ElectricStorm Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 (edited) Looks like next week could bring another round of severe weather, this time in the South/Southeast, the more typical area for this time of year. I think the biggest day of focus for this one is Fri 3/3, with the GFS showing a fast-moving trough moving through the South. Euro also has the trough in a similar position No areas highlighted by SPC yet, but they do mention an area could be added in later outlooks. Edited March 2, 2023 by ElectricStorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 Well, that escalated VERY QUICKLY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 They are calling for an outbreak now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 26, 2023 Share Posted February 26, 2023 ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260958 SPC AC 260958 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ON D5/THU... ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4... West-southwest mid-level flow will be in place on Wednesday as moisture advection occurs across much of the Southeast. Thunderstorms will be possible across the moist sector from east Texas eastward across the Gulf Coast states and northward into the mid Mississippi Valley. At this time, any severe threat is expected to remain isolated on Wednesday, due to weak instability and limited large-scale ascent. ...Thursday/Day 5 and Friday/Day 6... An upper-level trough will move quickly eastward on Thursday from the Desert Southwest into the southern Plains. By late afternoon on Thursday, model forecasts develop a corridor of moderate instability in east Texas and have strong deep-layer shear present over much of the southern Plains. This environment should support severe storms capable of large hail, wind damage and perhaps some tornadoes. A widespread outbreak of severe weather will be possible beginning Thursday afternoon and continuing into the overnight period. The potential for severe storms should shift eastward across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley and into the central Gulf Coast states Thursday night where the threat for wind damage, hail and tornadoes should continue. On Friday, the upper-level system is forecast to move northeastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. The greatest potential for severe storms would be from eastern parts of the southeastern states northeastward into the Carolinas. Any line of storms that can persist or develop during the day on Friday, could have wind-damage or tornado potential. However, the overall threat on Friday should be less than Thursday, as the upper-level trough moves further northeast away from the stronger instability. ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8... On Saturday and Sunday, high pressure is forecast to settle in across much of the continental United States. This dry and cool airmass should make thunderstorm development unfavorable in most areas. ..Broyles.. 02/26/2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 It has trended west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 This may be the 12z NAM Sounding over SW Oklahoma that is possibly contaminated, but OH JEEZ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted February 28, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted February 28, 2023 Last event had all the shear, this one has lower shear but better instability. More balance here. Another Pacific front with this event but storm motion wrt the front is decent. Might be initial supercells but warm sector supercells are the ones to watch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted February 28, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted February 28, 2023 The SREF has been absurdly far west with this system so far. It would be very concerning for Oklahoma and Texas if that played out. I think the potential is there for more discrete storms due to a more neutrally tilted trough providing less forcing than a negatively tilted trough would. Though that might not matter if the NAM is correct and we see an uncapped environment by 21z. Obviously it's fantasy land NAM, but it's a concerning signal. Could be a nasty tornado event if that played out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted February 28, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted February 28, 2023 Not too many heavy hitters on the CIPs analogs right now, but the #1 analog right now is Super Tuesday, which is obviously something you don't want to see show up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Enhanced risk for DFW in Texas, I'm in the Marginal, but the slight risk is not too far away from me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 (edited) 7 hours ago, Ingyball said: The SREF has been absurdly far west with this system so far. It would be very concerning for Oklahoma and Texas if that played out. I think the potential is there for more discrete storms due to a more neutrally tilted trough providing less forcing than a negatively tilted trough would. Though that might not matter if the NAM is correct and we see an uncapped environment by 21z. Obviously it's fantasy land NAM, but it's a concerning signal. Could be a nasty tornado event if that played out. Unfortunately, there is some consistency and persistence with the models, still showing Central Oklahoma with really high parameters. And, it could be Sunday Night all over again! EDIT: Nevermind on the 9z SREF, it has trended east again. Edited February 28, 2023 by Iceresistance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 28, 2023 Author Share Posted February 28, 2023 Massive W 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted February 28, 2023 Author Share Posted February 28, 2023 I'm very interested to see what the CAMs show over the next couple days. I haven't really been paying much attention to this considering what just happened but I think we could see a decent sized 15 hatched moderate risk down there at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 52 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said: I'm very interested to see what the CAMs show over the next couple days. I haven't really been paying much attention to this considering what just happened but I think we could see a decent sized 15 hatched moderate risk down there at some point. What site features it? I know it does archives of previous outbreaks with similar setups and probabilities, but I forgot the site name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 SPC already hinting at an upgrade to moderate from the day 3 disco. Quote Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTH/EAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...CENTRAL/NORTHERN LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND FAR SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... A regional severe-thunderstorm outbreak appears possible across parts of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss regions, with tornadoes, damaging wind, and hail all possible. