Winter 2022-2023 | Discussion and Outlooks

[MesoscaleBanding]

27 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Where the flip was this back in Jan/Feb?!

[StretchCT]

EPS Temp 5 day anomalies for days 6-10 and 11-15

 

 

Trend for 6-10 - so it may stick as cold

[StretchCT]

GFS loses the cold for the NE.  Of course Maine being above normal just means that it's snowing there.

Edited March 5, 2023 by StretchCT

[MaineJay]

Yesterday's storm puts GYX a bit above average for snowfall to date. 

Quote

WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR
                                                  NORMAL
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
 YESTERDAY
  MAXIMUM         33        MM  MM      MM  38     -5       29
  MINIMUM         26        MM  -4    2003  21      5        5
  AVERAGE         30                        29      1       17

PRECIPITATION (IN)
  YESTERDAY        0.93         MM      MM   0.13   0.80     0.00
  MONTH TO DATE    1.24                      0.52   0.72     0.26
  SINCE MAR 1      1.24                      0.52   0.72     0.26
  SINCE JAN 1      9.15                      7.41   1.74     6.31

SNOWFALL (IN)
  YESTERDAY       11.3          MM      MM   0.6   10.7      0.0
  MONTH TO DATE   12.7                       2.6   10.1      3.6
  SINCE MAR 1     12.7                       2.6   10.1      3.6
  SINCE JUL 1     69.4                      65.7    3.7     41.8
  SNOW DEPTH      22

 

[Iceresistance]

MJO in Phase 7, expected to become very strong

[Snowgeek93]

On 3/4/2023 at 12:58 PM, MesoscaleBanding said:

Where the flip was this back in Jan/Feb?!

EXACTLY! Pattern flip waits until March to show up just when we're all getting antsy for spring 🙄

[Al_Czervik]

9 minutes ago, Snowgeek93 said:

EXACTLY! Pattern flip waits until March to show up just when we're all getting antsy for spring 🙄

I expect we will see normal temps again in Mid April.  

 

[MaineJay]

9 minutes ago, Snowgeek93 said:

EXACTLY! Pattern flip waits until March to show up just when we're all getting antsy for spring 🙄

This is when I'm glad that March is squarely a winter month up here.  Yes, we get the occasional early spring, but no one up here gets their hopes up here in March.

[StretchCT]

16 hours ago, Al_Czervik said:

I expect we will see normal temps again in Mid April.  

 

[StretchCT]

March's monthly from yesterday

Bear in mind this is February's forecast

[Psu1313]

8 hours ago, StretchCT said:

March's monthly from yesterday

Bear in mind this is February's forecast

I absolutely expect those blues in the mid Atlantic and Ohio valley to turn back a light orange. Will it get cold over the next week to 10 days? Sure. This is really a 3 day arctic outbreak with a cool anomaly for a few days surrounding it. Where is the blocking to lock the cold air in place? Where is the +PNA? What is more likely due is that we get ridging to return to the SE over the last 3rd of April promoting a warmer than average regime. I believe the early month warmth plus the late month warmth will override any below average weather for the month of March in the east. I was a bit early on the cold pool as I thought it would launch a week earlier. 
hopefully we can all cash in a bit next week before the 17th.

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, Psu1313 said:

I absolutely expect those blues in the mid Atlantic and Ohio valley to turn back a light orange. Will it get cold over the next week to 10 days? Sure. This is really a 3 day arctic outbreak with a cool anomaly for a few days surrounding it. Where is the blocking to lock the cold air in place? Where is the +PNA? What is more likely due is that we get ridging to return to the SE over the last 3rd of April promoting a warmer than average regime. I believe the early month warmth plus the late month warmth will override any below average weather for the month of March in the east. I was a bit early on the cold pool as I thought it would launch a week earlier. 
hopefully we can all cash in a bit next week before the 17th.

I wanna say you meant March instead of April here in bold. Overall the last push of cold was expected around mid month/3rd week of March. The models have been playing around as to how to bring that down whether a few days before or after mid month (my thoughts initially were around the 17th, but then we had some models showing up with a brief neutral push for the PNA so they seemed to have pushed it to an earlier timeframe for now). We haven't really had a +PNA at all most of the winter and when we did we lost any blocking which allowed most of the country to be ridgy for January and February with a +EPO as well, this was rough to see happen. Not sure why folks expected this to change into a +PNA in tandem with a -NAO. We do have a -EPO pattern currently so that suggests cold can be pushed into the CONUS but lack of +PNA means it dumps west like it has been and migrates east. Now that we have a -NAO sitting around it is quite honestly following in the exact same footsteps as the December period. If it follows almost lock step we should end the month overall across the country slightly below average except maybe the SE/deep south. 

