April 18-19, 2022 | Spring "Winter" Storm

[telejunkie]

Don't have a lot of time to spend on this...but looks like we've got a bowling ball bundle of energy moving almost due west to east just south of the Canadian border. If some model depictions are correct, it could dig deep enough and go negative in a good spot to generate a decent enough surface reaction for a Miller B type coastal storm. As always, that's enough ifs to give pause. But if the stars do align, we've got what could be a decent snow storm for higher elevation locales from Mid-Atlantic up through Maine.

[MaineJay]

Ecmwf

UKIE

 

 

[MaineJay]

GEFS

East Asia

 

[TLChip]

Some snowfall matrixes, just picked some random areas.
 

[MaineJay]

GEFS

Ecmwf

[Iceresistance]

23 hours ago, MaineJay said:

GEFS

East Asia

 

Typhoon Malakas may encourage more severe weather action across the USA by amplifying the Jet Stream

[TLChip]

Oof that looks like heavy wet snow 😵

[MaineJay]

Last 4 12z EPS

[telejunkie]

Looks like GFS is the least excited by this while CMC, Ukie, and Euro all showing a more impressive system. Agree @TLChip could be a heavy wet snowfall....and probably pretty elevation dependent as it's not exactly a bomb of a storm.

[MaineJay]

Pivotal is having some issue, so everything is free right now, grab whatcha can!

EPS low centers

850 mean temps with a neat way of displaying spread.

[MaineJay]

Last 8 GFS

[Iceresistance]

2 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Last 8 GFS

Definitely trending WSW. It used to be north of Maine, & now it's over New York.

[MaineJay]

4 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Definitely trending WSW. It used to be north of Maine, & now it's over New York.

It's going to be tough outside of the mountains I think, but not writing it off.  We are also talking August like sun angle, so time of day might really come into play as well.  

   I'm down with tracking something wintry one last time this season, even if it's only a tease.

[MaineJay]

GYX

Next up will be the passage of a low pressure system through
the greater Northeast region on Tuesday into Wednesday. The main
thing to keep an eye on at this stage is the position of high
pressure on Monday... if its a cooler, drier feed from the north
it opens the door for the a CAD situation and wintry
precipitation, as far south as the coast. The second thing to
keep an eye on is where cyclogenesis ultimately occurs as an
occlusion and upper level low reaches the coast early Tuesday.
If the low primary circulation remains north toward the Saint
Lawrence, more rain is anticipated with more warm air flowing
northward. Should the coastal circulation become dominant
however warm air intrusion is limited with more snow likely.
Hedged toward cooler solutions since the coastal systems
ultimately win out. For snow potential... around 50% of ensemble
members give some sort of accums through the foothills, with
most giving snow toward the international border, and just a
couple members giving snow along the coast. So, confidence is
increasing that snow will fall over the northern half of the
area with rain remaining more likely toward the coast. Being day
6 however this will bare close watching.

 

[JDClapper]

I'm just here for the snowmaps. 😄

[JDClapper]

Estimating.. 33% chance of something to measure down this way. Looks like timing is OK.. late Monday/early Tuesday

[Hiramite]

Following...

All 3 models kind to NE OH.

[Hiramite]

11 hours ago, MaineJay said:

It's going to be tough outside of the mountains I think, but not writing it off.  We are also talking August like sun angle, so time of day might really come into play as well.  

   I'm down with tracking something wintry one last time this season, even if it's only a tease.

After last year's mid-day Mother's Day snow here that accumulated, even on the roads, I'm a believer in rates and the density of the cloud cover overcoming any sun angle.

[MaineJay]

GFS

What are you doing NAM.

[MaineJay]

RGEM

[TLChip]

Snows like this are fun, most times it doesn’t even lay but when it does it’s gone after a few hours of sun.
VT/NH/ME looks to collect a fresh coat for the mountains. 

[JDClapper]

2 hours ago, MaineJay said:

GFS

What are you doing NAM.

8pm.. sun setting, i like it. Slow down a tad would be even better.

[TheRex]

If it does snow, I should get credit for it.  I packed away all my snow shovels on Monday and brought out the push mower and cranked the zero turn even though the yard is still too wet for the big mower.  

[MaineJay]

EPS gives me about a 50/50 shot for a little snow here.

 

[MaineJay]

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
...Potential Coastal Storm on Tuesday Could Bring Interior Wet Snow
and Minor Coastal Flooding...
Long term period 500...Potential Coastal Storm on Tuesday Could
Bring Interior Wet Snow and Minor Coastal Flooding...
500mb pattern int the long term will bring a progressive low
amplitude pattern to the Northeast. Looks to be two shortwave
features next week with the Tuesday one being the strongest wave
that could potential closed low over the state. The second
shortwave looks to pass through later on in the week on Thursday
night or Friday as an open wave. Overall temperatures will
trend a little below normal next week with Thursday being the
best chance for above normal temperatures. Precip will also
trend a little above normal due to the potential for 1" + with
the Tuesday system. Overall confidence is about average for the
overall pattern evolution with most model camps in good
agreement.
Sunday night the region will be under cyclonic northwest flow with a
chilly night as a polar airmass advects in with 850mb temps around -
6C supporting a below freezing night. Monday looks to be a nice with
shortwave mid-level ridging and a surface high centered across
Southern New England bring sunny skies allowing highs to rebound
back into the 50s. Return flow quickly becomes established Monday
evening and night as the next mid-level shortwave approaches from
the Ohio River Valley. In addition, a weak Cape Hatteras surface low
will begin to take shape by 06Z Tues and begin to rapidly deepen as
it quickly moves up the eastern seaboard.  Still some disagreement
on how quickly the primary low associated with the mid-level support
will phase with the coastal low, but almost all ensemble members
support the coastal low deepening and becoming occluded over Maine
by Tuesday night now. Most guidance has trended slightly east
compared to the 12z runs with track of the coastal low which would
support a colder solution. Due to this ran with the 25th percentile
for the NBM temp fields due to the further east shift, but still
plenty of time for things to shift back further west.  Overall the
EC was the furthest west scenario but even its 18z ensemble mean
tracked further east, so feel confident this is the overall trend.
Sensible weather wise, this storm has all the marks of a elevation
dependent wet snow event. Timing looks good at this point with
precip breaking out before day break on Tuesday morning, with a
relatively dry polar antecedent airmass in place. This will
support wet-bulb processes that could allow for snow levels to
drop to the surface for at least a brief period across most of
the region at the onset. After that, everything will ride on the
exact surface low track and how close it travels to the coast.
Right now, confidence is highest for accumulating snow across
interior NH, especially above 1K feet and across the Western
Maine Mtns. One thing that is certain there will be a 6 to 9hr
window of moderate precipitation  on Tuesday with good signals
for 1" of QPF across most of the region with high IVT anomalies
and impressive FGEN forcing at 850-700mb levels. Surface low
won`t be overly strong, with consensus only around a 988mb low,
so easterly to northeasterly winds won`t be strong but it will
still by gusty on the coast.

GYX