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January 19-20, 2023 | NE/Mid-Atl Winter Storm


MaineJay

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Looking like a chance of snow for the northern tier of our region.

Ukie is the most wound up, probably too warm for most.

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ECMWF us the middle ground, and it's the most aggressive with developing the secondary INVOF of LI and depeening it fairly rapidly 13mb/12 hours.  Strength at this lead time is really tough to nail down however.

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GFS is most progressive.

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GFS is trending stronger.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh150_trend.thumb.gif.e0bb68bb5f4ab838598b43cc6254d507.gif

 

Ensemble low centers show the EPS is a little more tightly clustered.

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Euro, GFS, CANADIAN:

ecmwf-deterministic-ne-instant_ptype-1673654400-1674129600-1674302400-20.thumb.gif.e89719128d04c005b4ec311661789a83.gifgfs-deterministic-ne-instant_ptype-1673676000-1674129600-1674302400-20.thumb.gif.78658c0c6a0b9b50b38f6558dac8dc70.gifgem-all-ne-instant_ptype-1673654400-1674140400-1674302400-20.thumb.gif.2ebe393a44702ff4e709b4bda7d63bd9.gif

All look good for MJ ATM, down this way in the HV, the current idea is a snow burst to mix to ice to rain or drizzle. Pretty common for this kind if storm to behave that way, should it happen.

Edited by HVSNOWSTORM
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Man, rinse and repeat, all winter long. And on a Thursdsy into Friday no less!  Now, do we trend this warmer or cooler, weaker or stronger? Regardless, northern NE will do alright, but for us southern peasants, what winter crumbs might we get fed? 

Edited by JDClapper
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27 minutes ago, SkiPatroller said:

What does this map mean? Probability of losing > 0.25" of snowpack?

Ha, I see where the confusion could come from ("melted snow").

This is the chance it could precipitate 0.25"+ qpf of snow /sleet in a 24 hour period.  Blue shading and darker is when weenies can start having some guarded excitement. Unless you live in Maine. Should just be 100% already. 😅

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GYX

Quote
The forecast then becomes more interesting as we approach the
Thursday night and Friday timeframe as a trough over the Rockies
moves eastward while becoming strongly negatively tilted before
interacting with an area of low pressure over the Carolinas. This
area of low pressure is then currently forecast to move
northeastward towards New England before approaching the Gulf of
Maine by late Friday. While changes to the forecast are inevitable
as we get closer to this event, there is the potential for
winter precipitation including plowable snow across much of the
region. There is very strong ensemble support for measurable
precipitation during this timeframe and therefore saw no reason
to go lower than NBM categorical PoPs.

 

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On 1/14/2023 at 7:40 PM, JDClapper said:

Ha, I see where the confusion could come from ("melted snow").

This is the chance it could precipitate 0.25"+ qpf of snow /sleet in a 24 hour period.  Blue shading and darker is when weenies can start having some guarded excitement. Unless you live in Maine. Should just be 100% already. 😅

Thanks, JDC!

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Rooting for the NE folks, will be visiting The Whites in a few weeks. Be nice to see snow somewhere this year 🤣. Last year before our ride home we woke up to a fresh 12” in the parking lot! Here’s what snow looks like if you forgot this year. 

2AEF6814-ADC0-456C-A46F-C864D5214ECD.jpeg

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5 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Tempting to jump on.  Still looking at the 23rd though.

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Yea not much cold seems to work in ahead of the system unfortunately. So some interior normal cold locations can probably manage a little bit of wintry precip sleet/zr. If we have a quicker transfer your area may be able to get in on a little something. Down this way we may setup the typical PA/MD temp gradient where we may only get to upper 30's maybe low 40's while areas around BWI/ DCA get into the mid 50's.

The streakiness in the precip look shows it may potentially have some instability with it and maybe a thunderstorm or two can fire off in the mid atlantic states.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh54-84.gif

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