February 2, 2023 Mid-Atlantic Snow | Groundhog Day

[bigben89]

I'll take a stab at creating a thread for what looks like (at this time) a cold front passage with some snow/ice potential. With the less than eventful winter thus far, why not get excited about a cold front passage?!?!? Looks to get cold afterward too, hence the cold front..... IDK... Good luck!

Edited January 26, 2023 by bigben89

[Iceresistance]

This one looks really big, to start February with a BANG!

[BuckeyeGal]

You go, @bigben89! Rooting for your Snowpacalypse!

[Penn State]

I've been thinking about this period for a few days, but I didn't pull the trigger on the thread. With that being said.. I did do some research. One of the analogs was February 8-12th of 1994. There was an ice and snow event that was fairly significant (made it to the NESIS rankings). I actually watched some of the original Weather Channel coverage on YouTube, and some it looked familiar to the modeling. There was even talk of California floods.. which also just happened. 

[twinmama08]

3 hours ago, bigben89 said:

I'll take a stab at creating a thread for what looks like (at this time) a cold front passage with some snow/ice potential. With the less than eventful winter thus far, why not get excited about a cold front passage?!?!? Looks to get cold afterward too, hence the cold front..... IDK... Good luck!

The last part of your opening summed up winter so far.... "IDK... Good Luck!"  😁 😁

[Penn State]

2 small overrunning type events, one during this timeframe, one just before. GDPS was similar, a little weaker and more supressed.

[MaineJay]

We're probably gonna have to change the title, as the FROPA looks non existent now.  Not surprising to see the GFS back of from phasing 7 days out.

@bigben89this threat meant for the northeast/Mid-Atl I'm assuming?

There's gonna be a stalled baroclinic zone in the eastern CONUS.  There's actually quite a few smaller chances at wintry precip for various locations in the medium term.   The models seem to be struggling more with these lower amplitude waves (also not surprising) moving through relatively fast flow.

    

[Penn State]

2 hours ago, MaineJay said:

We're probably gonna have to change the title, as the FROPA looks non existent now.  Not surprising to see the GFS back of from phasing 7 days out.

@bigben89this threat meant for the northeast/Mid-Atl I'm assuming?

There's gonna be a stalled baroclinic zone in the eastern CONUS.  There's actually quite a few smaller chances at wintry precip for various locations in the medium term.   The models seem to be struggling more with these lower amplitude waves (also not surprising) moving through relatively fast flow.

    

If you believe the ECMWF.. looks like there’s 3 waves. 1/30-31, 2/1-2/2, and the then 2/4-2/5.. I think the GFS shows something similar with several waves. There’s a lot to be sorted out lol 

[TLChip]

All the models have been showing random waves but nothing stuck out to me overall. Late next week I saw a few big EC storms but we know how that’s gone this winter. 

Edited January 26, 2023 by TLChip

[bigben89]

Go figure, the FROPA threat... POOF.... gone! Well, hopefully this will materialize into something for those south of the Mason Dixon.

[MaineJay]

1 hour ago, Penn State said:

If you believe the ECMWF.. looks like there’s 3 waves. 1/30-31, 2/1-2/2, and the then 2/4-2/5.. I think the GFS shows something similar with several waves. There’s a lot to be sorted out lol 

Split flow.

I think it's still possible to get a good storm somewhere in here. There's a nice Hudson Bay vortex during this period, and coupled with that Alaskan ridge, arctic shortwaves have a pathway.  

  Now, the general pattern this winter is dump west, bleed east, so gotta watch for that.  I know it can be called "threat the needle", but almost all big storms are, especially phased ones.

   It's that hour 96-120 when we would want to see some close, but not there runs. I admittedly have been taking threats one at a time, so haven't given the medium-long range threats a while lot of attention. But seems like there's some slight, but non-negligible threats, interestingly for now southern areas, but I don't want to get hopes up.

  

[MaineJay]

There's a trof that's going to slide down the west coast, briefly vacation in the 4 corners area, and then eject east.  Timing of this when with any northern stream energy is what we need.  The aforementioned trof impinges on the PAC NW in about 3 days, and takes a 2 day scenic trip down the Pacific coast highway.

   Lots of time for interesting solutions to pop up.

GEFS

 

[clm]

Looks like GFS has other ideas now.   Going further south.  Euro showing much much further south.  Had to zoom out to US just to see it.

 

[JDClapper]

Interior PA, 0z EPS quite a few members saw something around 2/1, another batch saw something on 2/2. Better than flatlining. Also, I assure you there is not 1.2" snowdepth currently. Lol

[MaineJay]

Some interesting ones in there.

[telejunkie]

I'm just surprised to see an actual "clipper-like system" coming through the flow this weekend.

GFS sends this one off the Outer Banks and out to sea....CMC sends it from Baton Rouge almost due north to the Lakes. Hoping we can get something in the middle....

[JDClapper]

For posterity, 12z EPS still has a low prob "bump" for some white on 2/1 in interior PA. We wont discuss the filth the op spit out for 2/4.

