January 24-25, 2023 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm

[MesoscaleBanding]

Welp - here's another one to watch. Been showing up consistently on all models, so here's a thread to focus the discussion. 12z GEFS shows a mean track that would be a sight for sore eyes...

 

[MesoscaleBanding]

12z Canadian...

 

[MesoscaleBanding]

12z GFS:

 

[MesoscaleBanding]

0z Euro

 

[MesoscaleBanding]

GEFS mean snowfall axis...Looks to favor the I-70 & I-80 corridors

 

[BuckeyeGal]

One of these buggers has to make us lower Ohio Valley folks happy.

[junior]

As with any storm, this one is rather close on the trail of the previous system(s) so we'll need to watch for wave interference and baroclinic zones.

[MesoscaleBanding]

Euro barrels almost due north straight out of the GOM...

 

[MesoscaleBanding]

Oklahoma, Missouri, IL, MI do well with that Euro scenario...

 

 

[MesoscaleBanding]

Best looking potential for the OV since the pre-Christmas blizzard

 

[mafa]

That was an interesting path but the potential is certainly there. Fun tracking times ahead ( well, hopefully fun!)

[BuckeyeGal]

55 minutes ago, mafa said:

That was an interesting path but the potential is certainly there. Fun tracking times ahead ( well, hopefully fun!)

Finally! lol.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

18z was a qpf BOMB but closed off for a majority of it life until it finally caught on 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Just to show I would not use the term lightly lol

[Ohiobuckeye45]

00z GFS was a little toasty

[Ohiobuckeye45]

As was the cmc...both could use a MUCH bigger shove of cold air

[Ohiobuckeye45]

[StLweatherjunkie]

First impression is this looks very similar to the December blizzard. Subtropical system in the southeast with all the moisture, Arctic low bringing the cold near Minnesota, and a glorified cold front in the middle. Tough to say the result will be the same, but the lakes are still ice free so I'm struggling to buy a substantially farther south storm system.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

This is as close as it got, the euro has a substantially further SE pattern in general due to its variations on how strong the SE ridge is

[StLweatherjunkie]

30 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

This is as close as it got, the euro has a substantially further SE pattern in general due to its variations on how strong the SE ridge is

It could be worth remembering that the December blizzard was first advertised as a major east coast storm. It's uncanny how similar this Euro run was to those earlier solutions for the December storm. This makes me want to ignore all the east coast solutions and instead focus on the GLC solutions ... quite a few 980s and even a couple 970s in there. EDIT: also some signal for a ~1040 mb ridge near Montana suggesting an impressive pressure gradient but not quite on the same level as the December storm. 

Edited January 17, 2023 by StLweatherjunkie

[MidMichiganWx]

Lots of activity in the next few weeks. Something has to pan out. 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

stays closed off this run longer and less of a push of cold air (seems to be a theme in this upcoming parade of storms) expecting this run to be a cutter.....which last run was suppression 😄 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

 

Edited January 17, 2023 by Ohiobuckeye45

[Ohiobuckeye45]

[MesoscaleBanding]

1 hour ago, MidMichiganWx said:

Lots of activity in the next few weeks. Something has to pan out.