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November 15-16, 2022 | Winter Storm

Penn State

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As our fall warmth fades into winter's chill, the potential for a winter storm is on the rise. Much has been made about the upcoming pattern changes, which may result in persistent shots of chill through the end of the month. Now, this particular winter storm potential appears to be rather insignificant and disorganized. The 500mb map is a disjointed mess, and surface depiction has varied from run to run. In terms of teleconnections, there's not much to substantiate this potential. The +NAO, +AO, and -PNA are all unfavorable. There is support from the BSR, which reflects a potential, and the MJO did reach phases 7 and 8. So, overall, I'm not particularly impressed with this potential... and I know I sound like a grumpy old man lol.. Regardless, it is something to be monitored over the next several days and this provides a home for the potential. As always, happy tracking!  

Here is a comparison of the current ensemble forecasts, and all additional details can be found in the spoiler! 



Teleconnections (+NAO, +AO, +PNA)











GFS (12z | Hours 120-180)



ECMWF (12z | Hours 120-180)



GDPS (12z | Hours 120-180)






Edited by Penn State
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NWS-Norman is not going to put out the snow totals, yet.

Zonal upper flow this weekend starts becoming more southwesterly as
another upper wave starts approaching the Southern Plains from the
west, bringing our next cold front along with another round of cold
Canadian air on Monday.  With stable air from this system, not
expecting any convection but a cold rain on Monday afternoon.
However, could see a wintry mix of precipitation Monday morning as
well as late in the evening as temperatures drop below freezing.
Although southwest Oklahoma through north Texas are unlikely to see
any wintry precipitation, still rather early to discriminate wintry
precipitation types, but with this frigid air mass snow
precipitation is most likely.  Upper troughing will maintain our
cooling trend through the middle of next week.
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16 minutes ago, JDClapper said:

18z GFS has you watching the right hand for 11/16 while attempting to pull a rabbit out of its hat with the left hand (11/18). Let the typical winter modelling shenanigans begin! 🙂

Hey.. I’m just hoping this threat is enough to bring out the ol’ Clapper Tracker.

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It looks like the initial wave that was forecasted on 15/16th might just be a WAA push per the GFS. Some places into PA may get some sleet/ flakes Wednesday morning early afternoon. The real action looks now to be 17th into the 18th with the energy finally getting kicked out of the SW/Plains. Looks like a classic inland system at this stage with snow from eastern OH through western and some of central PA and much of upstate NY and into the VT/NH region and of course Maine.

The Euro on the other hand still offers the 16th as the main system (weak) but still offers the same path for snowfall as the GFS shows. The pieces are disjointed on the Euro which keeps the system at bay and doesn't get it going until Maine region.

The battle continues between the two models. Rather large differences in the models 5 days out... great way to start the season!

I extended the GFS run to include the later system potential. From a quick glance at the initial time of hr 132 off the 00z runs there are differences in trough orientation and position. Euro is east more so toward MN/eastern ND for the trough axis where as GFS has it in western ND /MT area. That is huge which gives the GFS the reasoning of a later system versus the weaker Euro version.

CMC i did not add but initially looks fairly close to Euro but then develops the later system like the GFS, pieces overall disconnected and weak. We should know better after we push through the tropical system by this Friday. Handling of the ridge off the west coast and the upper level troughing around Greenland will be key so it seems. Cutoff ridge with Euro and less influence around Hudson Bay of the upper level low around Greenland mean earlier wave gets attention. More influence from the upper level low around Greenland and more positive tilt to the ridge along the west means energy gets held back.



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Thoughts overall still the same regardless of each model timing/ outcome. Snow swath from western/portions of central PA (can probably include the Poconos), into western NY (maybe can extend into the Catskills now), VT and NH can also probably include areas of eastern OH and WV if precip doesn't move out too quick. Maine folks you already know except maybe coastal regions will be a tough call depending on exact track. Low rides along eastern Apps to just around 95 corridor. Most are rain except high terrain and again just how much cold air can get in to those NW will determine how much snow falls. Coastal areas could push 50's maybe even localized 60s while most stay in the low 40's maybe even upper 30's. Tis the season!

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Just to reiterate, using BSR it implied 3 waves between about Nov 13-20, with the last one the strongest.  The first wave seems to reasonably jive with the trof that picks up Nicole. Second might be a slightly sheared system in this time frame.  Third could be the "meat and potatoes".


BSR even depicted numerous pieces of energy trying to interact.  Gonna be tough for models to resolve energy rounding the high amplitude -EPO ridge developing over Alaska, as well as how energy consolidates into the developing associated Hudson Bay trof.  

  There seems to be a battle between energy that feeds into the -EPO trof, and energy that tries to scoot out to the east and keep the NAO positive.

  Looks like we have more than one spin on the wheel, but sorting the energies it will take time. 


I had only 2 mornings below freezing this season, so anything that could fall might not really stick around.  Would be nice to see some mood flakes though, haven't even sniffed a chance this fall.  Selfishly I told folks Nov 14 for first flakes a couple weeks ago.  In truth, a weak prognostication that is based on climo. 

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12 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

I'm the weather forecaster for my own school district.

For a long time, i have been the informal one for my colleagues, thanks to the knowledge and wisdom of these forums!  But the district actually pays a guy.  He's really good - generally right in line with the best and the brightest in here.  

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Euro and GFS both with snow following this atmospheric shakeup.  Two different ideas, even though the snow maps look similar. I might lean toward the GFS on this one.

From the AFD

Global guidance then begins to disagree during the middle of next week. It looks like the next chance of any precipitation will be some period from late Tuesday through Wednesday night as shortwave energy ejects out of the southwestern US and an associated frontal system passes to the south. Where the models disagree is in placement and strength of these features. The ECMWF is the fastest and strongest solution, with the GFS and Canadian a bit slower and weaker. For now have went with slight chance to chance PoPs. Given the cold airmass, there is also a chance of a light/rain snow mix across interior CT and Lower Hudson Valley.



Edited by StretchCT
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11 minutes ago, RobB said:

Greetings, all.  Long time no see.  Is it snow and cold season yet? 🙂


I'm thinking it is time for the Heat Miser to step aside for the Snow Miser.

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I guess this should be expected.. but the differences between the CMC and GFS are pretty stark. I'm thinking, and I believe @so_whats_happening mentioned this earlier, that a lot of this will depend on the ejection of energy out of the SW. If it holds back, the storm occurs later, and might have more juice, be further NW. If that energy ejects early, the storm is weak and further SE.  Does that sound right? I'm curious to see what the Euro shows in a few moments. 

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1 hour ago, JDClapper said:

12z keeps it alive.



Would be pretty awesome to get a hit with our first threat of the season. I'm so ready for winter and ❄️


GFS has another nice looking one with more widespread snow on the 22nd but that's for another thread. But point is there are several shots at snow between beginning of next week through the end of the month.

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