July 8 -15, 2023 | Northeast Mid Atlantic Flood Event

[StretchCT]

Flooding is likely tomorrow in the NE particularly.

[MaineJay]

5 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Flooding is likely tomorrow in the NE particularly.

Getting a head start in NH.

[telejunkie]

On 7/7/2023 at 7:34 PM, TheRex said:

Central VT having some flooding issues.  Hopefully everything is ok in @telejunkie's area.  

 

WORCESTER, Vt. (WCAX) - Heavy rain and high winds Friday caused flooding and power outages across the region.

The powerful storms knocked down trees in both Vermont and New York’s North Country.

Upwards of 2,300 households lost power after trees came down on power lines, with some of the hardest hit areas in Addison, Rutland, Windsor, Windham, and Caledonia Counties.

A landslide-covered sections of Route 4 in Killington near the ski sky bridge.

 

On 7/7/2023 at 8:54 PM, StretchCT said:

If you can believe it, barely even saw a sprinkle from all that activity....it went all around me...if I could drop a pin on my town, you'd see that it went north, east, south, and west....but bounced right around me. Killington and Shrewsbury areas took it on the chin. As mentioned in that piece Rte 4 (one of the major east-west corridors in Vermont) was closed with 20 ft. of debris covering it from a landslide. The did get a detour opened though before too long.

For mby, been actually a below normal week for precip...so at least locally, should be able to handle the upcoming deluge (famous last words). But definite concern for some communities already with creeks full. 

[StretchCT]

Not the direction I thought this would be moving when I first saw the still frame. Very slow too.

[TLChip]

Extremely heavy rain, picked up 1.72 in about 35 mins.

[StretchCT]

2hrs and not much movement  in EPA/NNJ/SNY and NWCT for this heavy rain

Hence the flash flood warnings

 

Edited July 9, 2023 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

WX Twitter is all over the flooding potential

 

[StretchCT]

Parts of Litchfield and Rockland counties with over 5"

[TLChip]

Approaching 3”

 

[StretchCT]

Flood reports are coming in

 

[so_whats_happening]

Definitely a localized high spot widespread 1-2" from maryland to maine. The stripe down this way is about 3-6" from millersburg to harrisburg to reading to near allentown. Looks to be very ridge oriented where the max rainfall fell.

[ClicheVortex2014]

WPC seems a little concerned for tomorrow in the Northeast

Quote

Continued increases in both the total amount of rain expected 
across Vermont and northeastern New York prompted much of the 12Z 
guidance, particularly the 12Z HREF to indicate even higher 
chances of exceeding some remarkable thresholds Monday through 
Monday night. 24-hour rainfall totals of 3-5 inches across 
essentially the entire High Risk area, with local amounts 
approaching 12 inches for storm total rainfall over areas that 
have already been particularly hard hit in recent days by heavy 
rains prompted the upgrade. 12Z HREF probabilities indicate a 
70-80% chance of exceeding 5 inches of rain for east-central 
Vermont. This same area has a 45% chance of exceeding 3 hour FFGs 
and a 60-70% chance of exceeding 6 hour FFGs. However, it's 
important to note that these are based on current FFGs, which are 
already low, and will likely come down considerably further as the 
event gets going across VT tonight. As far as 100 year Annual 
Recurrence Intervals go, expect a 60-70% chance of exceeding those 
values of 5-7 inches on the Vermont side of Lake Champlain. With 
all of these thresholds in mind, expect widespread considerable 
flooding impacts across much of Vermont and nearby surrounding 
areas, except perhaps the northeastern corner of the state. As 
everything continues to play out largely as expected, there are 
likely to be scattered Flash Flood Emergencies declared, along 
with mudslides and widespread flash flooding of not only small 
creeks and streams, but also the larger rivers. The widespread 
flooding is expected to be analogous to the 2013 Irene remnants 
event for this area, though this time no tropical storms are 
associated with this rainfall.

