Iceresistance Posted September 23, 2022 Author Share Posted September 23, 2022 I do want to mention that this system is going crazy in my other weather forum (S2K) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 23, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 23, 2022 1 hour ago, MaineJay said: There are situations where shear can actually cause RI in hurricanes. Currently, it appears the convection is out running the low level circulation, but they look like they are trying to align. This looks formidable when the shear eases Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 23, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 23, 2022 (edited) East coast has to watch the timing with the trough and whether it escapes to sea with it or if it lags and a high builds over it. Edit : GFS6z run shows this happening, except it doesn't turn the storm into the east coast, just cuts it off. Double edit: Oh geez, this is what happens when I don't check models first. Edited September 23, 2022 by StretchCT 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 23, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 23, 2022 NHC not going with a major storm. Interaction with Cuba and shear on day 5 is expected. They max out at 110 in the disco. It does seem to move rather fast too. Aruba to Naples in 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 23, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 23, 2022 Recon showing a lot of 40kt+ sfmr winds, but a lot are tainted. A bunch aren’t though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted September 23, 2022 Admin Share Posted September 23, 2022 Microwave shot shows this has a ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 23, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 23, 2022 (edited) List of the winds from the second mission. Almost every pass has sfc winds at ts force. But flight level doesn't support and they didn't report on sfmr winds in the vortex message. edit: just noticed it's flying at 925mb, so I wonder if that has something to do with it. Even in COC the winds are still in the 30s. Or faulty equip. Edited September 23, 2022 by StretchCT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Massive shift since yesterday. Was initially going to head up north through Alabama and then curve NE and hit us, but now it looks to be pushed further east but at the end it appears to do a loop and look to reform. However run ended, so have to wait for the next run or 2 to see what they're predicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 23, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 23, 2022 COC going WNW. Vort message says max visible winds 25kts. No sfmr winds reported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 23, 2022 Author Share Posted September 23, 2022 12 minutes ago, StretchCT said: COC going WNW. Vort message says max visible winds 25kts. No sfmr winds reported. SFMR does not work very well when you're flying very close to the sea level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 17 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: A friend in North Carolina already texted me asking about "the hurricane". I assumed he meant Fiona because this storm isn't even named yet, but he did mean this one because I guess he's going to a Clemson game next Saturday. So I guess the cat has been let out of the bag in the local media in North Carolina. A little early, but I don't see a hurricane not verifying from this tropical wave. In a sports related board I frequent they have been talking about this for the exact sane reason, Clemson game, I suspect one of them is a Met, still kind of funny that following invests and depressions on sports board is becoming normalized due to the availability of modeling and data with some accuracy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 (edited) Nhc is now going with a Major hurricane at second landfall with RI occurring just north of cuba where ocean temps and heat potential are very potent Edited September 23, 2022 by Poco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 (edited) Depth of the 20 and 26 degree Celsius isotherm http://isotherm.rsmas.miami.edu/heat/weba/atlantic.php Edited September 23, 2022 by Poco 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 12z gfs misses prior upper level influence this run slows down second landfall and tracks it north into the panhandle I believe. Can’t really dig in right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 GFS now singing a different tune in the latest run. Euro saying LI has a direct hit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Tater Posted September 23, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 23, 2022 1 hour ago, clm said: GFS now singing a different tune in the latest run. Euro saying LI has a direct hit. Oh great, now my mind is going to the JAX rule. I figure it probably doesn't apply in September with tropical systems, but since I can't actually remember what the rule is, I'm not even sure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clm Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, Tater said: Oh great, now my mind is going to the JAX rule. I figure it probably doesn't apply in September with tropical systems, but since I can't actually remember what the rule is, I'm not even sure. They say something is the first to go but I forget what it was. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 23, 2022 Author Share Posted September 23, 2022 It's the curse of 2020, nothing is normal anymore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poco Posted September 23, 2022 Share Posted September 23, 2022 Can see A tower starting to approach the CoC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 23, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 23, 2022 (edited) Don't like the idea of nearly stalling west of Tampa BAY. Yikes. Edited September 23, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 23, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 23, 2022 Sure looks like the coc is catching up to the convection. At least the western side of the circulation is under it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 23, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 23, 2022 10 minutes ago, StretchCT said: Sure looks like the coc is catching up to the convection. At least the western side of the circulation is under it. That's some really explosive convection. Can't wait to see what happens when the sun sets AND it moves into the very warm and deep warm pool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted September 23, 2022 Moderators Share Posted September 23, 2022 So the convection looked like it was trying to wrap around clockwise. Dr. Cowan explains... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted September 23, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted September 23, 2022 (edited) Pretty crazy to see a persistent overshooting top in an environment with obviously weak shear. You usually see this kind of persistent overshooting top with high-end derechos or significant supercells. This is just some sort of cyclical single cell thing. Extreme lift pushes the updraft through the tropopause... storm dies out quick, another one pops up immediately. Anyway, that's what I'm guessing is happening since we don't have radar. But this is not a case where a storm can be long-lived by any means Quoting the below post in case my post buries StretchCT's Edit: I didn't bury it so oh well I'll just keep it up Edit 2: I'm wrong, there's some shear in the upper-levels. Satellite is a little misleading because the storms are building northeast, away from the huge area of debris clouds. Definitely not enough shear for a persistent storm structure though. 1 hour ago, StretchCT said: So the convection looked like it was trying to wrap around clockwise. Dr. Cowan explains... Edited September 23, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted September 23, 2022 Author Share Posted September 23, 2022 12 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Pretty crazy to see a persistent overshooting top in an environment with obviously weak shear. You usually see this kind of persistent overshooting top with high-end derechos or significant supercells. This is just some sort of cyclical single cell thing. Extreme lift pushes the updraft through the tropopause... storm dies out quick, another one pops up immediately. Anyway, that's what I'm guessing is happening since we don't have radar. But this is not a case where a storm can be long-lived by any means Quoting the below post in case my post buries StretchCT's Edit: I didn't bury it so oh well I'll just keep it up The NHC said in their latest discussion that the favorable conditions might be a little faster than expected. (got a hint from the word 'already' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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