January 5-7, 2024 | Winter Storm Potential

[MesoscaleBanding]

This system will probably need a thread...

 

[Hoosier]

Interesting trend on guidance... we now have a system that closes off much farther north than before.

[Hoosier]

500 mb trend on GFS, valid 18z next Saturday

[snowlover2]

27 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

This system will probably need a thread...

 

I noticed this seemed to be moving north toward the OV which is the other reason i changed the dates on the 4-7 thread to 3-5 in case we needed another one for this.

[snowlover2]

12z Euro not playing ball.

[snowlover2]

[snowlover2]

At least on the GFS this looks close to being something a little bigger if the energy from the north can hook up with the new Low that develops in the south.

[snowlover2]

0z GFS

[snowlover2]

0z GGEM very different.

[snowlover2]

0z Euro farther north and starting to look more like GFS.

[StormfanaticInd]

This one is definitely trending in a good direction 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

These things just keep being fools gold outside 3-4 days away. But I might start tracking this one anyways. I wished it had more ensembles backup

Edited December 31, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45

[StormfanaticInd]

[StormfanaticInd]

6 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

 

Edited December 31, 2023 by StormfanaticInd

[Hiramite]

  

A quick check of the AI models on 12/31 AM:

All four models show a low of varying intensities tracking across the gulf coast then up the EC and out to sea along the Mid Atlantic for this time period, ~1/6-1/7.

Then all have a follow-up, stronger storm (sub 1000mb) that tracks NE thru OH around the 10th.

 

 

 

[junior]

12Z GFS is pretty amped compared to previous runs. Would be nice for many here.

Transfers later which has its pros and cons. 

Edited December 31, 2023 by junior

[snowlover2]

[snowlover2]

12z GGEM is an improvement but still too far SE.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

12z UK would miss way SE as well, but good to see more standard winter storm tracks nearly halfway through winter finally popping up

Edited December 31, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45

[junior]

12z GEFS are south of the OP( similar look to CMC) 

Meanwhile 12z Euro coming in hot like the 12z GFS OP

Edited December 31, 2023 by junior

[Mulaman984]

ECMWF. Let’s go. 

[Mulaman984]

Transfers later 

[snowlover2]

1 minute ago, Mulaman984 said:

Transfers later 

Doesn't even transfer that much east which is good for us.

[snowlover2]

[SNOWBOB11]

Looks great on the euro.