November 8-10, 2023 | NE Light Snow Potential

[Penn State]

As a winter weather enthusiast.. I have a tendency to get excited as we approach this time of the year. Of course, when the models begin hinting at potential snowfall.. I start speculating with friends and family; and each year my father tells me not before Thanksgiving. He tends to be right most of the time! 😜 Nevertheless, I will continue to speculate and hope for an early season blanket of white. So, friends.. 🤓 we embark on another winter season of excitement and disappoints, of laughs and tears, of forecasting and leaning. I cannot imagine a winter season without this crew.. and look forward to experiencing it with all of you! 

Now.. This 2023-‘24 season has been accompanied by great anticipation. 🤔 The La Niña of several winters’ past has subsided for a forecasted El Niño. An active storm track for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast appears more likely than not, and arctic air appears to be building to the north with frequent intrusions modeled on the long range seasonal forecasts. The general consensus seems to be that this is an opportunistic winter pattern with boom and bust potential; however, only time will tell! 

So.. Let’s get the party started! Actually.. @telejunkie got the party started with the first winter storm threat for the start of November.. but he also egged me on to create a thread for this.. Anyways, I’ll begin with a historical analog. 🧐 On October 25th, 2005 a winter storm impacted interior parts of the Northeast. This event was not widespread.. and not particularly potent.. but it was impactful for higher elevations. You can read about it here in a breakdown narrated by the NWS in Binghamton. It just so happens that late October 2005 occupies two of the top three analogs according to the CPC’s 8-14 day forecast. Could history repeat in a similar form? It may.. and it would provide the first significant snowfall for many in the NE. Of course, many on the forum are hoping for more.. maybe a touch more like that one epic run of the GFS that depicted a hurricane lifting into an arctic air mass to create a Storm of the Century (54” of digital snow in Maine! 😮).. but that is definitely (99.9% sure) not going to happen. What we do have are relatively favorable teleconnections (-AO, -NAO) and an MJO in phases 7 and 8. The PNA is negative / neutral.. so  that indicates the map may be a bit flat. There’s a signal according to the BSR for this timeframe, and the ensembles have relative agreement on the placement of a storm given the lead time. I would not say that I am confident in an impactful event.. but I wouldn’t rule it out either. Regardless, let’s get some discussion going! Happy Tracking! 🤓

12z Ensembles | Hour 216 

GEFS 

EPS

CMCE

WPC Forecast | Day 7 

Spoiler

12z Operational Models | Hours 180-228

GFS

Surface 

500 MB

ECMWF 

Surface 

500 MB 

GDPS 

Surface

500 MB 

Teleconnections | NAO, AO, PNA, MJO

NAO

AO

PNA

MJO

BSR 

Analog 

 

Edited November 8, 2023 by Penn State

[TheRex]

The 00z ECMWF likes this time frame also.

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[telejunkie]

So they're saying there's a chance....

[telejunkie]

This is still a volatile period, both CMC and Euro close to something bigger. Will keep tracking....

[HVSNOWSTORM]

[1816]

5 hours ago, HVSNOWSTORM said:

Ok so starting to see some of these would be a great sign

[TheRex]

Ice looks to be a bigger issue than snow in these area.

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[TheRex]

18Z NAM heavy on the ice in the Catskills, Berkshires, Adirondacks, Greens and Whites.

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[TheRex]

BTV's forecast discussion on Wednesday night's event.  It looks like the worst of it will be to my south.

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.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 328 PM EST Monday...Unseasonably cold weather is the main story
for Wednesday. A lobe of polar air that dropped southeastward
Tuesday night will settle into the region as high pressure follows
behind. The air mass can be characterized by 850 millibar
temperatures near 12 to 14 degrees below zero Celsius, roughly
typical of mid-winter. With this cold air mass aloft only slightly
moderating during the day, even good mixing will bring temperatures
only up into the mid and upper 30s for most spots during the
afternoon. Breezy northwest winds will produce wind chills in the
teens to low 20s during the morning with some improvement as the day
wears on.

