Admin MaineJay Posted January 14, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 14, 2023 Looking like a chance of snow for the northern tier of our region. Ukie is the most wound up, probably too warm for most. ECMWF us the middle ground, and it's the most aggressive with developing the secondary INVOF of LI and depeening it fairly rapidly 13mb/12 hours. Strength at this lead time is really tough to nail down however. GFS is most progressive. GFS is trending stronger. Ensemble low centers show the EPS is a little more tightly clustered. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 14, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted January 14, 2023 GYX Quote An active pattern then looks to continue through the remainder of the extended forecast with a potentially more impactful storm system arriving late in the week. WPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 14, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted January 14, 2023 The Ukie, despite it's warm look, still pops a coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 (edited) Euro, GFS, CANADIAN: All look good for MJ ATM, down this way in the HV, the current idea is a snow burst to mix to ice to rain or drizzle. Pretty common for this kind if storm to behave that way, should it happen. Edited January 14, 2023 by HVSNOWSTORM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigben89 Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 As long as it's cold enough for snow making at Seven Springs, I couldn't care less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 (edited) Man, rinse and repeat, all winter long. And on a Thursdsy into Friday no less! Now, do we trend this warmer or cooler, weaker or stronger? Regardless, northern NE will do alright, but for us southern peasants, what winter crumbs might we get fed? Edited January 14, 2023 by JDClapper 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 12z ICON 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 12z Canadian same idea snow thump to ice to drizzle/ rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 14, 2023 Share Posted January 14, 2023 15-25% chance of 1" or so in interior PA, per 12z EPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkiPatroller Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 11 hours ago, MaineJay said: GYX WPC What does this map mean? Probability of losing > 0.25" of snowpack? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodozer1 Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 At this point just watching and not expecting anything but rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 27 minutes ago, SkiPatroller said: What does this map mean? Probability of losing > 0.25" of snowpack? Ha, I see where the confusion could come from ("melted snow"). This is the chance it could precipitate 0.25"+ qpf of snow /sleet in a 24 hour period. Blue shading and darker is when weenies can start having some guarded excitement. Unless you live in Maine. Should just be 100% already. 😅 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 15, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted January 15, 2023 GYX Quote The forecast then becomes more interesting as we approach the Thursday night and Friday timeframe as a trough over the Rockies moves eastward while becoming strongly negatively tilted before interacting with an area of low pressure over the Carolinas. This area of low pressure is then currently forecast to move northeastward towards New England before approaching the Gulf of Maine by late Friday. While changes to the forecast are inevitable as we get closer to this event, there is the potential for winter precipitation including plowable snow across much of the region. There is very strong ensemble support for measurable precipitation during this timeframe and therefore saw no reason to go lower than NBM categorical PoPs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 15, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted January 15, 2023 Slight differences between ECMWF and Ukie In regards to snowfall. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 15, 2023 Share Posted January 15, 2023 Where my GLC/OV track fans at? This is your winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted January 15, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 15, 2023 12z Ukie coming around to the idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkiPatroller Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 On 1/14/2023 at 7:40 PM, JDClapper said: Ha, I see where the confusion could come from ("melted snow"). This is the chance it could precipitate 0.25"+ qpf of snow /sleet in a 24 hour period. Blue shading and darker is when weenies can start having some guarded excitement. Unless you live in Maine. Should just be 100% already. 😅 Thanks, JDC! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Euro with more CAD to start the event for i84 area move towards the cmc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Rooting for the NE folks, will be visiting The Whites in a few weeks. Be nice to see snow somewhere this year 🤣. Last year before our ride home we woke up to a fresh 12” in the parking lot! Here’s what snow looks like if you forgot this year. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 16, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 16, 2023 Tempting to jump on. Still looking at the 23rd though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted January 16, 2023 Meteorologist Share Posted January 16, 2023 5 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Tempting to jump on. Still looking at the 23rd though. Yea not much cold seems to work in ahead of the system unfortunately. So some interior normal cold locations can probably manage a little bit of wintry precip sleet/zr. If we have a quicker transfer your area may be able to get in on a little something. Down this way we may setup the typical PA/MD temp gradient where we may only get to upper 30's maybe low 40's while areas around BWI/ DCA get into the mid 50's. The streakiness in the precip look shows it may potentially have some instability with it and maybe a thunderstorm or two can fire off in the mid atlantic states. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted January 17, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 17, 2023 5 hours ago, StretchCT said: Tempting to jump on. Still looking at the 23rd though. Rn, this reads to me as an interior special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 18z NAM has a little bonus for the HV Friday AM. This isn't the first time this feature has showed up on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 18, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted January 18, 2023 SREFs showing a drying trend currently on the northern fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 18, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted January 18, 2023 9 hours ago, MaineJay said: SREFs showing a drying trend currently on the northern fringe. Reversed! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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