Winter 2023-2024 | Discussion and Outlooks

[NKYSnowLover]

Less than 10 months until next met winter. Might as well get the jump on a new thread.😉 

Few certainties for winter 23/24 - all of which I believe happened in 21/22 and 22/23, so let's recycle them again:

1. It'll be cold in some parts of the country, it'll be warm in others and even some will just be normal. But with certainty, the CFS (NEW FOR 23/24: and now NAEFS) will bathe us all in oranges and reds.

2. It'll snow... somewhere. It'll rain... everywhere. It'll ice... hopefully no where

3. There will be no less than 3 major mental breakdowns in the Wx community AND 3 faux calls for SSW's that'll drop a tropospheric PV so hard that Florida will be wishing "The Day After Tomorrow" scenario was the outcome vs. the forecast. Additionally, a group of people will consider waving the "white flag" by Thanksgiving due to bad vibes on the weekly temp/precip and/or extended MJO outlooks.

4. 80% or more of winter forecasts made in Sept./Oct. will show a cold east / warm west look. Almost all of those will show at least part of the I-95 NE urban corridor as getting above normal snowfall. At least 1 map will show a top 5 snowfall prediction for NYC. 

5. The truth is no one really knows what'll happen, but that's what makes it fun and exciting!

Carry on with the thoughts, ideas and discussion!

Edited February 22, 2023 by NKYSnowLover

[Guest]

18 hours ago, NKYSnowLover said:

Less than 10 months until next met winter. Might as well get the jump on a new thread.😉 

Few certainties for winter 23/24 - all of which I believe happened in 21/22 and 22/23, so let's recycle them again:

1. It'll be cold in some parts of the country, it'll be warm in others and even some will just be normal. But with certainty, the CFS (NEW FOR 23/24: and now NAEFS) will bathe us all in oranges and reds.

2. It'll snow... somewhere. It'll rain... everywhere. It'll ice... hopefully no where

3. There will be no less than 3 major mental breakdowns in the Wx community AND 3 faux calls for SSW's that'll drop a tropospheric PV so hard that Florida will be wishing "The Day After Tomorrow" scenario was the outcome vs. the forecast. Additionally, a group of people will consider waving the "white flag" by Thanksgiving due to bad vibes on the weekly temp/precip and/or extended MJO outlooks.

4. 80% or more of winter forecasts made in Sept./Oct. will show a cold east / warm west look. Almost all of those will show at least part of the I-95 NE urban corridor as getting above normal snowfall. At least 1 map will show a top 5 snowfall prediction for NYC. 

5. The truth is no one really knows what'll happen, but that's what makes it fun and exciting!

Carry on with the thoughts, ideas and discussion!

One thing is fairly certain: next winter will be better than this winter! Nowhere to go but up after this debacle. 

[MotownWX]

[CTRL-C my post from last year]

[CTRL-V]

• Warm, pleasant fall
• Mild, uneventful early winter
• Stormy and cold after mid-January
• Frequent cut-off lows and cold shots right through end of April.  

😏

[Iceresistance]

Well, we could have an El Nino on that winter, this might help the Northeast for some snowfall.

[StormfanaticInd]

Surely next winter will produce. We are long overdue 

[Cary67]

On 2/28/2023 at 2:08 PM, MotownWX said:

[CTRL-C my post from last year]

[CTRL-V]

• Warm, pleasant fall
• Mild, uneventful early winter
• Stormy and cold after mid-January
• Frequent cut-off lows and cold shots right through end of April.  

😏

Hard to disagree with most of this prediction. Although stormy and cold after mid January is debatable this year for most of the East. West has been stormy and cold most of the winter. As for you locally, SEMI and DTW has made the most of the few windows of opportunity this winter and even last years had to offer. Still sitting at 18" for the year and I'm pretty much west of you about 150 miles. Thought you were approaching 30" or so for the season.

[NKYSnowLover]

2 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Yesterday's storm puts GYX a bit above average for snowfall to date. 

 

2 hours ago, StretchCT said:

GFS loses the cold for the NE.  Of course Maine being above normal just means that it's snowing there.

