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Ex-Ian | 160 mph 937 mb peak | Historic and Catastrophic Damage in Florida | TCR Upgrades Ian to Category 5


Iceresistance

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1 hour ago, MaineJay said:

There are situations where shear can actually cause RI in hurricanes.

Currently, it appears the convection is out running the low level circulation, but they look like they are trying to align.

ezgif-5-c5d0e6d326.gif.060b2a8ff198d03b7d19848edb5dfb26.gif

This looks formidable when the shear eases 

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East coast has to watch the timing with the trough and whether it escapes to sea with it or if it lags and a high builds over it.  
9B54AA70-1457-499C-B1EF-D152A31EC446.png.022a27b5ef11f18b96534c943948919a.png

 

Edit : GFS6z run shows this happening, except it doesn't turn the storm into the east coast, just cuts it off.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_fh120-240.thumb.gif.5dfaf0e4c4314a481127b05d1b9d018f.gif

Double edit:  Oh geez, this is what happens when I don't check models first.ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_eus_57.thumb.png.aed1005b7277fd296ddfa2ced6de7103.png

Edited by StretchCT
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List of the winds from the second mission. Almost every pass has sfc winds at ts force.  But flight level doesn't support and they didn't report on sfmr winds in the vortex message.  edit: just noticed it's flying at 925mb, so I wonder if that has something to do with it.  Even in COC the winds are still in the 30s.  Or faulty equip.

1090499136_ScreenShot2022-09-23at8_47_51AM.thumb.png.590ab12080019922269dfde65d71ff62.png1648021049_ScreenShot2022-09-23at8_49_51AM.png.8a83b1cf9ba5a558b2e21803725a7baf.png

Edited by StretchCT
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Massive shift since yesterday.  Was initially going to head up north through Alabama and then curve NE and hit us, but now it looks to be pushed further east but at the end it appears to do a loop and look to reform.  However run ended, so have to wait for the next run or 2 to see what they're predicting.

 

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_fh108-384.thumb.gif.8fc225981066265c73aa353f969c9a25.gif

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17 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

A friend in North Carolina already texted me asking about "the hurricane". I assumed he meant Fiona because this storm isn't even named yet, but he did mean this one because I guess he's going to a Clemson game next Saturday. 

So I guess the cat has been let out of the bag in the local media in North Carolina. A little early, but I don't see a hurricane not verifying from this tropical wave.

In a sports related board I frequent they have been talking about this for the exact sane reason, Clemson game, I suspect one of them is a Met, still kind of funny that following invests and depressions on sports board is becoming normalized due to the availability of modeling and data with some accuracy

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1 hour ago, clm said:

GFS now singing a different tune in the latest run.  Euro saying LI has a direct hit.

floop-ecmwf_full-2022092300.prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.gif.fdf8c24cb9f4f6c9ef8341fae6be97cd.gif

floop-gfs-2022092312.prateptype_cat.conus.gif

Oh great, now my mind is going to the JAX rule. I figure it probably doesn't apply in September with tropical systems, but since I can't actually remember what the rule is, I'm not even sure. :classic_laugh:

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3 minutes ago, Tater said:

Oh great, now my mind is going to the JAX rule. I figure it probably doesn't apply in September with tropical systems, but since I can't actually remember what the rule is, I'm not even sure. :classic_laugh:

They say something is the first to go but I forget what it was.

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10 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Sure looks like the coc is catching up to the convection. At least the western side of the circulation is under it.

goes16_vis-swir_09L_202209231725.thumb.gif.a8ac6e6fbc57e8b3eee923df2724cdb6.gif

 

That's some really explosive convection. Can't wait to see what happens when the sun sets AND it moves into the very warm and deep warm pool. 

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Pretty crazy to see a persistent overshooting top in an environment with obviously weak shear. You usually see this kind of persistent overshooting top with high-end derechos or significant supercells. This is just some sort of cyclical single cell thing. Extreme lift pushes the updraft through the tropopause... storm dies out quick, another one pops up immediately. 

Anyway, that's what I'm guessing is happening since we don't have radar. But this is not a case where a storm can be long-lived by any means

Quoting the below post in case my post buries StretchCT's

Edit: I didn't bury it so oh well I'll just keep it up

Edit 2: I'm wrong, there's some shear in the upper-levels. Satellite is a little misleading because the storms are building northeast, away from the huge area of debris clouds.

Definitely not enough shear for a persistent storm structure though.

goes16_ir_09L_202209231745.thumb.gif.9f818bcde1cb89b47958e59ece9166fb.gif

1 hour ago, StretchCT said:

So the convection looked like it was trying to wrap around clockwise.  Dr. Cowan explains...

 

 

Edited by ClicheVortex2014
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12 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Pretty crazy to see a persistent overshooting top in an environment with obviously weak shear. You usually see this kind of persistent overshooting top with high-end derechos or significant supercells. This is just some sort of cyclical single cell thing. Extreme lift pushes the updraft through the tropopause... storm dies out quick, another one pops up immediately. 

Anyway, that's what I'm guessing is happening since we don't have radar. But this is not a case where a storm can be long-lived by any means

Quoting the below post in case my post buries StretchCT's

Edit: I didn't bury it so oh well I'll just keep it up

 

goes16_ir_09L_202209231745.gif

The NHC said in their latest discussion that the favorable conditions might be a little faster than expected. (got a hint from the word 'already' 

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