Meteorologist Ingyball Posted April 14, 2023 Meteorologist Posted April 14, 2023 I might just be hyping the NAM up but I'd say don't sleep on Saturday, I think it has a lot more potential as the upper trough intensifies and takes on a negative orientation. Could be interesting from northern Arkansas to southern Iowa. The NAM has a pretty favorable upper jet alignment in southern Missouri as well. GFS does not, however, so definitely not an easy forecast.
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 14, 2023 Meteorologist Posted April 14, 2023 (edited) 6 hours ago, Iceresistance said: Any rain? @ClicheVortex2014 Most any of the mesonet sites got was 0.07" which is more than expected. Only 2 other mesonet sites recorded anything... 0.01" and 0.02". 3 severe gusts along the gust front this evening, including 62 mph at the office. Had some virga that was responsible for a 67 mph gust well behind the gust front, considered that a non-thunderstorm gust. Edited April 14, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014
ElectricStorm Posted April 14, 2023 Posted April 14, 2023 (edited) Not even in the general t-storm risk now lol gotta love a classic southern plains cap bust. Hopefully the severe drought-stricken areas in KS can get some decent rain from this. Edited April 14, 2023 by ElectricStorm 1
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 14, 2023 Meteorologist Posted April 14, 2023 (edited) 12 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said: Not even in the general t-storm risk now lol gotta love a classic southern plains cap bust. Hopefully the severe drought-stricken areas in KS can get some decent rain from this. Yeah that's rough. Cap holding on too strong probably helped increase confidence enough for a day 2 enhanced. 30% hail and wind with a hatched hail for initial development. Seems they're buying the quick transition to linear. Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 AM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI...ARKANSAS AND FAR NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large hail and damaging gusts are possible from the lower to mid Mississippi Valley westward into parts of the Ozarks, Ark-La-Tex and Sabine River Valley. ...Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex/Sabine River Valley... An upper-level trough is forecast to move into the southern Plains on Saturday, as an associated 60 to 75 mid-level jet moves through the base of the system. At the surface, a low is forecast to move into the mid Mississippi Valley, as a cold front advances eastward across western Kansas and western Oklahoma during the morning. Ahead of the front, low-level moisture will return northward into the Ozarks with 60+ surface dewpoints in place by midday across most of the region. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop quickly ahead of the cold front during the early to mid afternoon along and near the instability axis. These storms may organize into a broken line, and move eastward toward the Mississippi River during the late afternoon and evening. NAM forecast soundings by 21Z on Saturday from Springfield southward to near Little Rock have MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range. The thermodynamic environment is impressive with 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 8.5 to 9.0 C/km range. This should be very favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the stronger and more dominant supercells. The threat for very large hail is forecast to be greatest from southwest Missouri southward across much of western and central Arkansas, into northeast Texas and northwest Louisiana. Initially, the storms will likely be discrete resulting in the greater hail threat. However, a line of storms, along with a wind-damage threat, is expected to develop during the late afternoon. The line will move eastward toward the Mississippi River during the early evening, and will affect areas to the east during the overnight period. A tornado threat will be possible with supercells and bowing line segments. The models are now bringing the upper-level trough into the region slightly slower than previously forecast. This combined with faster moisture return will result in an instability axis further to the west. For this reason, have adjusted the Slight Risk westward. Also, an Enhanced Risk has been added along the zone where the severe threat is expected to be maximized from far southern Missouri southward into central Arkansas and far northern Louisiana. Edited April 14, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted April 14, 2023 Meteorologist Posted April 14, 2023 I'm hoping we get some good rain here today, we'll see. Outside of that I'm also hoping to get some good pics from my west with decent storm structure as well as lightning.
