Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 1, 2022 Meteorologist Share Posted April 1, 2022 (edited) This has the looks of a multi-day outbreak. Below are 0z GFS valid for 8pm Eastern on the 4th, 5th, and 6th. Edited April 6, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 1, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 1, 2022 (edited) Precip loop. Notice how there's a signal for a MCS on the 5th and then a cold front on the 6th. Pretty stubborn low, too. Edited April 1, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 1, 2022 Share Posted April 1, 2022 You beat me to it. Lol April is starting to look very very favorable for severe weather on the ensembles. Very strong signal imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 1, 2022 Share Posted April 1, 2022 Days 4-6 highlighted by SPC now. Here we go again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 1, 2022 Share Posted April 1, 2022 This is not an April Fools joke, this is real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 1, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 1, 2022 8 hours ago, StormfanaticInd said: You beat me to it. Lol April is starting to look very very favorable for severe weather on the ensembles. Very strong signal imo Might not be able to get moisture back for the second week of April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 1, 2022 Share Posted April 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Might not be able to get moisture back for the second week of April That's just the GFS, it sounds like the conflict between the Operational models & the Ensembles are coming back again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 1, 2022 Share Posted April 1, 2022 57 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Might not be able to get moisture back for the second week of April 🤨 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 1, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 1, 2022 4 hours ago, Iceresistance said: That's just the GFS, it sounds like the conflict between the Operational models & the Ensembles are coming back again I mean this is a hell of a system… sub-1000mb for a few days. Causes some backside snow. I’ll be surprised if the cold front doesn’t move through the Gulf 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 1, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 1, 2022 (edited) Nasty sounding for just southeast of Cleveland Edited April 1, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 4 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: I mean this is a hell of a system… sub-1000mb for a few days. Causes some backside snow. I’ll be surprised if the cold front doesn’t move through the Gulf Noticed that the Cold Front gets past Cuba, that's rare for April terms 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 2, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 2, 2022 4 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Nasty sounding for just southeast of Cleveland Next run doesn't even bring it close to Cleveland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 0z GFS is showing quite the instability there for 4/5 and especially 4/6. Of course there's more to it than just that but we just saw what Wednesday was able to do with not much instability. Hopefully we see it downtrend but we're entering the peak month for severe weather in the deep south so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 Also Sunday just got double-upgraded to a slight risk for wind and hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 SPC has a lot Slight risks, 6 days in a row, most since May 2019 4/2/2022 - Central Florida 4/3/2022 - SW Oklahoma & NW Texas 4/4/2022 - From most of Texas & Southern Oklahoma to Southern Mississippi 4/5/2022 - Most of the Southeast, from Louisiana to Florida to Extreme SE South Carolina 4/6/2022 - Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, & Far Eastern North Carolina 4/7/2022 - Coastal South Carolina, North Carolina, & Virginia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 This is also looking likely at the same time with the Severe Weather, when was the last time something like this has coincided with the Severe Weather (Which is to the east of it) for multiple days in a row? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 3, 2022 Share Posted April 3, 2022 (edited) There may be quite a few of you who may not remember this, but 4/2/2006 was a day with a whopping 872 storm reports, and 86 preliminary tornado reports, 66 confirmed tornado reports (according to Wikipedia), and some deadly tornadoes. The storm report map did not have the distinction between filtered and unfiltered reports at that time. (I am not sure if the SPC posted filtered storm report information on the map.) The lower Ohio River is covered with blue and green report dots. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/060402_rpts.html Old-style SCP map (SPC Mesonalsyis) https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/ma_archive/images_s4/20060402/20_scp.gif wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak_of_April_2,_2006 other parameters and synoptic maps https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/IMAGES/NARR4p/200604/NARR4pSVR_2006040300.png https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/IMAGES/NARR4p/200604/NARR4pSYN1b_2006040300.png Edited April 3, 2022 by Chinook 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElectricStorm Posted April 3, 2022 Share Posted April 3, 2022 Day 1 outlook is out, slight risk has been expanded a bit. Not really any tornado threat as of right now but wind and hail could be a problem. Could help with the drought in the area though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 3, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 3, 2022 (edited) Can always count on there to be severe weather on the anniversary of the 1974 Super Outbreak. Coming up on 50 years soon. Dayton sounding about 3 hours after the Cincinnati and Xenia F5s. Unfortunately, they didn't do a 18z sounding. Otherwise that would've sampled the environment 2 hours before the infamous tornadoes. Edited April 3, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted April 3, 2022 Share Posted April 3, 2022 That wind outside is just crazy right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 3, 2022 Share Posted April 3, 2022 4 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: Can always count on there to be severe weather on the anniversary of the 1974 Super Outbreak. Coming up on 50 years soon. Dayton sounding about 3 hours after the Cincinnati and Xenia F5s. Unfortunately, they didn't do a 18z sounding. Otherwise that would've sampled the environment 2 hours before the infamous tornadoes. yeah, so crazy to think that one way to look back at this is with somebody's camera photo/polaroid of a radar screen, now you could have megabytes of data at your disposal on various radar computer programs to investigate the a tornado such as the Xenia tornado. This my best observed data from *Dayton, Ohio* from the time period of the April 11, 1965 tornado outbreak, which nearly hit my mom and dad, even though they were in different cities! http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/SevereStorms/Other_radar_images/Apr_12_1965_00z_DAY_sounding.gif 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 3, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 3, 2022 (edited) 3 hours ago, Chinook said: yeah, so crazy to think that one way to look back at this is with somebody's camera photo/polaroid of a radar screen, now you could have megabytes of data at your disposal on various radar computer programs to investigate the a tornado such as the Xenia tornado. This my best observed data from *Dayton, Ohio* from the time period of the April 11, 1965 tornado outbreak, which nearly hit my mom and dad, even though they were in different cities! http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/SevereStorms/Other_radar_images/Apr_12_1965_00z_DAY_sounding.gif The scale and magnitude of 1974, and to a lesser extent 1965, is unfathomable. I see some people on Twitter ask what tornadoes/tornado outbreaks you wish you had super hires radar for… I don’t know how either of those outbreaks aren’t unanimously #1. Jarrell and Bridge Creek-Moore are basically the only other answers but they deserve the #3+ spot imo Edited April 3, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 3, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 3, 2022 (edited) Got a 90 sigtor ingredient contour for tomorrow. The question will be if a supercell can develop and stay ahead of the maturing MCS long enough to really get going. Tomorrow looks like the first relatively strongly unstable MCS day Edited April 3, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 3, 2022 Share Posted April 3, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said: The scale and magnitude of 1974, and to a lesser extent 1965, is unfathomable. I see some people on Twitter ask what tornadoes/tornado outbreaks you wish you had super hires radar for… I don’t know how either of those outbreaks aren’t unanimously #1. Jarrell and Bridge Creek-Moore are basically the only other answers but they deserve the #3+ spot imo Here's my image of the 2013 Moore tornado based on Level-2 archived data. I can pull up data from the original day, but that was only GRLevel3, which is a little worse. It is still possible to download Level-2 or Level-3 data from 1999, but I am pretty sure the Hi-res is not going to be there, and dual-pol won't be there. Edited April 3, 2022 by Chinook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 3, 2022 Author Meteorologist Share Posted April 3, 2022 (edited) 19 minutes ago, Chinook said: Here's my image of the 2013 Moore tornado based on Level-2 archived data. I can pull up data from the original day, but that was only GRLevel3, which is a little worse. It is still possible to download Level-2 or Level-3 data from 1999, but I am pretty sure the Hi-res is not going to be there, and dual-pol won't be there. Yeah I have GR2 data from 5/3/99 but of course, it's the bare essentials and low quality. It was only a touch better than the modern composite reflectivity. Dual-pol was introduced in 2012 so that's out of the question Edited April 3, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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