[StretchCT]

I like this period too, since there is allegedly some cold air available. It seems we go from this lukewarm pattern to a cold pattern and back to lukewarm.  So two opps to tap cold air while transitioning. 

On the other hand, with the way this year is going, I could see it snowing in NC/VA and storms being pushed to our south during this time.

[Pghsnow]

JMA @144

 

Edited January 26, 2023 by Pghsnow

[Sentinel]

1 hour ago, StretchCT said:

I like this period too, since there is allegedly some cold air available. It seems we go from this lukewarm pattern to a cold pattern and back to lukewarm.  So two opps to tap cold air while transitioning. 

On the other hand, with the way this year is going, I could see it snowing in NC/VA and storms being pushed to our south during this time.

If this period produces nothing, I am going to root for an all out shutout for NYC. 

[MaineJay]

So we have a Hudson Bay vortex that may or may not drive a piece of energy down.  The ECMWF and CMC are a bit more progressive with the northern stream, sending anything from there along westward, at relatively higher latitude .

GFS isn't that deep either, but it tries to eject the SW trof in a manner that's closer to phasing, but still not there.

 CMC and ECMWF are slower with the SW trof, and bring energy through the PAC NW (GFS is quite shallow with this energy), and try to phase with the southern energy.  

 

[Sentinel]

25 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

So we have a Hudson Bay vortex that may or may not drive a piece of energy down.  The ECMWF and CMC are a bit more progressive with the northern stream, sending anything from there along westward, at relatively higher latitude .

GFS isn't that deep either, but it tries to eject the SW trof in a manner that's closer to phasing, but still not there.

 CMC and ECMWF are slower with the SW trof, and bring energy through the PAC NW (GFS is quite shallow with this energy), and try to phase with the southern energy.  

 

Wonderful analysis as always brother. 

[MaineJay]

Lots of varied potentials, spatially and timing wise.  An overwhelming signal? By no means.  Have to watch the timing of the SW low ejection, as well as how northern stream impulses ride through the flow.  

[Herricane]

WfMZ has 3-5 inches of snow for us down here northeast of Baltimore Friday night 2/3. LOCK IT IN

[Wtkidz]

Well  Sterling says who knows….

 

Quote

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Most precipitation is expected to diminish by the late morning hours
on Monday behind an initial frontal passage. Temperatures for the
afternoon should be slightly above normal for this time of year.
This will likely be shortlived as a system approaches from the deep
south by Tuesday. This is where the forecast becomes challenging
with respect to what type of precipitation to expect (if any)
Tuesday night into Wednesday. 00z global guidance is quite far from
agreement into terms of what to expect overnight Tuesday and into
early Wednesday. The general consensus is that by the late evening,
temperatures should begin to trend colder, even getting closer to at
or below freezing. The temperature gradient during this time will be
crucial with precipitation types for the event if a wetter solution
is realized. For now, higher confidence exists for a wintry mix
solution across the Allegheny Front (mostly snow) and areas along
the MD-PA border. This system favors an overrunning precip pattern
which can suggest freezing rain to be a common occurrence given the
profiles for similar events. Confidence is low as of now for this
event but will definitely be worth monitoring over the next several
days leading up to the potential event.

Temperatures will likely fluctuate a bit Wednesday into Thursday,
leading to lesser aerial coverage of wintry precipitation but
nonetheless still holding the possibility, especially across the
Allegheny Front. This midweek system will eventually move further
offshore by the end of the workweek and allow for improving sky
conditions and a bit ridging to look forward to at least for the
start of next weekend.

 

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Most precipitation is expected to diminish by the late morning hours
on Monday behind an initial frontal passage. Temperatures for the
afternoon should be slightly above normal for this time of year.
This will likely be shortlived as a system approaches from the deep
south by Tuesday. This is where the forecast becomes challenging
with respect to what type of precipitation to expect (if any)
Tuesday night into Wednesday. 00z global guidance is quite far from
agreement into terms of what to expect overnight Tuesday and into
early Wednesday. The general consensus is that by the late evening,
temperatures should begin to trend colder, even getting closer to at
or below freezing. The temperature gradient during this time will be
crucial with precipitation types for the event if a wetter solution
is realized. For now, higher confidence exists for a wintry mix
solution across the Allegheny Front (mostly snow) and areas along
the MD-PA border. This system favors an overrunning precip pattern
which can suggest freezing rain to be a common occurrence given the
profiles for similar events. Confidence is low as of now for this
event but will definitely be worth monitoring over the next several
days leading up to the potential event.

Temperatures will likely fluctuate a bit Wednesday into Thursday,
leading to lesser aerial coverage of wintry precipitation but
nonetheless still holding the possibility, especially across the
Allegheny Front. This midweek system will eventually move further
offshore by the end of the workweek and allow for improving sky
conditions and a bit ridging to look forward to at least for the7
start of next weekend.