Little has changed regarding the overall setup. A surface low 
starting out the day near the Jersey shore will slowly track 
northward to near Boston by Tuesday morning. This will make for a 
prolonged southeasterly flow of deep Atlantic moisture that will 
advect northeastward into the Green and White Mountains. Upper 
level support in the form of a rapidly strengthening negatively 
tilted shortwave trough...a pattern far more common in the cold 
season than mid-July... will enhance synoptic scale lift 
considerably across New England as it lifts northeastward. 
Further, a southwesterly 90 kt upper level jet streak is expected 
to form off the coast, which will support the strengthening 
shortwave, strengthening surface low, and lift which will wring 
out additional moisture. It's never a good thing when nature 
combines cool season upper level dynamics that are completely out 
of place for mid-July with far more typical heat/instability and 
tropical moisture into an area that already has been hard hit with 
heavy rainfall in recent days. Thus, localized catastrophic 
flooding is possible.

 

Edited July 9, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[so_whats_happening]

Thats intense was not aware most of northern new england had plentiful of rain.

[TheRex]

46 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

WPC seems a little concerned for tomorrow in the Northeast

 

Thanks for posting this kind of detail.  I live on the VT side of Champlain.  We've had a lot of rain over the last few weeks so everything here is saturated.  I should be ok because most of the water will run from away from my property.  I feel bad for those living in flood prone areas. 

So far we haven't had a drop of rain today.  We even spent some time in the pool this afternoon and the sun made an appearance.  Things are darkening here and rain should start in the next few hours.  I removed an inch of water from my pool earlier thinking it should help it from over filling.  I guess I should have removed several inches.

Watching this thing moving north is like watching a car crash in slow motion.  I hope everyone stays dry during this event.

[TheRex]

Forecast Discussion from BTV.  I'm a bit worried after reading @ClicheVortex2014's post and reading this discussion.  I guess at this point I should make sure everyone charges their phones just in case we lose electricity.  

It is 5:50 pm and the first thunderstorm is about to hit us.  Watching winter storms is much more fun.

Quote

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
352 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A round of widespread heavy rain arrives this evening into the
overnight hours, with another round expected during the day on
Monday. Expect widespread 2 to 5 inches of rain with locally 7
inches through Monday night. With saturated soil and elevated
river levels from recent rainfall, widespread significant to
potentially catastrophic flash flooding are expected overnight
tonight into Monday night. The heavy rainfall will also lead to
sharp river rises, leading to widespread area and river flooding
through Tuesday. Muggy and unsettled conditions continue
through the rest of the week. The next system to bring rain will
be Thursday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM EDT Sunday...

* Expect significant to potentially catastrophic widespread
  flash flooding through Monday evening, with possible impacts
  not seen since Irene.
* Widespread heavy rainfall of 2-5 inches with localized 7+
  inches will be exacerbated by the saturated soil and elevated
  river levels from all the recent rainfall.
* Scattered strong storms are possible Monday afternoon with the
  risk of an isolated downburst.

The steady rain is already knocking on our doorstep, with dozens of
Flash Flood Warnings just to our south. Heading into this evening,
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will result in brief heavy
or torrential downpours. It is not out of the question that we could
see isolated 1 to 2 inches of rainfall in as little as 30 minutes,
exacerbating saturated ground conditions in areas that have seen a
lot of rain in the last few days. In addition, there will also be
isolated strong to locally severe storms capable of producing
localized damaging winds or downbursts. So be sure to stay weather
aware even prior to the main show.

A combination of satellite imagery and RAP mesoanalysis shows just
how dynamic this system is. Visible satellite shows a mesolow
feature south of Nova Scotia. RAP analysis depicts a deepening
negatively tilted 500mb trough digging into Tennessee. Of note is
that the trough is a little more amplified than modeled. Out
ahead of the digging trough, a line of thunderstorms now
stretches from far southwestern New York to the western Piedmont
region of North Carolina. Then out ahead of it, there is
another blossoming cluster stretching from southeast PA through
the Taconics of northwestern CT. These two features have
developed along a particularly wavy quasistationary front draped
across the Mason-Dixon line to Long Island. The negative H5
trough means that these two clusters will combine and head our
way later this evening into the overnight hours. That`s a lot of
precipitation that will have to move through our region from
south to north. In addition, terrain will help enhance the
rainfall, leading to locally higher rainfall rates near and
along the spine of the Green Mountains. Unfortunately, this also
means that areas that saw damaging flash flooding just a couple
of days ago and are undergoing recovery will get another deluge
of rain. With saturated grounds and elevated stream levels, the
rain will go straight to runoff and lead to widespread
significant, potentially catastrophic flooding. The widespread
rain will overspread the entire CWA overnight tonight, tapering
off towards daybreak tomorrow.