snowlover2 Posted April 14, 2023 Posted April 14, 2023 Updated day 2 sees the slight risk expanded to SE IA and enhanced expanded more into MO. They mention up to baseball size hail possible. Quote Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI SOUTHWARD TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms -- capable of producing large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts, as well as a couple of tornadoes -- are possible from Missouri and the Mid-Mississippi Valley, southward to the Lower Mississippi and Sabine Valleys. ...Synopsis... As a weakening upper low over the Mid-Atlantic region shifts northeastward, a larger trough exiting the Rockies is forecast to move steadily eastward across the Plains, gradually acquiring negative tilt as it advances. At the surface, a cold front associated with the western U.S. upper trough should lie initially from the western Upper Great Lakes region southwestward into the southern Plains. The boundary is forecast to advance eastward with time, with cyclogenesis forecast to occur along the baroclinic zone across the Mid-Mississippi Valley area during the second half of the period. As the low moves northward toward Lake Michigan overnight, the trailing portion of the cold front is progged to surge southeastward across Missouri/Arkansas/Louisiana through the evening. By Saturday morning, the front should extend from the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to the central Gulf Coast states. ...Missouri and the Mid-Mississippi Valley south to the Sabine and lower Mississippi Valleys... A complex convective evolution is apparent for Friday across a region centered near/just west of the middle and lower Mississippi Valleys. This will be in part due to a series of perturbations in the southern-stream flow field that are progged to be moving out of Texas, across the western Gulf of Mexico and Lower Mississippi Valley into the central Gulf Coast states through the first half of the period. Lingering convection associated with these perturbations may be ongoing at the start of the period across portions of eastern Texas and Louisiana into southern Arkansas, though CAM guidance differs on the exact location -- and degree -- of convective coverage early. Despite these differences, CAMs generally depict a midday increase in storms across the Lower Mississippi Valley to the central Gulf Coastal region, which seems reasonable as daytime heating helps boost surface-based CAPE, owing in part to steep mid-level lapse rates. Deep-layer shear is progged to decrease with southward extent, hence the gradient in probability lines across Louisiana. However, potential for large hail and damaging winds -- and possibly a tornado -- should evolve across this area. Uncertainty precludes substantial changes to the existing outlook across the area. Adjustments in later outlooks may be needed, once Day 1 convective development across Texas -- associated with the aforementioned southern-stream energy -- becomes more clear. Farther north, as the upper system advances, the combination of very steep lapse rates aloft, and diurnal heating of a seasonably moist boundary layer (low 60s dewpoints into northern Missouri, to near 70 into the southern Arkansas/Louisiana area) will occur. This will result in a strongly unstable environment (2000 to 3000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE). Storm development is expected to occur by mid afternoon, near and just ahead of the advancing cold front, from western and central Missouri southward into Arkansas. Aided by roughly 30 kt south-southwesterlies at low levels veering weakly and increasing to 35 to 45 kt from the southwest at mid levels, shear will favor supercells -- which will quickly become capable of producing very large hail in excess of tennis ball to baseball size. While low-level shear is not progged to be excessive, a couple of these supercells may become capable of producing tornadoes. With time, convective development both northward and southward along the front is expected. Upscale growth into an at least loosely-organized band or line is anticipated, extending from southeastern Iowa/western Illinois south-southwestward along the advancing front into the Sabine River Valley area. As a result of this anticipated evolution, have expanded higher all-hazard probabilities northward in this outlook, into much of Missouri. Along with continued risk for hail, damaging wind potential should increase during the evening -- particularly across the Missouri/Arkansas area. Storms should diminish in intensity later in the evening, as they cross the Mid-Mississippi Valley, but farther south, may remain severe across Louisiana and into Mississippi through the evening and possibly into the overnight hours. ..Goss.. 04/14/2023
Iceresistance Posted April 15, 2023 Author Posted April 15, 2023 Big line of storms coming towards you @Ingyball (Right forum this time 😛 )
Chinook Posted April 15, 2023 Posted April 15, 2023 There's just a bit of a squall line tonight. Today (4/14) is the anniversary of 4/14/12, the last high risk in Kansas.
snowlover2 Posted April 15, 2023 Posted April 15, 2023 Enhanced expanded into W IL on new day 1. Quote Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms -- capable of producing large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts, as well as a couple of tornadoes -- are possible from Missouri and the Mid-Mississippi Valley, southward to the Lower Mississippi Valley and upper Texas Coast. ...Mid MS Valley/AR... Pronounced mid-level short-wave trough is currently located over CO/NM. This feature will eject into the central/southern Plains as a strengthening 500mb speed max translates across central OK by early evening then into AR, increasing to near 85kt by the end of the period. In response to this feature, weak surface low is forecast to track from northern OK - northern MO - into northern IL Saturday evening. While the surface reflection is not expected to be particularly intense, 60F surface dew point should advance to near I70 across MO by 18z, perhaps surging into west-central IL by early evening ahead of the surface low. Early this morning, several clusters of thunderstorms have evolved over the central Plains region into western IA. Remnants of this activity should propagate into the mid MS Valley by the start of the day1 period and continue weakening as it spreads toward IL by mid day. Of more concern will be renewed convection that will evolve along/ahead of the surface low/cold front by early afternoon across eastern KS/western MO. Forecast soundings exhibit very steep surface-9km lapse rates which will aid buoyancy within a strongly sheared environment. MLCAPE values could approach 3000 J/kg across much of this region and supercells are expected to evolve fairly early ahead of the short wave. Deep-layer flow is somewhat veered so SRH values are not expected to be that