 

2 hours ago, StretchCT said:

EPS Temp 5 day anomalies for days 6-10 and 11-15

Trend for 6-10 - so it may stick as cold

Think you guys meant these for the winter 22-23 thread. 😉

Edited March 5, 2023 by NKYSnowLover

[StretchCT]

23 minutes ago, NKYSnowLover said:

 

 

Think you guys meant these for the winter 22-23 thread. 😉

Winter is so bad that the most recent posts were in next winter's thread!😅🤣😂😬😔😪😡

[MaineJay]

As mentioned in the ENSO thread. There's only been 2 years since 1950 where a Niña was followed rapidly by a Niño, beginning in AMJ. 1965 and 1972.

[Hiramite]

A final look at the winter of 22-23.   (Diamond symbols are records.)

Close-up:

[Iceresistance]

58 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

A final look at the winter of 22-23.   (Diamond symbols are records.)

Close-up:

I don't understand the colors

[Hiramite]

5 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

I don't understand the colors

[StretchCT]

El Nino escalated quickly off S America.  Already +2.7

[StretchCT]

Near 2 by late fall, like 2015 maybe?

Edited April 11, 2023 by StretchCT

[so_whats_happening]

Remember 1+2 is extremely volatile. With the wave surfacing from what I believe was the strong WWB (Westerly Wind Burst) event that occurred from the beginning and middle of February this began to surface in mid to late March with the help of a smaller WWB that took place exclusively over the eastern Pac. We see the results of the semi coupled wave and wind setup. This was the rather robust MJO phase 8 response we saw you can see from the hovmollers the easterly movement through 7/8/1 with the warm colors as the WWB areas. You also have the trailing cooling portion that is in response to the wave progression If we are to really see an El Nino and a moderate to strong one as some models show we need continued large MJO responses to cause strong wind events, hurricane season should also start to help with wind events as well unless we are quiet in the western Pac, Speaking of which check out the warm/ cool tongue pattern over the western PAC. It may not be a robust season but we may have low latitude typhoons being a thing to get that wind response with a non active MJO in summer.

Here are hovmollers for the past 90 days, SST anomalies with thermocline, and global SST anom as well. Again you can see a rather intense surfacing in the eastern Pac (coastal Peru) would also like to see this begin to surface further west without trades picking up over much of the pacific (neutral anomalies would bring about a better potential), we need more response and sustaining back toward Nino 3. Another factor in all of this is we need to see those waters across Australia cool, there have been some intense rain events over Australia much of the winter. When we see an El Nino couple you want to see the Maritime region cool off with the western IO warming up more than the Maritime region to create a +IOD pattern. Trades picking up across the western IO is not a good way to have things couple properly. I do not see the west coast US/ Canada cooling dieing off quickly and us across the western Atlantic cooling off anytime soon. The pattern is trying to break here and there but it has been steadfast for some time now and it is really impressive to see happen. That -PDO will give this potential El Nino a rough go and im not so sure we go full fledged this year, still very much thinking warm neutral (maybe weak El Nino) may be the way to go until we see some rather stark changes. 

I also included OLR anoms red is sinking air blue is convective atmosphere. Need to see this shift so the next month or so will be interesting to watch what may happen. It may be a hot summer if this pattern does not break down for many areas of the OH Valley/ Mid Atlantic/ SE and TN River Valley region. 

[TheComet]

On 4/11/2023 at 6:43 PM, StretchCT said:

El Nino escalated quickly off S America.  Already +2.7

I can attest to that. I was in Lima, Peru March 31 - April 8th. Went for a dip in the pacific ocean and the water was quite warm 🙂

[kakadu]

Any thoughts on europe? There is alot on the line with regard to energy security etc. A cold winter like 2012/2013 would wreak economic havoc in europe and ofcourse affect the rest of the world too (ripple effects, not even Kansas, USA, would be unaffected). 

[StLweatherjunkie]

Hot take: this is your 2023-24 winter pattern preview:

[kakadu]

Well that pattern would make for a mild european winter (atlantic breaking thru) but what makes you think that this pattern will be typical for the next winter season?

[MaineJay]

2 hours ago, kakadu said:

Well that pattern would make for a mild european winter (atlantic breaking thru) but what makes you think that this pattern will be typical for the next winter season?

Welcome from across the pond! 

  I can't speak for @StLweatherjunkie, but it could simply be a little red meat tossed for the eastern US winter weather lovers, this past winter was fairly snow-less south of 42°N.

  While El Niño seems a real possibility, there's a long was to go before we know how ENSO will end up.  But, if we do assume a very early developing El Niño, there are 2 instances since 1950.

