April 3-6, 2022 | Tornado Outbreak

[Iceresistance]

50 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Yeah I have GR2 data from 5/3/99 but of course, it's the bare essentials and low quality. It was only a touch better than the modern composite reflectivity.

Dual-pol was introduced in 2012 so that's out of the question

It's possible that someone may reconstruct the supercell & re-run it as if to say "If the May 3rd, 1999 Monster Supercell came back today." And put it to now where the Velocity & Shear rate exists today.

[ClicheVortex2014]

13 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

It's possible that someone may reconstruct the supercell & re-run it as if to say "If the May 3rd, 1999 Monster Supercell came back today." And put it to now where the Velocity & Shear rate exists today.

Problem is that we would need to know the exact conditions in the vicinity of the supercell. We can make some assumptions based on the closest soundings, but it's not gonna produce reliable results. There's also likely some storm-scale processes that we don't understand yet, or at least can't simulate. Maybe we'll get there some day, but the biggest issue is getting the exact conditions near the supercell throughout the troposphere.

A supercell that produces the strongest tornado on record would have to have the absolute perfect conditions, perfectly balanced, on a local scale. Push it in one way or the other and you could throw off the balance.

Edited April 3, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

LP supercells got kicked off in Texas. Conditions might be favorable for splitting supercells... at least it's approaching that. Just gotta strengthen the upper-level winds a bit more.

 

 

Edited April 4, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

ARW and NSSL for tomorrow evening/overnight. Scary looking MCS. Pretty clear MCV develops. Could impact the severe weather threat on Tuesday, but if the MCS nosedives toward the Gulf like this then that'll complicate things.

[Iceresistance]

19 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

LP supercells got kicked off in Texas. Conditions might be favorable for splitting supercells... at least it's approaching that. Just gotta strengthen the upper-level winds a bit more.

 

 

The one on I-20 has an absolutely tiny couplet.

[ClicheVortex2014]

I can see this being a sneaky tornado day between the mesovortices in the MCS, the supercells ahead of the bow, and maybe some clustered cells northeast of the bow.

Edited April 4, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

That MCS really shuts down any thunderstorm activity outside of the MCS because it has such a huge impact on moisture. But as the MCS moves into the Atlantic, richer moisture begins returning to the Southern Plains... beginning to set the stage for Wednesday.

Edited April 4, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[Iceresistance]

I need someone to contact Val Castor or News 9 because I saw powerflashes of north I-40 & I-44 on a ODOT camera.

[Chinook]

5 hours ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

Got a 90 sigtor ingredient contour for tomorrow. The question will be if a supercell can develop and stay ahead of the maturing MCS long enough to really get going.

 

Tomorrow looks like the first relatively strongly unstable MCS day

 

I don't know which section of the enhanced risk might be favored more for any type of severe weather report. It is obviously kind of hard to track some of this stuff late at night, but I think the severe weather may be there in late hours, even for me, in Mountain time. The MCS looks like it going to be pretty organized by the wind fields, as some modest 1300 J/kg may be the realistic CAPE value keeping it going at nighttime.

[ClicheVortex2014]

32 minutes ago, Chinook said:

I don't know which section of the enhanced risk might be favored more for any type of severe weather report. It is obviously kind of hard to track some of this stuff late at night, but I think the severe weather may be there in late hours, even for me, in Mountain time. The MCS looks like it going to be pretty organized by the wind fields, as some modest 1300 J/kg may be the realistic CAPE value keeping it going at nighttime.

I'd have to go with S AR/N LA/S MS/SW AL. Mature MCS with the possibility for supercells to pop ahead of it.

Edited April 4, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ElectricStorm]

Amazing lightning show here tonight in Norman, one of the better ones I've seen recently. Getting a good amount of much needed rain to help with the drought. Always great to see on a marginal risk day. Had a few severe warnings west of here but none for the immediate area, but a few of these non-severe storms are packing a decent punch. 

[ClicheVortex2014]

1 hour ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

I'd have to go with S AR/N LA/S MS/SW AL. Mature MCS with the possibility for supercells to pop ahead of it.

I was too far east but not too far off

 

Should be an interesting evening. Starts out with dryline supercells capable of producing >2" hail before they grow into a MCS which increases the damaging wind threat and introduces a higher tornado threat. Tornado threat is overnight which is famously Not Good™

Edited April 4, 2022 by ClicheVortex2014

[ClicheVortex2014]

36 minutes ago, ClicheVortex2014 said:

I was too far east but not too far off

 

Should be an interesting evening. Starts out with dryline supercells capable of producing >2" hail before they grow into a MCS which increases the damaging wind threat and introduces a higher tornado threat. Tornado threat is overnight which is famously Not Good™

Day 2 enhanced risk for damaging wind and tornadoes. Looks like a continuous stretch of enhanced risk from Dallas to the South Carolina coast.

