January 30-February 2, 2023 | Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Weather

[MesoscaleBanding]

Multiple waves...can separate later if necessary.

Here's the latest GFS & Canadian:

Edited January 31, 2023 by MesoscaleBanding

[Grace]

Trends on 0z & even more so on 6z EPS ensembles:

1. 3 waves with a big increase in precip shield & amounts.

2. There's hardly any separation in the waves...especially the 2nd & 3rd wave. Monday through Friday of next week was like a continuous Winter weather event for some locations. 

3. The best chances for snow look like North of the Ohio River, while south of that had very concerning icing ending in snow on last wave. 

**The biggest take away was it went from 2 lighter events & one major to 3 significant winter QPF events on several ensembles. 

 

[cperry29]

Couple screenshots from overnight runs. Icing more prominent on the CMC. 

[BuckeyeGal]

I keep getting a bunch of "When's our next snow day?" questions at school. I just answer, "Yes." LOL. I really think next week has potential for those of us that missed the mid-week storm. And I also think the snow-starved NE corridor may get theirs, too, with one (or all) of these waves. Shall see. Thanks for this thread, @MesoscaleBanding!

[Grace]

12z RGEM is almost identical to 0z GEM at that point so probably going to be a similar outcome with first wave. 

 

12z RGEM is a little colder at that point though:

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

👀 @OKwx_2001

My other topic is being closed

[beaver56]

40 minutes ago, Grace said:

12z RGEM is almost identical to 0z GEM at that point so probably going to be a similar outcome with first wave. 

 

12z RGEM is a little colder at that point though:

Love the temp gradient for my area. Why would I expect any less than mixing risk. 😂 

[GRR]

13 minutes ago, beaver56 said:

Love the temp gradient for my area. Why would I expect any less than mixing risk. 😂 

Where do you live?

[beaver56]

East central Indiana

[JayPSU]

Not to be a Debby Downer, but I don't see much to get excited about for the foreseeable future.  😥  At least, not in my neck of the woods.  

[cperry29]

12z UK. This falls Monday night into Tuesday morning.

[BuckeyeGal]

19 minutes ago, JayPSU said:

Not to be a Debby Downer, but I don't see much to get excited about for the foreseeable future.  😥  At least, not in my neck of the woods.  

Don't look at surface maps. 🙂

[MesoscaleBanding]

7 minutes ago, cperry29 said:

12z UK. This falls Monday night into Tuesday morning.

UK has consistently shown a streak of snowfall on Monday night/Tues. morning...last 4 runs:

[MesoscaleBanding]

GEFS has a weak signal for snowfall across the OV...

 

[MesoscaleBanding]

And then another weak signal for a possible wave in the Wed. night/Thurs. morning time frame:

 

[cperry29]

Icon developing a wave on Wednesday. This is hard to keep track of. So many varying waves. 

[ElectricStorm]

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

My other topic is being closed

Yikes, I hate freezing rain, even if it results in classes being canceled. Hopefully we can get some snow but I'm not getting my hopes up yet.

[MesoscaleBanding]

1 minute ago, cperry29 said:

Icon developing a wave on Wednesday. This is hard to keep track of. So many varying waves. 

Models always seem to struggle mightily with these types of situations (multiple, relatively weak impulses riding along a boundary) in the mid-range. Probably need to get the Sunday system out of the picture before modeling has a decent clue.

[MesoscaleBanding]

Euro has trended north for 3 consecutive runs with this Wed. night/Thursday wave...

 

 

Edited January 27, 2023 by MesoscaleBanding

[JayPSU]

10 minutes ago, MesoscaleBanding said:

Euro has trended north for 3 consecutive runs with this Wed. night/Thursday wave...

 

 

I can't imagine the SE ridge not flexing it's muscles as shown on the medium range model guidance.  We haven't seen anything all winter to suggest that a suppressed pattern will win out.  We shall see...

[MaineJay]

1 hour ago, JayPSU said:

I can't imagine the SE ridge not flexing it's muscles as shown on the medium range model guidance.  We haven't seen anything all winter to suggest that a suppressed pattern will win out.  We shall see...

One thing that's different now, we have a Hudson Bay vortex. If did make a brief appearance for that cold outbreak in December, otherwise, noon existent.  There's a bunch of relatively low amplitude shortwaves rotating around said vortex, and from high latitudes.

  Remains to be seen if any can dig, and dig in a timely manner with the ejecting SW trof.  It very well could be a final shortwave rotating through that digs enough, but that might also kick the vortex wear east, towards Iceland (+NAO)

 Split flow, weatherman's woe.

[FortySixAnd32]

41 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

One thing that's different now, we have a Hudson Bay vortex. If did make a brief appearance for that cold outbreak in December, otherwise, noon existent.  There's a bunch of relatively low amplitude shortwaves rotating around said vortex, and from high latitudes.

  Remains to be seen if any can dig, and dig in a timely manner with the ejecting SW trof.  It very well could be a final shortwave rotating through that digs enough, but that might also kick the vortex wear east, towards Iceland (+NAO)

 Split flow, weatherman's woe.

 

[Sentinel]

15 minutes ago, FortySixAnd32 said:

 

Where'd you find a picture of my bank account? 

[FortySixAnd32]

Just now, Uscg Ast said:

Where'd you find a picture of my bank account? 

I copied and pasted mine!!!! 🤣🤣🤣

[MesoscaleBanding]