Ingyball

Heh, we're both suffering then. I didn't realize how much dry season lacked thunder here. We still get rain, heck we got 5.50" in 3 hours 10 days ago, not a single lightning strike or thunder tho. Gotta just make it a couple more months till wet season lol.

Looks like there was about a 72kt VROT when the tornado passed near Henagar.

I'm glad last night didn't quite live up to the potential it could have, but it sucks that more towns got destroyed. I'm worried about all the spacing being shown on the CAMs for today. Not many strong 0-3km UH tracks showing up, but I have to wonder if that's due to storms being too small for the models to depict and not a result of weak convection. The environment will supercells. For Wednesday, it looks like initially it could be very favorable for tornadoes before it becomes a wind event. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a wind driven high risk for Wednesday.

Here's some discussion I did for today's setup. https://x.com/IngyBall/status/1787361242967101642

In my experience, the 3K NAM loves to go linear way too fast. I agree with linear where the split flow occurs and to the north, but south of there where the flow is near orthogonal to the boundary I believe supercells will be favored. Might have a transition to semi-discrete in southern Kansas.

Monday should not be taken lightly and I'm glad that SPC isn't playing around with an early Day 2 moderate. Where the upper jet streak positions itself will be important for where the outbreak focuses, but that orientation into the warm sector is very concerning. Storm mode may be the only thing that limits this outbreak and even then we're probably looking at a derecho if it goes linear too quickly. That said, that angle of the jet streak favors discrete more.

Complicated setup tomorrow with the outflow/front screaming down the High Plains, but with an upper 60/ low 70 dews possible as far west as Midland and Odessa, tomorrow could be the real deal.

Calculated a 75kt vrot on Radar Omega. That may not seem high compared to what we've witnessed recently, but it's still a high end vrot. Just goes to show how insane it is to have multiple storms have vrot over 100kt.

Timing will be everything, especially Monday, but this does appear to be another widespread outbreak early next week with a pattern reload at the end of next week. Busy times.

Wow, I go to make brunch and miss that thing. Unfortunately when you get a debris ball like that something got hit. Not sure if that part of Oklahoma has a ton of trees too.

I'm glad SPC did an upgrade for Sunday. I think there's some real potential in western/southwestern Arkansas.

This was my concern for this event. Sucks that it's happening right now, but I'm glad it wasn't just spamming all day like it could potentially have done.

RRFS has done pretty well with today so far. Reports line up with where the UH tracks were appearing through 00z on previous runs. The question is how tornadic is the line that moves into central and eastern Oklahoma tonight? Any embedded supercells could be especially dangerous.

Already got some fairly organized cells going.

I targeted northern Kansas/southern Nebraska for our severe challenge for that reason. And yeah, I like the positioning of the CIPS in this case. The SPC forecasts have been a bit too far east through this pattern. Edit: I will say that I think that there is some balance between pure AI and pure human generation. I think having some human tweaking of AI generation is a good middle ground and prevents moderate or high risk spam when parameters are impressive but a stout cap is present. CIPS and CSU can catch onto that on day 1 and 2, but beyond day 2, they sometimes overdo those outlooks, like 4/15 for example.