The secondary weather story will be light precipitation. During the
morning, we will see some snow showers in northern Vermont diminish
with advection of drier air aloft. While not explicitly forecast,
favorable temperatures for snow growth could lead to flurries where
skies remain overcast through at least the first half of the day,
especially in favorable upslope locations. Then by late Wednesday
night, we will be focused on the next system, a warm front that will
be pushing northeastward bringing a wave of light widespread
precipitation. Given that a ridge of high pressure will still be
overhead Wednesday night and dry air mass, temperatures should fall
back below freezing in advance of the precipitation, setting the
stage for potentially impactful winter weather. Onset time is an
important forecast, and the best guess at this point is
unfortunately daybreak, generally spreading southwest to northeast
in the predawn hours. That means greatest chance of a wintry mix
overnight will be in our southern and western areas. Current PoPs at
4 AM show 33-50% chances roughly across Windsor, Rutland, and
Addison County in Vermont and most of northern New York save far
northern areas and northern Champlain Valley. Precipitation type
discussion will be below in the Long Term section.

 

[telejunkie]

12 hours ago, TheRex said:

BTV's forecast discussion on Wednesday night's event.  It looks like the worst of it will be to my south.

 

Looks like I'll be putting on my snow tires tomorrow (and need to change my oil).

[TheRex]

A Winter Weather Advisory was issued for parts of NY and VT.

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Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Burlington VT
322 AM EST Wed Nov 8 2023

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>011-016>021-082100-
/O.NEW.KBTV.WW.Y.0018.231109T0400Z-231109T1800Z/
Northern St. Lawrence-Northern Franklin-Eastern Clinton-
Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Southwestern St. Lawrence-Grand Isle-
Western Franklin-Orleans-Essex-Western Chittenden-Lamoille-
Caledonia-Washington-Western Addison-Orange-Western Rutland-
Eastern Franklin-Eastern Chittenden-Eastern Addison-
Eastern Rutland-Western Windsor-Eastern Windsor-
Including the cities of Massena, Norfolk, Fort Covington, Malone,
Champlain, Plattsburgh, South Colton, Star Lake, Saranac Lake,
Tupper Lake, Dannemora, Ellenburg, Lake Placid, Newcomb,
Port Henry, Ticonderoga, Ogdensburg, Potsdam, Gouverneur,
Alburgh, South Hero, St. Albans, Swanton, Derby, Newport,
Island Pond, Lunenburg, Burlington, Shelburne, Johnson, Stowe,
Hardwick, St. Johnsbury, Montpelier, Waitsfield, Middlebury,
Vergennes, Bradford, Randolph, Fair Haven, Rutland,
Enosburg Falls, Richford, Richmond, Underhill, Bristol, Ripton,
East Wallingford, Killington, Bethel, Ludlow, Springfield,
and White River Junction
322 AM EST Wed Nov 8 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
1 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
  up to one inch and ice accumulations from a few hundredths to
  one tenth of an inch. Totals will be lower in the Champlain
  Valley.

* WHERE...Northern New York and all of Vermont.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions will likely impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Mixed precipitation will arrive in the
  morning. Air and pavement temperatures will rise throughout the
  day, limiting freezing rain potential in the afternoon. Icy
  conditions are possible, especially on elevated surfaces like
  bridges and overpasses as well as untreated roadways.

 

[TheRex]

It seems BTV decided to predict snow for their entire coverage area, but less than an inch for that area also.  It seems we are all getting the same amount except those that live directly by the lake.

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[bigben89]

Anyone want to take a stab at the long range Nov 21 time frame? LOL

[bigben89]

...and I'm trying to find a form that's off topic, but will wxsphere go subscription only like wxdisco did?

 

Back for the winter!

[TLChip]

1 hour ago, bigben89 said:

will wxsphere go subscription only like wxdisco did?

I don’t believe so. Here’s the mission statement from when they opened the forums. 
 

 

[Penn State]

You know.. It looks like someone in northern New England will get some white stuff out of this, so I’m happy! Make sure to post some pictures folks! 

[MaineJay]

32° and seeing the first flakes of the season.

[MaineJay]

[TheRex]

At 9 am we have 32 degrees and we have received 1 3/4" of snow.  I think we are about done with the frozen precipitation.

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[telejunkie]

Looks like it was mainly a sleet/rain event here. Temperatures have been rising here since 2 am when we bottomed out at 27F, now up to 37F and melting down now...

[TheRex]

On 10/31/2023 at 1:14 PM, telejunkie said:

So they're saying there's a chance....

I don't know how you define heavy snow but this map from October 30 aged well.  

[TheRex]

I ended up being in the axis of the "heavier" snow which received about 2" from this system.

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[bigben89]

https://www.canaanresort.com/resort/webcams/

[BuckeyeGal]

On 11/8/2023 at 1:46 PM, bigben89 said:

...and I'm trying to find a form that's off topic, but will wxsphere go subscription only like wxdisco did?

 

Back for the winter!

That would be a big fat giant NO. :)