Winter 2024-2025 | Discussion and Outlooks

[Arctic Outbreak]

Too soon? 

[SOMOSnow]

On 3/19/2024 at 3:08 PM, Arctic Outbreak said:

Too soon? 

Never too soon 

[Grace]

This coming LA Nina may make a run at the strongest LA Nina since 1973-74.

[SNOWBOB11]

2 hours ago, Grace said:

This coming LA Nina may make a run at the strongest LA Nina since 1973-74.

A strong nina and a -PDO might not be the best look for the east ☹️

[Grace]

On 3/28/2024 at 10:06 AM, SNOWBOB11 said:

A strong nina and a -PDO might not be the best look for the east ☹️

No doubt 🔥

That's my expectation. Anything not fire will be a massive plus. 

And severe weather for Spring of '25...go look up April 1974. 

Edited March 29, 2024 by Grace

[so_whats_happening]

I will only say this as an early thought but watch out with what happens with the -PDO over the next 2 months. Im not so certain we stay as negative going forward, if we do manage to get close to normal in terms of value it may not be as much of a influencer on the pattern as we have seen over the last couple years. I also am starting to question just how much the La Nina develops. I would expect almost a neutral or cold neutral stance to take shape by summer but after that im not so certain, this is impressive none the less. The thermocline is actually struggling a bit to break in the eastern Pacific which again is kind of surprising.

[Guest]

On 3/28/2024 at 8:20 AM, Grace said:

This coming LA Nina may make a run at the strongest LA Nina since 1973-74.

 

On 3/29/2024 at 1:15 PM, Grace said:

No doubt 🔥

That's my expectation. Anything not fire will be a massive plus. 

And severe weather for Spring of '25...go look up April 1974. 

Fire, torch? Looks nice for MBY 😍

[Guest]

11 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

I will only say this as an early thought but watch out with what happens with the -PDO over the next 2 months. Im not so certain we stay as negative going forward, if we do manage to get close to normal in terms of value it may not be as much of a influencer on the pattern as we have seen over the last couple years. I also am starting to question just how much the La Nina develops. I would expect almost a neutral or cold neutral stance to take shape by summer but after that im not so certain, this is impressive none the less. The thermocline is actually struggling a bit to break in the eastern Pacific which again is kind of surprising.

We'll know by September/October:

Why is it surprising the thermocline is struggling to break? Warm over cold is a stable condition that prevents mixing.

[so_whats_happening]

4 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

We'll know by September/October:

Why is it surprising the thermocline is struggling to break? Warm over cold is a stable condition that prevents mixing.

I get the stability aspect. Just had figured with an increase of trades across the region from MJO progression that this would disperse enough of the warmth and allow surfacing of the cooler waters but from the looks of it we really actually haven't had much in the way of anomalous trades from about 160W to the Peruvian coast so that would explain why things haven't broken yet. We shall see what comes from this more amplified MJO progression as we go into April and what effects it may have across the eastern Pacific.

To be fair looking back at the subsurface and SST composites for 82-83, 97-98, and 15-16 it did take until about May for things to finally break down. Maybe I was just rushing it in my head more so than what actual would produce.

[Arctic Outbreak]

Winter has kind of become one long, mild, dreary season lasting from November - April. There's really no difference in the weather between any of those months anymore. 

[StormfanaticInd]

If we do get a strong la nina next winter will most likely torch. There are a few rare exceptions though 

[TLChip]

On 3/28/2024 at 11:06 AM, SNOWBOB11 said:

A strong nina and a -PDO might not be the best look for the east ☹️

After a few rough years in the east it has to break sooner or later. Even with La Niña in 2021 we had an awesome February. 

I think the biggest thing is just getting out and enjoying the cold winter activities while we have them. Even if it’s a week here and there with the torch/warmth in between.

Northern New England has done well with snow in the spring the past couple years, and  I don’t mind the cooler temps before the summer time heat waves. 

We can’t control or predict the weather, just track it lol.  

[Grace]

The European Seasonal model is interesting. It has the LA Nina weakening in early fall.

July

 

October

[NEPAsnow]

Weak la Nina certainly better for snow in the east!

[TheComet]

On 4/8/2024 at 9:29 AM, Grace said:

The European Seasonal model is interesting. It has the LA Nina weakening in early fall.

July

 

October

That'd be sweet. It's been eons since I've seen a La Nada winter.

Edited July 18, 2024 by TheComet

[Guest]

Welp, I'm living in Fairbanks, Alaska now so I'm betting it'll be a cold and dark winter with persistent snow cover.

Hopefully temps and snowfall end up above normal ...

[Psu1313]

6 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

Welp, I'm living in Fairbanks, Alaska now so I'm betting it'll be a cold and dark winter with persistent snow cover.

Hopefully temps and snowfall end up above normal ...

Congrats...I guess! At least you won't have to be on a razor's edge as to whether you're going to get some snow. 🙂

[Guest]

58 minutes ago, Psu1313 said:

Congrats...I guess! At least you won't have to be on a razor's edge as to whether you're going to get some snow. 🙂

I already had that luxury in Marquette, but most of the ski hills open around Thanksgiving! That includes North America's farthest north chairlift.

[Psu1313]

Does Ski Land do night skiing? That would be an awesome experience taking a run under the northern lights. I imagine they don't have lights, but worth the question. 

[Guest]

13 hours ago, Psu1313 said:

Does Ski Land do night skiing? That would be an awesome experience taking a run under the northern lights. I imagine they don't have lights, but worth the question. 

I'm not sure about whether these places have lights, but there's so little daylight in the winter that I think they'll have to be open at night to stay in business. Skiing under the northern lights does sound pretty epic though!

[so_whats_happening]

23 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

Welp, I'm living in Fairbanks, Alaska now so I'm betting it'll be a cold and dark winter with persistent snow cover.

Hopefully temps and snowfall end up above normal ...

Congrats on getting the NWS job! I was tempted to apply to that one but was unsure how I felt about being in Alaska.

[Grace]

On 7/21/2024 at 10:04 AM, StLweatherjunkie said:

Welp, I'm living in Fairbanks, Alaska now so I'm betting it'll be a cold and dark winter with persistent snow cover.

Hopefully temps and snowfall end up above normal ...

Congrats man! That's awesome! 

[Grace]

 

[Guest]

On 7/22/2024 at 10:50 AM, Grace said:

 

Looks like trade winds have failed to strengthen with the cooler waters, but that may change during August.

From a historic perspective, only 1970-1976 and 2008-2012 had a multi year Nina events followed by a single year Nino then back to Nina without a neutral season. Overall it seems like neutral conditions are favored following amplified ENSO periods, but it'll be interesting to see if that's the case this time too.

 

[Grace]