Iceresistance Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 This is the system that has been driving the models crazy in the past several runs. Spoiler 2. Central Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is forecast during the next several days as the system approaches the Windward Islands, and a tropical depression could form toward the latter part of this week or weekend as the system moves into the eastern and central Caribbean sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. It could be either Gaston or Hermine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 20, 2022 Admin Share Posted September 20, 2022 Models are pretty bullish on this. Deterministic models bring it into the GOMEX. EPS members largely in the Gulf GEFS mainly east of FL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 20, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 20, 2022 You just beat me to it. It’s not really far off either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 20, 2022 Author Share Posted September 20, 2022 Now Designated as Invest 98L, the vorticity is apparently already stacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 20, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 20, 2022 (edited) Vis sat looks messy. But models have this pretty close to TS strength in 24 hrs Edited September 20, 2022 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 20, 2022 Author Share Posted September 20, 2022 1 minute ago, StretchCT said: Vis sat looks messy. But models have this pretty close to TS strength in 24 hrs I don't think it's going to be a TS in the next 24 hours for now, ASCAT does not show a close circulation, but a very sharp tropical wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 This is up to 40/70 now. Quote Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1055 AM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Fiona, located near the Turks and Caicos islands, and on newly formed Tropical Depression Eight, located over the north-central Atlantic Ocean. 1. Central Tropical Atlantic: Updated: Satellite data indicate that the tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands has become better organized this morning. Additional development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Windward Islands should closely monitor the progress of this system as heavy rainfall and gusty winds could affect these islands beginning on Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight are issued under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eight are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. Forecaster Bucci Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 20, 2022 Author Share Posted September 20, 2022 18 minutes ago, snowlover2 said: This is up to 40/70 now. That escalated quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 12z GFS with a more west track in the GOM than the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 20, 2022 Author Share Posted September 20, 2022 Still getting higher chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 20, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 20, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 21, 2022 Author Share Posted September 21, 2022 (edited) NHC goes full code red for 98L 70/90% chance Edited September 21, 2022 by Iceresistance Typo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 21, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 21, 2022 (edited) Beating a dead horse at this point but 18z GFS has 929mb at its deepest. Quickly weakens on its approach to the coast. It's due to the presence of shear, so that should lower the ceiling for coastal impact. But if the shear close to the shore is weaker than expected, yikes. Edited September 21, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 21, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 21, 2022 Scary trend in the past day or so Thankfully, we're still seeing the shear weakening the hurricane before landfall. So that limits the ceiling of the hurricane, but there's no doubt we're looking at what may be the most significant landfall of 2022. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrazyINwx Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 Latest Euro is further south and stronger than its 12z counterpart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 This is spawning in sone of the most fertile waters There are one too watch for sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 “No cap” pun intended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 Looking like a right time right place situation for a monster storm. I'm getting my popcorn ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 22, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 22, 2022 (edited) FWIW, latest 18z GFS drops the 13mb (938mb-951mb) from peak to landfall. 12z dropped it 19mb (943mb-962mb). 6z dropped 22mb (927mb-949mb). 0z dropped 23mb (928mb-951mb) The weakening from peak to landfall is trending lower and lower. Unsettling trend, especially considering GFS is likely to underestimate hurricane strength because that's not its specialty. That said, 18z GFS has the peak around 10mb lower than the peak of the runs over the past day. Landfalling strength has been pretty consistent since 0z, excluding the 12z run. Edited September 22, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 22, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 22, 2022 Hmmm, it’s there somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 Nothing to move it along on 0z Very large 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist Ingyball Posted September 22, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 22, 2022 Hey Y'all it's been a while since I've been on. Been busy with training and starting up some projects this summer. This one is looking like the real deal right now. Storm looks to be over South America at the moment so it will be interesting to see how the models respond to that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 22, 2022 Admin Share Posted September 22, 2022 Here's a fairly new, experimental product from the GFDL. available here https://shield.gfdl.noaa.gov/?model=T-SHiELD_2022&YMDH=2022092118®ion=stormscale_AL98&field=wind10m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1816 Posted September 22, 2022 Share Posted September 22, 2022 38 minutes ago, MaineJay said: Here's a fairly new, experimental product from the GFDL. available here https://shield.gfdl.noaa.gov/?model=T-SHiELD_2022&YMDH=2022092118®ion=stormscale_AL98&field=wind10m 👀 that track avoiding every mountain in the caribbean 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 22, 2022 Author Share Posted September 22, 2022 The 6z GFS nearly slams this into Texas. Makes landfall in Louisiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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