April 14 - 16, 2023 | Severe Storms

[Iceresistance]

Well, even when the SPC does not issue a 15% area, the topic needs to be created because it could be a classic setup for April 14th for the Southern Plains, then Dixie Alley on the 15th.

 

[ElectricStorm]

I have concerns with quality of moisture return and capping. Not seeing a significant event right now for the plains imo. Could be some isolated severe weather but not im not expecting anything more than that for now. Several days out still so things can change of course. 

[Iceresistance]

32 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said:

I have concerns with quality of moisture return and capping. Not seeing a significant event right now for the plains imo. Could be some isolated severe weather but not im not expecting anything more than that for now. Several days out still so things can change of course. 

It's dependent on the current system

[ClicheVortex2014]

Thursday would probably be a decent severe event for my area if the system in the Gulf wasn't messing with moisture.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Could see some gusty winds out of these showers in the northeast Texas Panhandle on Thursday. Solid inverted-V sounding

[Iceresistance]

Well hello there

[ElectricStorm]

If it wasn't for that gulf low this would probably be one of the bigger plains setups we've had in a while. Should get a strong/severe line along the cold front. Could get some tornado action along the dryline but that's looking questionable to me right now. Overall setup looks meh but it should be enough to at least get a few severe storms. The big thing we need though is rain, so hopefully the line along the cold front can give us some but we'll see. 

CIPS analogs aren't super active although there's a couple of big days in there.

https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SP&fhr=F096&rundt=2023041100&map=thbSVR

[Iceresistance]

22 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said:

If it wasn't for that gulf low this would probably be one of the bigger plains setups we've had in a while. Should get a strong/severe line along the cold front. Could get some tornado action along the dryline but that's looking questionable to me right now. Overall setup looks meh but it should be enough to at least get a few severe storms. The big thing we need though is rain, so hopefully the line along the cold front can give us some but we'll see. 

CIPS analogs aren't super active although there's a couple of big days in there.

https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SP&fhr=F096&rundt=2023041100&map=thbSVR

There might be another opportunity like this later this month or May.

[Iceresistance]

NWS-Norman has increased the chances to 20-30% along and east of I-35

[ClicheVortex2014]

Could be an interesting event if the cap breaks. Right now it looks like the favored spot is south-central OK including OKC.

[Ingyball]

9 hours ago, ElectricStorm said:

If it wasn't for that gulf low this would probably be one of the bigger plains setups we've had in a while. Should get a strong/severe line along the cold front. Could get some tornado action along the dryline but that's looking questionable to me right now. Overall setup looks meh but it should be enough to at least get a few severe storms. The big thing we need though is rain, so hopefully the line along the cold front can give us some but we'll see. 

CIPS analogs aren't super active although there's a couple of big days in there.

https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SP&fhr=F096&rundt=2023041100&map=thbSVR

The 0z CIPS was quite a bit more impressive with the Central Plains sector including the Heston tornado outbreak along with the 91 Andover that was in the Southern Plains sector as well. It also included the 1994 Lancaster, Texas F4, which if I remember correctly was the last violent tor for DFW until December 26th, 2015. 

https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=GP&fhr=F096&rundt=2023041100&map=thbSVR

[Ingyball]

Looks like something messed up the 12z CIPS run so we'll have to wait till tonight to see what the analog list looks like. 

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, Ingyball said:

The 0z CIPS was quite a bit more impressive with the Central Plains sector including the Heston tornado outbreak along with the 91 Andover that was in the Southern Plains sector as well. It also included the 1994 Lancaster, Texas F4, which if I remember correctly was the last violent tor for DFW until December 26th, 2015. 

https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=GP&fhr=F096&rundt=2023041100&map=thbSVR

Yeah, the Southern Plains could have something big if the cap breaks.

[ElectricStorm]

12z CIPS analogs are pretty active 

https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SP&fhr=F060&rundt=2023041212&map=thbSVR

[ClicheVortex2014]

Wind-driven marginal for my area. I'll be working during the event again. This appears to be a better setup IMO than Sunday.

Edited April 12, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[btbucks]

Could really use the rain in those areas.

[ClicheVortex2014]

This is pretty cool. HRRR is explicitly picking up on microbursts from tomorrows storms here. Seems pretty aggressive though.

 

It's showing any cell that develops starts producing strong surface winds. Why? Thunderstorms with 50+ degree dew point depression

Edited April 13, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[ElectricStorm]

We'll see how things look in a couple days but right now I'm thinking Friday is going to be a cap bust. Not enough moisture and the cap looks like it might be a bit too strong for anything to really get going. Right now neither the HRRR or NAM show anything developing for the most part, although the HRRR fires a couple cells up in KS.

That being said though, anything that does form could be a big problem so we'll definitely have to watch it just in case. But overall I'm not very concerned right now. 

[ElectricStorm]

Day 2 outlook is out. Slight risk shifted north and no longer includes S OK/N TX but does now include S NE. 2% tornado area for C/NE OK and E KS. I think they will probably drop the slight risk in OK entirely in the next couple outlooks if trends continue.

[StretchCT]

Quasi tropical system spawning some issue over the SE

[ElectricStorm]

Pretty much all of OK downgraded to marginal for tomorrow as I expected. Just not enough moisture to overcome the cap. Probably won't even get any rain 

Edited April 13, 2023 by ElectricStorm

[Ingyball]

Looking like a hail event here. I actually like the upper flow better down south, but not enough forcing or moisture down there to overcome the cap it seems. Could get interesting if moisture return overperforms though. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Off to work. Should be an interesting evening. First time I've experienced an event like this. Dry/near-dry thunderstorms that could turn severe, as well a more typical fire weather day with dry lightning throw in the mix.

Edited April 13, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[Iceresistance]

Any rain? @ClicheVortex2014

[Iceresistance]

Even if this week is not much of anything, next week is, well, trouble.