Then, another piece of the stalled boundary south of Long Island
will lift northwards during the day on Monday, leading to the second
round of deluge. This will coincide with an amplified upper trough
right over the spine of the Greens Monday night. The probability of
the 3 hour rainfall exceeding 3 inches according to the HREF
probability matched mean is quite high for this time frame. This
appears to be slightly west than the first deluge overnight tonight,
going up an axis near or along the Hudson Valley into the Champlain
Valley, including the western slopes of the Greens into the
Adirondack area. By Monday night, this becomes more wraparound
precipitation as a cold front crosses northern NY and VT, which
could lead to another inch or two of rain. It almost looks like a
cold season deformation band developing which could lead to a third
round of deluge late Monday into overnight Monday. When it is all
said and done, some locations that get two if not three rounds of
heavy rain could see localized 7 to 8 if not upwards of 10 inches
through Tuesday or in a 48 hour period. This is extremely rare to
historical rainfall, with the HREF 24 hour QPF exceeding 100 year
Average Recurrence Interval (ARI) at 60 to 70 percent probability.
In other words, expect widespread significant to pockets of
catastrophic flooding to unfold in the next 48 hours. All things
considered, upon coordination with WPC and neighboring WFOs, we have
a Day 2 High risk ERO for much of our CWA (Monday 8 AM to Tuesday 8
AM), which means that widespread flash flooding is expected.

The main takeaway is that if you are in a Flood Watch and especially
inside the WPC Moderate and High risk Day 1/2 ERO, please take this
flooding event seriously, have multiple ways to receive real-time
NWS weather alerts and have contingency plans in place.

 

[TheRex]

I hope this is the NAM overdoing things:

Quote

 

[TheRex]

18Z HRRR with some double digit colors in northern NY.

Quote

 

[StretchCT]

More coverage of flooding in NW CT

5 inches of rain in 90 minutes.  Convert to snow and blow your mind

Highland Falls NY

Winchester NH - and it's only just starting

Stony Point NY - I think Rockland County

West Point

 

[StretchCT]

This should have it's own thread. It's seems pretty serious.

(This should've been the first post, but it doesn't work that way)

 

Edited July 10, 2023 by StretchCT

[TheRex]

49 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

This should have it's own thread. It's seems pretty serious.

 

 

Thanks for setting it up.  This looks like an event some people will be talking about for awhile.  

[StretchCT]

Here's a radar estimate of 10+

[StretchCT]

6.96 of rain in 3 hours. 

 

Even up by Rochester

Rescue boats on the Palisades Pkwy

 

Edited July 10, 2023 by StretchCT

[StretchCT]

Moderate chance they say.  What does it take to be more than moderate

[StretchCT]

Reports of the Hudson Line and Amtrak line being washed out near Croton on Hudson

[ClicheVortex2014]

5 hours ago, TheRex said:

Thanks for posting this kind of detail.  I live on the VT side of Champlain.  We've had a lot of rain over the last few weeks so everything here is saturated.  I should be ok because most of the water will run from away from my property.  I feel bad for those living in flood prone areas. 

So far we haven't had a drop of rain today.  We even spent some time in the pool this afternoon and the sun made an appearance.  Things are darkening here and rain should start in the next few hours.  I removed an inch of water from my pool earlier thinking it should help it from over filling.  I guess I should have removed several inches.

Watching this thing moving north is like watching a car crash in slow motion.  I hope everyone stays dry during this event.

Hope all turns out well for you. Looking like quite the dangerous situation.