They looked like this. I don't necessarily believe this will be the pattern, but I suppose it's a possibility. Seasonal forecasting is just so difficult.  I believe Siberia had relatively low snow cover this year winter, and this pattern would likely reflect/result in more snow.  

500mb

850 temps

 

[StLweatherjunkie]

4 hours ago, kakadu said:

Well that pattern would make for a mild european winter (atlantic breaking thru) but what makes you think that this pattern will be typical for the next winter season?

Not sure about Europe, but western conus troughing was the dominant cool season pattern. The graphic I posted shows at least the fourth large, slow-moving closed low across the eastern conus already this spring ... Something that wasn't seen at all during winter.

As far as I'm concerned, it's mother nature providing a clue for the next cool season. 

[kakadu]

Hm Siberia is not so important for Europe (as in anything west of Russia) as freezing cold over Northeast America, flowing onto the Atlantic at Newfoundland, triggering the lows coming to Europe would be. The cold is always there in Siberia, in every winter, it is the winds coming from the west that keeps it away.

 

Even if it turns into something northwestern with some cold and snow, such winters can't be cold enough to trouble us. 

But if the dominant circulation from west to east is absent then anything can happen. Even just a large, stable high over Europe and clear skies over night are enough to produce the cold locally, no arctic outbreak or winds coming from Siberia needed, remember how much further north we are than the US is centered at. I remember how, I think, Madrid is on about the same latitude as New York City.

Leisure value of weather is a luxury Europe doesn't have for at least another winter. We run out of gas in january, the scenarios show, if it is one of those winters that luckily have become the exception in recent memory. Then, one by one, most of industry would have to shut down to divert energy towards heating and electricity generation to keep the lights on, essential services. An economic situation worse than during any covid lockdown, which would be felt far and wide around the globe. 

 

I guess my hope is that we can prepare a little better if we get an early warning. And living that close to the edge is kind of unsettling. I know this isn't a place of politics and I don't want to change that, just wanted to let you know where I am coming from, literally and so to speak.

Edited April 23, 2023 by kakadu

[MaineJay]

On 4/23/2023 at 5:00 PM, kakadu said:

Hm Siberia is not so important for Europe (as in anything west of Russia) as freezing cold over Northeast America, flowing onto the Atlantic at Newfoundland, triggering the lows coming to Europe would be. The cold is always there in Siberia, in every winter, it is the winds coming from the west that keeps it away.

 

Even if it turns into something northwestern with some cold and snow, such winters can't be cold enough to trouble us. 

But if the dominant circulation from west to east is absent then anything can happen. Even just a large, stable high over Europe and clear skies over night are enough to produce the cold locally, no arctic outbreak or winds coming from Siberia needed, remember how much further north we are than the US is centered at. I remember how, I think, Madrid is on about the same latitude as New York City.

Leisure value of weather is a luxury Europe doesn't have for at least another winter. We run out of gas in january, the scenarios show, if it is one of those winters that luckily have become the exception in recent memory. Then, one by one, most of industry would have to shut down to divert energy towards heating and electricity generation to keep the lights on, essential services. An economic situation worse than during any covid lockdown, which would be felt far and wide around the globe. 

 

I guess my hope is that we can prepare a little better if we get an early warning. And living that close to the edge is kind of unsettling. I know this isn't a place of politics and I don't want to change that, just wanted to let you know where I am coming from, literally and so to speak.

  I don't disagree with your points.  I should've clarified that my Siberian reference was more to the potential for a pattern very different from this past winter.  That isn't to say all areas will be opposite, but the La Niña has ended, so ENSO will likely be different, perhaps significantly for 2023-24.

   I'd also add that arctic sea ice was quite different in the 60s and 70s, so those analogs I posted my show features that might manifest differently some 50 years later in an early forming El Niño.

   And I'm certainly sympathetic to you energy concerns about the ramifications of a brutal European winter. Most of our members here are snow lovers during the winter time, so please excuse that focus, as it's certainly not meant to be apathetic to concerns about people not being able to heat their houses.

[so_whats_happening]

Well certainly things will really kick off with this next round. Lets see if we can flip the PDO in time we have been slowly squashing the ridge in the east major changes in SST anoms in the NW Atlantic with the constant Low pressure warming west coast SST.

[Grace]

#1 analog 1977-78 

 

 

 

...I kid