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April 2-5, 2024 | NE/Mid-Atl "Springter" Nor'Easter


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  • The title was changed to April 2-5, 2024 | NE/Mid-Atl "Springter" Storm Speculation

Norton has taken notice as well:

Very strong agreement between the three
global "heavy hitters" (GFS, ECMWF, and CMC) regarding the
development of a strong coastal low Wednesday into Thursday. With
anomolously cold upper level temps, 850mb temps as cold as -9C,
there are early indications that we could see a bit of a blast of
late season snowfall across portions of southern New England, with a
mix or rain closer to the coastline. Given this system is still ~ 5
to 6 days out, relied heavily on probabilities to derive the chance
for snow, but the GEFS, Euro, and NBM probabilities highlight a 30
to as high as 80% chance of (10:1) 3" of snow and as high as a 30%
chance of a foot of snow across the high terrain of central and
western MA! Of course, snow potential will be highly track
dependent, and we expect that these probabilities will shift over the
coming days as confidence grows in both the strength and placement
of the low.


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I remember it well - we got 30" from that. 2 days later we left for a week in California and when we returned it was all gone.

Looks eerily similar but the theme of this winter has been too much warm with most of the storms - we shall see.

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00Z operational models and ensemble solutions remain in relatively
good agreement indicating an area of low pressure will slowly move
over the Eastern Great Lakes region by Tuesday night. Meanwhile,
plenty of cold air to the north and the approach large upper level
low pressure system will allow for the development of a secondary
area of low pressure to develop off the Mid Atlantic coastline. This
system has the potential to intensify and move slowly up and off the
New England coastline Wednesday through Wednesday night. By
Thursday, this system has the potential to become fully captured by
the upper level low as it slowly forms a loop in the Gulf of Maine.
Have gone a couple degrees below most available model guidance in
terms of temperatures for this system.

There is still uncertainty for this track at this long range in the
forecast. Complex interactions with short waves in the northern
stream over Canada early next week may very well yield differing
scenarios moving forward. However, considering the cold air in place
and recent cooler trends in the models solutions, accumulating snow
remains a possibility at this point for much of the forecast area
midweek next week. There is also some model to model
inconsistency as well as to how far off the coast the system
potentially tracks with the Canadian Model for the time being,
the furthest south and east with the track of the storm.


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Coastal areas have taken an absolute beating all winter, they don't need several days of winds blowing onshore. Tides won't be at their highest, astronomically speaking, but days of waves are gonna strip the sand. 

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41 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

We haven't had widespread power outages in over a week, so a heavy, wet snowfall makes sense.  😒

We have had two 2-day outages since November. Might as well make it three.

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  • The title was changed to April 2-5, 2024 | NE/Mid-Atl "Springter" Nor'Easter
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43 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

The "Blend".


Below I'd say 1,500-2,000ft and ratios could be half that, but 6-10" of heavy wet snow is still a major issue. 

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