Dec. 9-12, 2023 | Potential Winter Storm

[snowlover2]

Well what the hell. GFS has been showing a possible storm for several runs now. GGEM does have a weaker and quicker storm. Euro at the end of the run appears to have something big brewing. Gives us something to track anyway.

Edited November 30, 2023 by snowlover2

[Hoosier]

Storm is cutting off at end of Euro run.  Would hope that it maintains enough cold air as it comes east.  But this is way out anyway.

[LUCC]

Hoping to kick off winter with a BANG!!!!😎

 

 

And by BANG, I mean a big snowstorm, sinners. 

Edited November 30, 2023 by LUCC

[snowlover2]

21 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Storm is cutting off at end of Euro run.  Would hope that it maintains enough cold air as it comes east.  But this is way out anyway.

GFS has it cut off on the last 3 runs. If this is any indication of how this winter will go, i say we just skip right to spring.

[snowlover2]

18z GFS does not cutoff the energy in the SW and gives us a W GLC.

[SnowloverSid]

Once it trends to cutter, it seldom trends back. I hope I am wrong about this system.

[NWOhioChaser]

Local Mets have temps near/hitting 50 during this timeframe. Probably will end up being a cutter and cold rain will prevail. Maybe that’ll change but doubtful given the pattern heading into the month of December. 

[snowlover2]

Looks like Euro has also ditched the SW cutoff idea. GFS/GGEM/Euro all have more of a substantial system now.

[Grace]

0z Euro Control...not posting because I think this is gospel just another look. 

Just to give an idea. I don't have a loop on control 

 

[Central Illinois]

I think their's potential with this one still early though...

[Hoosier]

There's been an overall trend toward a more progressive system on the models.

[BuckeyeGal]

If only there was more cold air.

I think I've only said that a million times in the past however long since I've been tracking. 😆

[junior]

Recent runs are straying away from the cutoff idea which is nice. 

[snowlover2]

This is getting kinda interesting with models suggesting the energy going neg tilt in the E OH Valley/Apps area.

[MaineJay]

58 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

This is getting kinda interesting with models suggesting the energy going neg tilt in the E OH Valley/Apps area.

We might as well start kneeling to our emerging AI overlords.  So here's what they are saying.

 

 

[junior]

That Euro run caught many eyes I’m sure. 

[Grace]

1 hour ago, MaineJay said:

We might as well start kneeling to our emerging AI overlords.  So here's what they are saying.

 

 

 

I kind of likey!

[Grace]

1 hour ago, MaineJay said:

We might as well start kneeling to our emerging AI overlords.  So here's what they are saying.

 

 

 

BTW, is this accessible?

[Hiramite]

I looked at the SLP charts for 4 AI models MJ posted for Monday Dec 11th.  Here's a rough summary.

FourCast, AIFS and Pangu:  Pretty much an Apps runner going negative tilt over the NE.

GraphCast:  Up the EC.

Edited December 3, 2023 by Hiramite

[MesoscaleBanding]

42 minutes ago, junior said:

That Euro run caught many eyes I’m sure. 

 

[MaineJay]

32 minutes ago, Grace said:

 

BTW, is this accessible?

It is, I should've included the link.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A["Experimental%3A Machine learning models"]}

[cperry29]

It’s something to track I guess. Temps are marginal at best this run but whatevs. Last few temp frames are being stubborn and haven’t loaded.

[MaineJay]

East Asia with a decent looking trof that could correlate to about the 11th.  Using a 5 day lag. Might be kinda short, but seemed to work well with the current storm moving through the Eastern CONUS.

[MesoscaleBanding]

Swing and a miss on the latest GFS

[BuckeyeGal]

If the Euro manages to wrap in colder air faster.. it would be a thing of utter beauty. The 12z run was slightly weaker but similar placement/idea.