March 22-24, 2024 | NE /NY Winter Storm

[Penn State]

I'm planning to mow the lawn for the first time on Wednesday.. and.. the snow blower is getting placed neatly in the back of the shed.. So, this is definitely going to happen. lol.. 

So.. all of those who have been in hibernation (including me).. come on out! 

[TLChip]

25 minutes ago, Penn State said:

So.. all of those who have been in hibernation (including me).. come on out! 

I had to google this because I was curious if there was a warm weather term… well there is!

Hibernation or “winter sleep” is the state of inactivity or low metabolic process animals perform during winter. Aestivation or “summer sleep”, on the other hand, is the low metabolic process by the animals during summer.

So as the warm weather comes I guess we are technically aestivating?  It seems to be saved for animals surviving in the dry hot climates. Anything above 32 is hot for us winter lovers right? 😂

[twinmama08]

We mowed yesterday.   Lock it in!

[JDClapper]

0z EPS caught my attn a little this morming. A cluster of members liking the C-3" event Fri night in NCPA.

 

 

[clm]

3 hours ago, Penn State said:

I'm planning to mow the lawn for the first time on Wednesday.. and.. the snow blower is getting placed neatly in the back of the shed.. So, this is definitely going to happen. lol.. 

So.. all of those who have been in hibernation (including me).. come on out! 

 

[telejunkie]

Just for the good S&G factor....12z GFS bringing upwards of 4ft to Northern VT mountains. It's all about the phase....

[ZLearned]

Well, winter isn’t over in Vermont until mid May so bring it on I guess. 😔

[MaineJay]

Would be nice to get some snow up to sugarloaf.  I know a few folks who were hoping to ski and see the eclipse up there. 

[MaineJay]

It would be unusual if no snow fell in March. 

[MaineJay]

GYX

Quote

The forecast for the weekend has shifted significantly since 24
hours ago as the Euro and it`s ensembles have tracked
northwestward by several hundred miles with the weekend system,
a solution the GFS alone was showing yesterday. This appears to
be in part from a shortwave in the northern branch being more
amplified on Saturday, and the high being located further north,
rather than across New England. Now, the northern system alone
looks to have the potential to bring accumulating snow to much
of the area on Saturday, while another stronger storm develops
off the Carolina coast.

The break in the ridge provided by the northern branch
shortwave allows the southern storm with its rich moisture to be
drawn further north. The GFS is now showing a solution where
the northern branch phases more with the southern system, and
the Euro is very close to making this solution happen as well.
Several Euro ensemble members are showing this now, and we will
need to monitor if this trend continues over the next few runs.
With such a large shift in the Euro from last night, it`s not
unreasonable to think it will shift further to more of the
phasing solution, rather than the cut off low off the Carolina
coast solution. If this happens, there is then much more
moisture in play with the system for New England, and a
rain/snow line this would be highly dependent on the track. With
multiple shortwaves, a potential cut off low, and a strong high
present, there are many moving parts that will need to be
sorted out over the next day or two before a clearer picture
arises.

 

[HVSNOWSTORM]

1 hour ago, MaineJay said:

It would be unusual if no snow fell in March. 

Yes even down here. I only remember 1 March in the last 10 + years with no snow here

[StretchCT]

Contrary to popular belief, getting little snow in March is fairly common in the Hartford area.  And surprising to me is that it's not a recent trend.  Its distributed fairly evenly. Even more interesting to me is that many if not most of the years that had no snow in March had snow in April

This is the last 20 years.  It's really all over the board. 

Edited March 19, 2024 by StretchCT

[clm]

34 on the way to work.  No snow forecasted, just colder weather this week.  Rain forecasted for later this week.  

[LUCC]

Going to be a monsoon in the S. MidAtl, be sure those sump pumps are in working order. 

[LUCC]

[TLChip]

Thunder snow on Washington again? Had it last weekend. 

[TheComet]

1 hour ago, LUCC said:

Cold chasing rain, similar story of winters past in Mid Atl

[StretchCT]

Looks like both GFS and Euro at 12z have the northern stream system moving ahead of the southern system so it turns into a frontal passage over NYC area but still some snow north of CT.  Whether or not the low from the southern system rides up the front and who gets blasted with rain remains open. Actually so does the whole thing as it's only one run.  

Anyway, bets would be that we get 2-3 inches of rain from this one, probably quickly too.  Maybe another 2-3 from one more system before March ends.  Could end up with 8" of rain this month. 

Considering we got 9.04 in January, 10.52 in December,10.74 in September, 8.91 in July we may be in a spot to have the most rain in a 12 month period. 

[MaineJay]

The appetizer tomorrow night could be a quick couple inches.

[ionizer]

at this point, just snow in vermont please, going skiing there after this timeframe

[telejunkie]

Both 12z NAM and RGEM bringing the phased solution....although I like the RGEM's version with a colder solution...

Edited March 20, 2024 by telejunkie

[StretchCT]

22 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Looks like both GFS and Euro at 12z have the northern stream system moving ahead of the southern system so it turns into a frontal passage over NYC area but still some snow north of CT.  Whether or not the low from the southern system rides up the front and who gets blasted with rain remains open. Actually so does the whole thing as it's only one run.  

Anyway, bets would be that we get 2-3 inches of rain from this one, probably quickly too.  Maybe another 2-3 from one more system before March ends.  Could end up with 8" of rain this month. 

 

 

Euro shifting west with the precip field.  Still has the north/south separation and north going by faster.

But it's close enough to siphon some qpf out of the southern system. 

 

GFS bopping around a little but pretty steady

The two are not as far apart as yesterday.

And a single stronger system is formed.

Edited March 20, 2024 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

ICON is interesting. It's further east but WOW 9"+ of rain just off NJ.  Watch out if that shifts west. NJ coast already has 5" on this run.

Ukie is similar but with the heaviest off Delmarva

[LUCC]

Congrats Maine....I guess. 😮

[telejunkie]

50 minutes ago, LUCC said:

Congrats Maine....I guess. 😮

I can tell you the ski areas will take anything they can get right now...some are clinging on for dear life right now. Several in this area had to refire their snowmaking guns this week. Used to be that they would never think of turning them on after President's week cause the cost is so high...but they still need to meet season pass holder minimum days open, which i'm guessing would be a much greater liability. So some have had to fire them up a couple times this month just patch together somewhat continuous trails.

A pretty impressive snow squall blowing through right now....ground quickly turned white.