 2024 everyone. Excited to see winter finally ramping up around here.

Just moved north and the first storm trends to the south. Just my Luck! 

Hoping to get some kind of 24/7 live feed set up soon for when that inventible 70 & 71 splits set up, though i'm about 30 miles north of that line now. 

Cheers 🍻

Kilbourne is a beautiful area - and you'll definitely see less mixing issues compared to where you were in C-bus metro.

Edited by MesoscaleBanding
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Just now, MesoscaleBanding said:

Kilbourne is a beautiful area - you'll definitely see less mixing issues compared to where you were in C-bus metro.

Hopefully. we have already received multiple measurable snows compared to down there. 

 

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4 hours ago, Wnwniner said:

Its going to be central Ohio...just feels like we can't catch a decent storm-seems like even when we're looking good, a last minute shift takes us down.

I would add NW Ohio to that as well. 

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Just now, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

that makes every single 12z model trended weaker in some cases 3-5" MBs

Not great, but still holding out hope that we can see some juice added late in the game as this thing gets sampled over the next 24-36 hours.

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Just now, MesoscaleBanding said:

Great example of why model solutions are so unreliable in the 5-6 day range...look at the 500mb difference between Sunday's 12z Euro & today's...just laughable 🤡

euro.gif

Indeed....Yet we keep going to them 🙂

 

That's what happens when one is starved for some snow...

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3 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

GEFS even has the mean skewed a bit here by a couple members, all in all rather dangerous gamble hoping for those few members

 

image.thumb.png.316748cb499c6951cb53522aa45ac574.png

I'll have what 13 & 17 are having, please. lol.

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25 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

Great example of why model solutions are so unreliable in the 5-6+ day range...look at the 500mb difference between Sunday's 12z Euro & today's...just laughable 🤡

euro.gif

Darn kicker.

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I'm not sure we've discussed this but the convection out ahead of both of these systems is robbing the cold side of the storm of a lot of moisture.

 Now it also could be the models are having a hard time resolving the convection and the flow of moisture on the North and Northwest side of the lows. 

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1 minute ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Eps ensembles says this is still a big storm for someone 

This is kind of vague. Are you talking this weekend storm and can you elaborate a bit?

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I still think this one will pan out.  Why?  Because I don’t want it to.  I’m supposed to take my son to the Blue Jackets game Saturday night which would be a royal pain in the butt in that.  So, naturally, it’ll happen.  😊

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