March 12-15, 2023 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

[Penn State]

According to the Washington Post, the winter of 1959-1960 was rather mild and moderate in the Northeast; that was until March. The month of March was accompanied by several winter storms that impacted the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. One region in particular that witnessed harsh impacts was North Carolina, as depicted in the images of the aforementioned article. The most impactful winter storm arrived on March 2nd, 1960. Analysis 🧐 from NOAA indicates that this March Nor’Easter formed in the lower Great Plains, traversed parts of the Southeast, and eventually gained latitude up the East Coast of the U.S. This analysis also indicates that the storm occluded, and phased several pieces of energy. The result.. an historic NESIS storm ranked #3 all-time behind only the Superstorm of ‘93 (Happy 30th Anniversary!) and the Blizzard of ‘96. Oh, and it also happens to be a top five analog 🥳 for this timeframe. The story of this speculative threat, of course, is yet to be written! 

With that being said, the justification for this winter storm potential is shown in the 12z ensembles. The GEFS, EPS, and CMCE all have a disturbance that forms in the lower Great Plains, traverses parts of the Southeast, and gains latitude up the East Coast (Wait.. that sounds familiar 🤔). The WPC surface forecast for day seven also shows the potential for two lows, accompanied by high pressure to the north. Also, working in this potential’s favor are the forecasted teleconnections for this timeframe. The AO and NAO are neutral-negative, while the PNA is neutral-positive.. and even the MJO wants to join the party! Despite many favorable indications, there is no guarantee that a storm will eventually form, nor that it will have significant impacts. The pattern for the winter of 2022-‘23, especially for the Mid-Atlantic, has largely remained unfavorable; however, I maintain some faith that the tables can be turned! Let’s hope for the best, and as always, Happy Tracking! 🤓

12z Ensembles | Comparison @ Hour 192

WPC Surface Forecast | Day 7

Spoiler

12z Ensembles | Hours 144-240

GEFS

EPS

CMCE

12z Operational Guidance | Hours 144-240

GFS

ECMWF

GDPS

12z 500 MB | Comparison @ Hour 192

Teleconnections 

MJO

AO

NAO

PNA

NOAA 6-10 Day Analogs | March 2-5, 1960

 

 

 

[Penn State]

18z GFS.. Strong and OTS, but I would rather the placement be there, than too far inland at this point. 

[Penn State]

Though the GFS remains well OTS, the ECMWF had quite an overnight run. 

[PA road DAWG]

2 hours ago, Penn State said:

Though the GFS remains well OTS, the ECMWF had quite an overnight run. 

I’ll make you a $20 bet this storm fizzles away too 

[StretchCT]

I grew up playing football, stickball, wiffle ball and frisbee in the street.  Car comes, game off.  Car passes, game on. That repeats every few minutes.

That's what I feel about this storm.

Edited March 7, 2023 by StretchCT

[TLChip]

I just can’t handle anymore digital snow this year…especially 7 days out. It’s just depressing 🫠 maybe I need a break

Edited March 7, 2023 by TLChip

[StretchCT]

WPC day 7 - can't tell if it's moving east or NE at this point, but appears outside the benchmark connected with a trough to a cutter. 

WPC does verify a little better than the 0z euro ensemble. 

Euro ensemble mean not looking that far off WPC.

And this is EPS snow

Edited March 7, 2023 by StretchCT

[Penn State]

2 hours ago, PA road DAWG said:

I’ll make you a $20 bet this storm fizzles away too 

To be honest.. I'm on your side of the bet, as pretty much all has this winter. With that being said, I enjoy the discussion at least. 

[PA road DAWG]

1 minute ago, Penn State said:

To be honest.. I'm on your side of the bet, as pretty much all has this winter. With that being said, I enjoy the discussion at least. 

Don’t get me wrong, the discussion is always fun…..until it disappears and fizzles away

[Penn State]

Just now, PA road DAWG said:

Don’t get me wrong, the discussion is always fun…..until it disappears and fizzles away

Can't argue that lol.. My hope, at least with this potential, is that the pattern is somewhat more supportive. What happens with the first system on the 11th will have an impact, no doubt. In a perfect world, I think everything would need to back-up to the west a bit (ridge and trough), would like the high in a better position. Some key players are there at least! 

[PA road DAWG]

4 minutes ago, Penn State said:

Can't argue that lol.. My hope, at least with this potential, is that the pattern is somewhat more supportive. What happens with the first system on the 11th will have an impact, no doubt. In a perfect world, I think everything would need to back-up to the west a bit (ridge and trough), would like the high in a better position. Some key players are there at least! 

plus there’s just something magical about the 2nd to 3rd week of March.   Some of my biggest snowstorms in history come during this time.  

[Brodozer1]

neg ghost rider the pattern is rain 

[Brodozer1]

2 hours ago, TLChip said:

I just can’t handle anymore digital snow this year…especially 7 days out. It’s just depressing 🫠 maybe I need a break

me too just bring on spring 

 

[MaineJay]

5 hours ago, PA road DAWG said:

I’ll make you a $20 bet this storm fizzles away too 

 

[MaineJay]

Ukie and ECMWF look very similar at hour 144.

[telejunkie]

Euro was all....

[Penn State]

After seeing the 12z.. I'm not sure if I should be more concerned with it scooting out and not making the turn, or lack of precip.. even though it looks somewhat strong, or.. which this is probably the end result, but it ending up in Sioux Falls. 

[MaineJay]

GEFS look largely disorganized.

Schrödinger might say all possibilities exist, but they all collapse into a single reality as we reach the event.

[telejunkie]

9 minutes ago, Penn State said:

After seeing the 12z.. I'm not sure if I should be more concerned with it scooting out and not making the turn, or lack of precip.. even though it looks somewhat strong, or.. which this is probably the end result, but it ending up in Sioux Falls. 

With the high latitude blocking, don't we're looking at a cutter...weak, disorganized, non-phased...that's more likely. But Canadian ensembles sure has a nice looking, full-latitude trough and with that blocking, more likely to allow it to go negative. GEFS does look pretty good too....

[Penn State]

EPS doesn't look bad.. lots of members somewhat consolidated. I like the location. I think weaker signals on the American and Canadian counterparts. 

[TLChip]

3 hours ago, Penn State said:

With that being said, I enjoy the discussion at least. 

I do too but after talking about snow shots for 3 months and coming out with 2”… you get the idea. At least everyone’s snow pictures are nice ☃️.  Jealously and envy that’s all. 

My uneducated thought, pattern continues. Disorganized cutter late coastal.  Between PA/NY border is where it’s cold enough to snow, south of that it will snow/mix to rain. I’ll put $10 to that a week out. 

[Pghsnow]

[Penn State]

The JMA looks much farther north, and much more moisture rich. Using the EPS (Green), GEFS (Blue), and CMCE (Red).. those are the mean MSLP tracks (as best as I can pinpoint the tracks). The European makes a turn, while the American and Canadian scoot OTS. I suppose the stronger or more "amped", the further to the NW.. while the weaker, the more flat this would be. I will say.. at least on the EPS, the majority of members looked a little west of the mean. 

[JDClapper]

For interior PA, there was about a half dozen bangers on EPS. Prob 33% give or take light/mod events and remaining 50% give or take snoozers. Not bad!

[MaineJay]

Ukie track.