strong. However, very large hail should be noted with the strongest supercells. As the front advances east, scattered convection may grow upscale into a QLCS with embedded supercells as it advances toward the MS River. Intense 12hr mid-level height falls across the mid MS Valley during the overnight hours may encourage strong convection to surge a bit farther east across IL toward IN during the overnight hours. In addition to very large hail, damaging winds and the threat for at least a couple of tornado can be expected. ...Gulf Coast Region... Latest satellite imagery depicts a short-wave trough over northeast Mexico ejecting toward south TX, in line with latest model guidance. This feature is expected to contribute to an expanding cluster of convection that should propagate from the middle/upper TX Coast, east along/just offshore of the central Gulf Coast. Northern portions of this MCS should advance across the FL Panhandle during the mid/late afternoon. Hail/wind are the primary risks with this complex. Secondary convective development is possible later in the day along the trailing cold front as it surges into southeast TX. It's not clear how far southwest convection will develop along the boundary due to weak low-level convergence, but warm surface temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates may encourage isolated storms as far west as SAT by 16/00z. Hail will be the greatest risk with this secondary development. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/15/2023
StormfanaticInd Posted April 15, 2023 Posted April 15, 2023 Two severe warned storms in Missouri. Ping-pong ball hail reported
Iceresistance Posted April 15, 2023 Author Posted April 15, 2023 31 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Two severe warned storms in Missouri. Ping-pong ball hail reported They are undercut from producing a tornado though... 1
Chinook Posted April 15, 2023 Posted April 15, 2023 (edited) a collection of cells now trying to look like supercells, near Springfield MO (as mentioned). Already there have been hail reports of 2-4" by Lamar. Edited April 15, 2023 by Chinook
Iceresistance Posted April 15, 2023 Author Posted April 15, 2023 32 minutes ago, Chinook said: a collection of cells now trying to look like supercells, near Springfield MO (as mentioned). Already there have been hail reports of 2-4" by Lamar. Saw a confirmed report of Baseballs in Bolivar and Softballs near Arcola (near Stockton Lake) 1
Iceresistance Posted April 15, 2023 Author Posted April 15, 2023 Crap, there is 2 inch hail coming into Springfield, MO right now... My great-grandparents are in Springfield, MO
snowlover2 Posted April 15, 2023 Posted April 15, 2023 One storm in C MO has baseball hail. Quote BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Springfield MO 337 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023 The National Weather Service in Springfield has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Miller County in central Missouri... Northern Pulaski County in central Missouri... East central Camden County in central Missouri... * Until 430 PM CDT. * At 336 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Lake Ozark to near Camdenton, moving east at 30 mph. THESE ARE DESTRUCTIVE STORMS FOR Tuscumba, Saint Elizabeth, Iberia, Crocker, and Dixon Missouri areas. . HAZARD...Baseball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured. Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs, siding, and vehicles. * Locations impacted include... Lake of The Ozarks, Lake of The Ozarks State Park, Osage Beach, Lake Ozark, Dixon, Crocker, Iberia, Saint Elizabeth, St. Elizabeth, Tuscumbia, Bagnell, Brumley, Ulman, Freedom, Kaiser, Swedeborg, Marys Home, Montreal and Wet Glaize. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. These are dangerous storms. Prepare immediately for large destructive hail capable of producing significant damage. People outside should move to shelter inside a strong building, and stay away from windows. && LAT...LON 3817 9219 3816 9218 3802 9218 3801 9202 3789 9202 3791 9261 3825 9261 3834 9239 3834 9229 3832 9225 3834 9220 TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 248DEG 28KT 3817 9260 3795 9268 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH
snowlover2 Posted April 15, 2023 Posted April 15, 2023 4" hail report a little earlier. Quote PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 228 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2023 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0220 PM HAIL 5 SW ARCOLA 37.50N 93.94W 04/15/2023 E4.00 INCH DADE MO PUBLIC TWITTER WITH PHOTOS. SOME 3 IN SOME 4 IN.
snowlover2 Posted April 15, 2023 Posted April 15, 2023 Quote URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 139 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 405 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest Illinois Southeast Missouri * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 405 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Supercells evolving into a cluster with embedded line segments is expected to spread east across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Hail transitioning to damaging wind should be the main threat, but a couple embedded tornadoes are possible as well. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles northwest of Alton IL to 35 miles east southeast of Poplar Bluff MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 137...WW 138... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Grams
snowlover2 Posted April 15, 2023 Posted April 15, 2023 Just now, snowlover2 said: Tornado warning north of Rolla MO. And tennis ball hail! Quote Quote BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Springfield MO 432 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023 The National Weather Service in Springfield has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Eastern Maries County in central Missouri... Northeastern Phelps County in east central Missouri... * Until 515 PM CDT. * At 431 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Vienna, or 13 miles northwest of Rolla, moving northeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and tennis ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Vichy. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3829 9165 3815 9164 3815 9153 3803 9153 3804 9191 3815 9197 TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 239DEG 35KT 3813 9186 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN 1
snowlover2 Posted April 15, 2023 Posted April 15, 2023 Wow a 97mph wind gust at Vichy MO! Quote PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 446 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2023 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0445 PM TSTM WND GST 1 NNW VICHY 38.13N 91.77W 04/15/2023 E97 MPH MARIES MO ASOS
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