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to become negatively tilted as it traverses the southern Plains on Thursday. A surface low is expected to steadily deepen somewhere near the Red River during the day, with more rapid deepening expected Thursday night as the cyclone moves northeastward toward the Ozarks. Seasonably rich low-level moisture will be in place across the warm sector of the developing cyclone through the period. ...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex/ArkLaMiss region and parts of the Southeast... A regional severe thunderstorm outbreak still appears possible from the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex/ArkLaMiss regions Thursday into Thursday night. All severe hazards will be possible, including the potential for widespread damaging winds and strong tornadoes, though uncertainty remains regarding the timing and evolution of severe thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon/evening. Relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate buoyancy across the moist warm sector, while deep-layer shear will steadily increase through the day as a 80-100 kt midlevel jet approaches from the west. The coverage and timing of convection remains somewhat uncertain, with stronger large-scale ascent expected to remain west of the warm sector for much of the day. Discrete supercell development will be possible near the ArkLaTex vicinity by late afternoon into the evening, as a low-level jet becomes increasingly intense near/after 00Z. Any sustained supercells would pose a strong tornado risk as low-level shear increases with time, along with the potential for hail. More widespread development is expected along the surging cold front across parts of north/central TX by evening. The frontal convection will spread quickly eastward, posing a threat of potentially widespread damaging wind and a continued tornado threat. Some portion of this area may eventually require a categorical upgrade, if confidence increases regarding a corridor of strong-tornado and/or significant-wind potential. The eastward-surging frontal convection may tend to weaken with time by early Friday morning across eastern MS/western AL, as the primary mid/upper-level system begins to move northeastward away from the region, though very strong deep-layer flow/shear will continue to support a threat of damaging wind and line-embedded tornadoes through the end of the period. ..Dean.. 02/28/2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 1, 2023 Author Share Posted March 1, 2023 4 hours ago, Iceresistance said: What site features it? I know it does archives of previous outbreaks with similar setups and probabilities, but I forgot the site name. Features what? Are you talking about CIPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 1, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 1, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, snowlover2 said: SPC already hinting at an upgrade to moderate from the day 3 disco. I wanna say it's too early in the season to be seeing this wording in the day 3 outlook but it's really not. We're 5 hours from March and this fits in well with climo... especially compared to Sunday's event Edited March 1, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 22 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said: Features what? Are you talking about CIPS? Yes, the CIPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 75% STP in Northern Mississippi for Wednesday (Tomorrow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 1, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 1, 2023 (edited) Strong impressions from LZK. High tornado potential, 80+ mph winds, up to 2.75" hail https://www.weather.gov/lzk/ SHV isn't as impressed/confident(?) Could also mean southern LZK is the higher threat. https://www.weather.gov/shv/ Edited March 1, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted March 1, 2023 Author Share Posted March 1, 2023 30 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: Yes, the CIPS. Here https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/analog.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 7 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said: Here https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/analog.php Just bookmarked it so I won't forget it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted March 1, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted March 1, 2023 (edited) Nasty sounding in S TX. Very steep lapse rates above the 0-1km layer. Good way to get some really strong updrafts. Would be even more concerning for tornadoes if the 0-1km layer can be more unstable On the other hand now that I look more... the mid-level dry air might be an issue. Hard to know if that'll be an inhibiting factor though in cases like this that seem marginal. Edited March 1, 2023 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJKuo Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 SPC map for Wed 3/1 Meanwhile 00z NAM be like: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 (edited) Tomorrow has me intrigued. It's sneaky. These little sneaky events seem to either bust or over-produce...no in between. What are you guys thinking about tomorrow over West Ky? Regional basketball tournaments are going on & the event is close to the time those events begin. Plus a lot of Wed evening church activities. Edited March 1, 2023 by Grace 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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