[StormfanaticInd]

The south can't catch a break

[Iceresistance]

Got 1.8 inches of rain, I kinda did not expect that!

[Iceresistance]

The HRRR UD Helicity Swaths are suggesting Rotation even north of the front, even though that the tornado threat is 0 up there since they are completely undercut by the north winds.

[Iceresistance]

Good grief! The thunder from the storm that grazed me to the south is REALLY LOUD!

[ClicheVortex2014]

Back-to-back-to-back enhanced risks plus a bonus day 4 slight risk.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Small 10% tornado introduced for the early morning hours. 

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1127 AM CDT MON APR 04 2022  
  
VALID 041630Z - 051200Z  
  
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF  
NORTH TX ACROSS NORTHERN LA INTO SOUTHWEST MS...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START IN  
PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SHIFTING EASTWARD  
TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. SEVERE WIND GUSTS,  
SOME POSSIBLY OVER 74 MPH, LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, AND TORNADOES  
ARE POSSIBLE.  
   
..NORTHWEST/NORTH TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING  
  
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST TX IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY  
DEEPEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS AN ATTENDANT FRONT PUSHES  
SOUTHEASTWARD. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETURN AHEAD OF THE  
LOW/FRONT, LIKELY BRINGING MID 60S DEWPOINTS IN NORTH TX BY EARLY  
THIS EVENING. FORCING FOR ASCENT NEAR THE LOW WILL BE AUGMENTED BY  
LARGE-SCALE LIFT ATTENDANT TO APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH,  
FOSTERING CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS NORTHWEST TX THIS AFTERNOON.  
LOW-LEVEL TO MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY STRONG,  
BUT NOTABLE VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL FLOW RESULTS  
IN OVERALL PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE LINEAR  
FORCING AND THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS FAVORING STRONG COLD POOLS, A  
QUICK TRANSITION INTO A CONVECTIVE LINE IS ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER,  
THERE SHOULD BE A WINDOW BEFORE THIS OCCURS FOR A MORE DISCRETE  
MODE, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE  
HAZARDS, INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO.    
  
...NORTH/NORTHEAST/EAST TX ACROSS LA INTO SOUTHERN MS THIS EVENING  
AND OVERNIGHT...  
THE INITIALLY MORE DISCRETE MODE EXPECTED OVER NORTHWEST TX  
(DISCUSSED ABOVE) SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION INTO AN ORGANIZED  
CONVECTIVE LINE AS BOTH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW  
INCREASE AHEAD OF IT THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL BE RETREATING  
AHEAD OF THE LINE (DEMARCATED RELATIVELY WELL BY THE 60 DEG F  
ISODROSOTHERM), AND A CORRIDOR OF GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL IS  
ANTICIPATED ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE. THE LINEAR  
CONVECTIVE MODE/STRONG COLD POOL, COUPLED WITH CONTINUED LARGE-SCALE  
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND EXPECTED UPDRAFT/DOWNDRAFT AUGMENTATION NEAR  
THE WARM FRONT, SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND GUSTS  
(I.E. 74+ MPH) EXISTS WITH THIS LINE.   
  
THE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED QLCS TORNADOES ALSO EXISTS, PARTICULARLY  
LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN LA AND SOUTHWEST  
MS. THE CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD REMAIN ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES INTO  
THIS REGION, AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN. THESE  
FACTORS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGEST THE  
POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED QLCS TORNADOES MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE  
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FROM NORTHERN LA INTO  
SOUTHWESTERN MS.  

 

[Iceresistance]

Severe T-Storm warning in place near Ardmore

[TLChip]

Texas looks to stay busy into the night.

[Iceresistance]

22 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Severe T-Storm warning in place near Ardmore

It's now warned for Golf Ball Sized Hail, my goodness

[ElectricStorm]

Ok I see how it is 

[Iceresistance]

6 minutes ago, OKwx_2001 said:

Ok I see how it is 

Heading my way, it also contains a LOT of Lightning

[Iceresistance]

21 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Heading my way, it also contains a LOT of Lightning

And it weakened before it got here & it's now heading east