Admin MaineJay Posted March 4, 2023 Admin Share Posted March 4, 2023 I'm just here to torture folks with potential. A little system tries to squeak through. Hope it interacts with energy rotating around the Grand Banks low, and the strength and position of said low are kinda tricky. Where and axis of snow sets up is very much in question. Synoptically, it seems to suggest a narrow, band, but if it looks trains in that laterally translating motion, someone could get a winning lotto ticket. NAM furthest NE EC Ukie is weakest and most SW 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 4, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted March 4, 2023 Ukie snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayuphere Posted March 4, 2023 Share Posted March 4, 2023 We got “Maritime air” mentioned up here as the low retrogrades. Temps could be upside down, warmer the further northeast you go with rain showers possible. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted March 4, 2023 Moderators Share Posted March 4, 2023 I swear there was more in this yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 5, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted March 5, 2023 A thin stripe of potential for 6" still there. NAM is most outlying. GFS a bit ambitious. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted March 5, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted March 5, 2023 GFS is trolling @JDClapper Meanwhile the Ukie is like, "get off the sauce". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 37 minutes ago, MaineJay said: GFS is trolling @JDClapper Meanwhile the Ukie is like, "get off the sauce". Yeah, side eye on this one. Snow depth change would suggest a 2-4" stripe somewhere in my neck of the woods to the PA/Ny border. Narrow 15-25 mile wide stripe of lucky people.. or deer and other woodland creatures. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 5, 2023 Share Posted March 5, 2023 CTP threw out 12z GFS and is going with northern tier PA 2-4".. but as is the case lately, models are really.. REALLY bad with bullseye zone the this year and even last year. I will look out the window tomorrow evening. 😄 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 (edited) HRRR trend the past 12 hrs. Jump south recently and a little extra on the south side of the heaviest stripe. Edited March 6, 2023 by JDClapper 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 NAM 24 hour trend. Under that is 7:30 CTP current forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 3k NAM trend today. Trying my best to temper expectations. This is one of the highest level "look out the window" situations there can be. That band will be extremely narrow. Heart-breaker potential high. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 RDPS trend. Lukewarm on this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 GFS 24 hour trend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Oh boy, CTP upped the ante. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Nam seems to have shifted north a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Still haven’t had to ‘clean’ my car off before work this year…. Doesn’t look like I’m going to tomorrow either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Suffolk County is either going to get a dust or nothing from this. This storm looks like it went on a Jenny Craig or Weight Watchers diet. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 (edited) Nams went north of town, HRRR still right through town. We will see in 12 hours. Edit, well fv3 is through town, but 12k/3k is north. 50/50 so far lol Edited March 6, 2023 by JDClapper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Where my @WeatherFlash at? This is boom or bust for both us.. if Williamsport wins, looks like Danville wins. or, vice versa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Who else is in this line of fire? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 NAM 3k and HRRR showing that fine line for Western Suffolk on an angle. NAM 3k showing snow only while HRRR shows rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFlash Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 36 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Where my @WeatherFlash at? This is boom or bust for both us.. if Williamsport wins, looks like Danville wins. or, vice versa. Haha I'm here. I've been peaking at the short ranges since last night runs fully expecting it to drift away again and trying not to jinx it. but this could be my biggest snow of the year sadly speaking. Now i for sure jinxed it lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFlash Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 (edited) 53 minutes ago, JDClapper said: Where my @WeatherFlash Error double post. Edited March 6, 2023 by WeatherFlash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFlash Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 Not sure why that posted twice. I'm looking forward to 18z runs but overall whoever is in that band showed wake up happy tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFlash Posted March 6, 2023 Share Posted March 6, 2023 HRRR seems to be slowly lifting this band feature north with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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