April 14 - 16, 2023 | Severe Storms

[snowlover2]

Tornado warning SW of St. Louis.

[Iceresistance]

Just now, snowlover2 said:

Tornado warning SW of St. Louis.

Another one possibly into St. Louis, that thing is MEAN!

[Iceresistance]

POWERFLASH IN WESTERN ST. LOUIS PER MODOT CAMERA!

MoDOT Traveler Information Map

[Iceresistance]

Nasty Supercell coming into St. Louis, hook is wrapping up.

[Iceresistance]

6 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Nasty Supercell coming into St. Louis, hook is wrapping up.

Now tornado warned

[snowlover2]

10 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Nasty Supercell coming into St. Louis, hook is wrapping up.

Confirmed now .

Quote

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
631 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

ILC163-MOC189-510-160000-
/O.CON.KLSX.TO.W.0014.000000T0000Z-230416T0000Z/
St. Clair IL-St. Louis City MO-St. Louis MO-
631 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR WEST
CENTRAL ST. CLAIR AND CENTRAL ST. LOUIS COUNTIES AND SOUTHWESTERN ST.
LOUIS CITY...

At 630 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Sunset Hills,
moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. One circulation is evident near
         Kirkwood, Missouri and another is evident near Sunset
         Hills, Missouri.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

This tornado will be near...
  St. Louis, Webster Groves, Crestwood, Sunset Hills, Shrewsbury,
  Glendale, Lakeshire, Oakland, Affton, and Mehlville around 635 PM
  CDT.
  East Carondelet around 640 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this tornadic thunderstorm include
Cahokia, Dupo and Columbia.

This includes Interstate 44 in Missouri between exits 276 and 277.

 

[Iceresistance]

Just now, snowlover2 said:

Confirmed now .

 

Are you watching the MODOT Cameras?

[Iceresistance]

Has anyone noticed the Supercell near Ringgold, LA?

[snowlover2]

12 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Has anyone noticed the Supercell near Ringgold, LA?

Confirmed tornado on that one.

[Chinook]

Heavy storms in St. Louis produced wind gusts over 60mph, various small hail and large hail. One confirmed tornado warning was at New Athens IL recently, and several non-confirmed tornado warnings are happening right now. One confirmed tornado warning at Kirkwood MO (was the New Athens IL warning a continuation of this confirmed tornado warning?)

 

Kirkwood or east Valley Park MO (not sure if damage is indicated here)

 

Valley Park, MO

 

Hecker IL

 

Edited April 16, 2023 by Chinook

[FortySixAnd32]

My God this exploded!!!! 

[snowlover2]

Confirmed tornado north of Nashville IL.

Quote

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
741 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

ILC027-189-160100-
/O.COR.KLSX.TO.W.0018.000000T0000Z-230416T0100Z/
Clinton IL-Washington IL-
741 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR CLINTON
AND EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES...

At 741 PM CDT, tornado producing storms were located along a line
extending from near Jamestown to near Nashville, moving east at 50
mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Emergency management confirmed tornado north of Nashville,
         IL.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

These tornadic storms will remain over mainly rural areas of Clinton
and eastern Washington Counties, including the following locations:
Bartelso...Radom...Huey...Huegely...Hoffman...Posen...New Minden...
Hoyleton...Covington and Richview.

This also includes Carlyle Lake Recreational Area.

This includes Interstate 64 in Illinois between exits 50 and 61.

 

[Chinook]

Storms in eastern Missouri really did a lot considering they were outrunning the higher shear.

[Chinook]

I've always found it fascinating that you can track the gust with the radar clutter (fine line, where the radar picks up bugs and birds, I believe). Here is the gust approaching Memphis.

 

[Central Illinois]

quite the lightning show here last night.

[Chinook]

Here is a real picture from the end of a storm chase... handing over $10000 to fix hail damage.

 

[ClicheVortex2014]

Nickel and diming into the severe season here. Right on the edge of a marginal today. Another day of virga/strong gusts with thundershowers. At least we're starting to see moisture on the upward trend, even if it's mid-level, compared to the past several months.

