StretchCT

Not only did the ICON and AIFS get it 7 days out, but they were consistent in it hitting LA. This is 0z Thu, which is 8pm edt/7cdt which was right around landfall. Both had it hitting later on Thursday so the earlier runs have it in the GOM still, but they do bring it into LA on those early runs.

Looking back, two models came really close to nailing the landfall 7 days out. Only the timing was off. Gotta say the ICON has been pretty good this season. Euro op/EPS, GFS and CMC all had it either not forming or weak and running into Mexico. NAVY and JMA had something at least

400 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 ...FRANCINE BECOMES A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE AS THE EYE APPROACHES THE LOUISIANA COAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING ONTO THE LOUISIANA COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.2N 91.5W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES

Other side of the storm at about 5000 feet

Eugene island with 4’ surge and 78kt gusts. Winds aloft in the mid 90s

Basically hurricane conditions at Eugene Island, but only a 2ft surge. Lucky its dead low tide.

This is from WAPO - View of the Bridge Fire from Los Angeles.. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/09/11/southern-california-bridge-fire-wrightwood/

The 981 was extrapolated so take any decrease with a grain of salt.

Closer in

Might be clearing out the eye just in time for landfall.

Still near 100mph flight level winds in mission 14. Eye is circular 30nm wide and open in the S/SE

200 PM CVT Wed Sep 11 2024 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WATER FOR MANY DAYS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 28.7W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 16.0N 28.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 16.6N 31.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 17.5N 34.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 18.6N 36.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 19.3N 39.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 14/0000Z 19.9N 41.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 20.3N 43.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 20.6N 46.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 16/1200Z 21.0N 48.8W 45 KT 50 MPH Luckily its out in no mans land so the spread in the intensity only matters to the fish and ships Lots of spread in gfs ensembles for track too

Gusts at Eugene Island 54kts, sus at 40kts Garden Banks offshore platform saw Hurricane winds with gusts to 95mph.