Jump to content

Winter 2024-2025 | Discussion and Outlooks


Recommended Posts

  • 2 weeks later...
2 hours ago, Grace said:

This coming LA Nina may make a run at the strongest LA Nina since 1973-74.

A strong nina and a -PDO might not be the best look for the east ☹️

  • LIKE 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 3/28/2024 at 10:06 AM, SNOWBOB11 said:

A strong nina and a -PDO might not be the best look for the east ☹️

No doubt 🔥

That's my expectation. Anything not fire will be a massive plus. 

And severe weather for Spring of '25...go look up April 1974. 

Edited by Grace
  • LIKE 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Meteorologist

I will only say this as an early thought but watch out with what happens with the -PDO over the next 2 months. Im not so certain we stay as negative going forward, if we do manage to get close to normal in terms of value it may not be as much of a influencer on the pattern as we have seen over the last couple years. I also am starting to question just how much the La Nina develops. I would expect almost a neutral or cold neutral stance to take shape by summer but after that im not so certain, this is impressive none the less. The thermocline is actually struggling a bit to break in the eastern Pacific which again is kind of surprising.

TAO_5Day_EQ_xz.thumb.gif.c03e67addc0930d7b51a919365d671ae.gifTAO_5Day_EQ_xz(1).thumb.gif.bd884201333267441336cd718d1dbea8.gif

  • THUMBS UP 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 3/28/2024 at 8:20 AM, Grace said:

This coming LA Nina may make a run at the strongest LA Nina since 1973-74.

 

On 3/29/2024 at 1:15 PM, Grace said:

No doubt 🔥

That's my expectation. Anything not fire will be a massive plus. 

And severe weather for Spring of '25...go look up April 1974. 

Fire, torch? Looks nice for MBY 😍image.png.67d80c0f62cd2e741962c6bea7a89dda.png

  • LAUGH 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

I will only say this as an early thought but watch out with what happens with the -PDO over the next 2 months. Im not so certain we stay as negative going forward, if we do manage to get close to normal in terms of value it may not be as much of a influencer on the pattern as we have seen over the last couple years. I also am starting to question just how much the La Nina develops. I would expect almost a neutral or cold neutral stance to take shape by summer but after that im not so certain, this is impressive none the less. The thermocline is actually struggling a bit to break in the eastern Pacific which again is kind of surprising.

TAO_5Day_EQ_xz.thumb.gif.c03e67addc0930d7b51a919365d671ae.gifTAO_5Day_EQ_xz(1).thumb.gif.bd884201333267441336cd718d1dbea8.gif

We'll know by September/October:

image.thumb.png.8af2eef308208cc6c7d3d6a59b54632b.png

Why is it surprising the thermocline is struggling to break? Warm over cold is a stable condition that prevents mixing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Meteorologist
4 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

We'll know by September/October:

image.thumb.png.8af2eef308208cc6c7d3d6a59b54632b.png

Why is it surprising the thermocline is struggling to break? Warm over cold is a stable condition that prevents mixing.

I get the stability aspect. Just had figured with an increase of trades across the region from MJO progression that this would disperse enough of the warmth and allow surfacing of the cooler waters but from the looks of it we really actually haven't had much in the way of anomalous trades from about 160W to the Peruvian coast so that would explain why things haven't broken yet. We shall see what comes from this more amplified MJO progression as we go into April and what effects it may have across the eastern Pacific.

To be fair looking back at the subsurface and SST composites for 82-83, 97-98, and 15-16 it did take until about May for things to finally break down. Maybe I was just rushing it in my head more so than what actual would produce.

u.anom.90.5S-5N.gif

u.total.90.5S-5N.gif

  • LIKE 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 3/28/2024 at 11:06 AM, SNOWBOB11 said:

A strong nina and a -PDO might not be the best look for the east ☹️

After a few rough years in the east it has to break sooner or later. Even with La Niña in 2021 we had an awesome February. 

I think the biggest thing is just getting out and enjoying the cold winter activities while we have them. Even if it’s a week here and there with the torch/warmth in between.

Northern New England has done well with snow in the spring the past couple years, and  I don’t mind the cooler temps before the summer time heat waves. 

We can’t control or predict the weather, just track it lol.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...