Pretty unimportant in this case, it's nice to live in a place that actually has good wind shear even on the most unimpressive upper-level patterns. We did have a sub-severe supercell on Easter where we had only 25-30 kts effective shear. Ohio could never.

Edited April 17, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

Pretty cool thing today. Amarillo needed backup from Tulsa today, and it turned out that one of their forecasters on shift is from this area, so she got to forecast for her home. I'm sure seeing this forecast gave her some fond memories of winds and very low RH.

National Weather Service Amarillo TX
Issued by National Weather Service Tulsa OK
259 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2023

A warm, breezy and dry afternoon is in progress across the
panhandles, leading to Elevated fire weather conditions in most
locations. A slight increase in low level moisture has occurred
today, largely across the southeastern half of the Texas
Panhandle, which should continue into the overnight as a low level
jet increases. This may fuel a few high based thunderstorms late
afternoon into the evening, although it will not be enough to lead
to much in the way of rainfall. Lightning from any thunderstorms
could result in fire starts, which would be less than favorable
considering the low relative humidities and breezy conditions. The
strongest storms could be briefly severe with damaging winds being
the primary concern given the forecast soundings and dry surface
conditions.

Fire weather will be another concern tomorrow, focused across the
western two-thirds of the forecast area on the backside of the
dryline. The existing Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a
Red Flag Warning from noon through 9 pm. Ahead of the dryline,
isolated thunderstorms will again be possible during the
afternoon, extending into the evening, some of which may again be
strong to severe.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2023

Fire weather concerns will extend into Wednesday, and a Fire
Weather Watch will be issued from noon to 9 pm for the western
two-thirds of the panhandles. The watch may need to be expanded
eastward on later shifts given the forecast dryline position on
Wednesday morning in the eastern panhandles and its expected
eastward progress during the afternoon. Minimum humidities should
fall into the single digits areawide with strong southwesterly
winds.

Much colder conditions will arrive for the end of the week, as a
strong cold front will push southward Wednesday night into
Thursday in association with a large upper level trough moving
into the Plains. This could set the stage for a rain/snow mix
across western portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle and the
northwestern portions of the Texas Panhandle early Friday as a
disturbance and associated cold front crosses through the region.
Despite favorable forecast soundings and NBM precipitation type
probabilities during that time, have gone conservatively with the
rain/snow mention rather than just snow by itself considering the
time range and the time of year. The colder weather will linger
into the early part of the weekend, with southerly winds and an
associated warmup slated for Sunday into early next week as
surface high pressure slides to the east.

On a personal note, it has been a pleasure for this 1998 Perryton
High School graduate to finally get to check "forecasting for
home" off her career bucket list.

 

Edited April 17, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

These dry thunderstorms are something else. You can only shake your head and laugh.

Radar:

45 mph gust observed at KAMA

Edited April 18, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014

[Sentinel]

1 hour ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

These dry thunderstorms are something else. You can only shake your head and laugh.

Radar:

45 mph gust observed at KAMA

Explain how dry thunderstorms work? 

[ClicheVortex2014]

23 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said:

Explain how dry thunderstorms work? 

It's just when you have a thunderstorm but the air below it is so dry that it entirely evaporates the rain associated with the storm. These storms can produce strong winds (dry microburst), but the other hazard is fire starts. Definitely not something anyone east of the Plains experiences. I'm getting a quick crash course with it myself. Last Thursday we had 3 >58 mph wind reports come from dry thunderstorms. I don't think any of them came from reflectivity greater than 35 dbz.

Tonights 00z sounding here gives you an idea of what you need for a dry thunderstorm. Sampled 500 sbcape with dry enough low-levels. Very little to no rain would get to the surface in this environment, but an updraft would produce lightning. Given the intensity of the rain to the southeast, I wouldn't be surprised if they received a few hundredths of an inch with their lightning.

Edited April 18, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014