I would expect after the 22nd for things to trail off and probably be more average like across the area so let us see if we can have a balancing act or push the needle into negative territory for the month. I am still expecting a rather large storm to occur to do the final drive of cold and scoot out the -NAO. March 11-12th storm at one point looked like it but not as likely now. There does seem to be a storm signal showing up around the 14th now that may in fact be that potential. Which is what should bring in the last cold bout. After this it is uncertain as we push into the spring barrier and we see just how much can change with MJO and subsurface in the tropical waters.

My feeling is we have a rather stagnant push out of La Nina/ cold neutral as we move into spring and early summer. Think we may push into warm neutral territory by summer and early fall which may push into weak Nino territory for a bit going into next winter. This transition sets us up for a potential fairly active severe weather pattern continuing into spring for areas of TN river valley/ Dixie alley and SE lower Mid Atlantic. Of course this idea is still rather far out so anything past mid month should really be taken with a grain of salt still.

[Psu1313]

14 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

I wanna say you meant March instead of April here in bold. Overall the last push of cold was expected around mid month/3rd week of March. The models have been playing around as to how to bring that down whether a few days before or after mid month (my thoughts initially were around the 17th, but then we had some models showing up with a brief neutral push for the PNA so they seemed to have pushed it to an earlier timeframe for now). We haven't really had a +PNA at all most of the winter and when we did we lost any blocking which allowed most of the country to be ridgy for January and February with a +EPO as well, this was rough to see happen. Not sure why folks expected this to change into a +PNA in tandem with a -NAO. We do have a -EPO pattern currently so that suggests cold can be pushed into the CONUS but lack of +PNA means it dumps west like it has been and migrates east. Now that we have a -NAO sitting around it is quite honestly following in the exact same footsteps as the December period. If it follows almost lock step we should end the month overall across the country slightly below average except maybe the SE/deep south. 

I would expect after the 22nd for things to trail off and probably be more average like across the area so let us see if we can have a balancing act or push the needle into negative territory for the month. I am still expecting a rather large storm to occur to do the final drive of cold and scoot out the -NAO. March 11-12th storm at one point looked like it but not as likely now. There does seem to be a storm signal showing up around the 14th now that may in fact be that potential. Which is what should bring in the last cold bout. After this it is uncertain as we push into the spring barrier and we see just how much can change with MJO and subsurface in the tropical waters.

My feeling is we have a rather stagnant push out of La Nina/ cold neutral as we move into spring and early summer. Think we may push into warm neutral territory by summer and early fall which may push into weak Nino territory for a bit going into next winter. This transition sets us up for a potential fairly active severe weather pattern continuing into spring for areas of TN river valley/ Dixie alley and SE lower Mid Atlantic. Of course this idea is still rather far out so anything past mid month should really be taken with a grain of salt still.

Good catch. Yes I do mean March. I think where we disagree is the strength of the cold anomalies in the East. I believe that we will erode departures quicker under the March sun providing slightly above average aggregates. The first 7 days started out much above average. I see about 4-6 days of below average and maybe 2 or 3 days of well below average temps.

the transition to spring is going to be something. I wish I scheduled a trip to storm chase this year. 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

[so_whats_happening]

6 hours ago, Psu1313 said:

Good catch. Yes I do mean March. I think where we disagree is the strength of the cold anomalies in the East. I believe that we will erode departures quicker under the March sun providing slightly above average aggregates. The first 7 days started out much above average. I see about 4-6 days of below average and maybe 2 or 3 days of well below average temps.

the transition to spring is going to be something. I wish I scheduled a trip to storm chase this year. 

Yea thats a fair point. Lets see how we do for friday/saturday system because the cold may actually have some bite if we get a large system. But i do agree as we head toward the last week or so of the month we surely will have be back to average if not slightly above especially as the mjo wave is forecasted to null. Should relax the pattern a bit.

[Hiramite]

These maps are pretty cool.

 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

32 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

These maps are pretty cool.

 

warmest winter on record for us huh? It can only get better for next year right?  😁..........right..........RIGHT?!