Arctic Outbreak Posted March 19 Share Posted March 19 Too soon? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMOSnow Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 On 3/19/2024 at 3:08 PM, Arctic Outbreak said: Too soon? Never too soon 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 This coming LA Nina may make a run at the strongest LA Nina since 1973-74. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNOWBOB11 Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 2 hours ago, Grace said: This coming LA Nina may make a run at the strongest LA Nina since 1973-74. A strong nina and a -PDO might not be the best look for the east ☹️ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 (edited) On 3/28/2024 at 10:06 AM, SNOWBOB11 said: A strong nina and a -PDO might not be the best look for the east ☹️ No doubt 🔥 That's my expectation. Anything not fire will be a massive plus. And severe weather for Spring of '25...go look up April 1974. Edited March 29 by Grace 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 31 Meteorologist Share Posted March 31 I will only say this as an early thought but watch out with what happens with the -PDO over the next 2 months. Im not so certain we stay as negative going forward, if we do manage to get close to normal in terms of value it may not be as much of a influencer on the pattern as we have seen over the last couple years. I also am starting to question just how much the La Nina develops. I would expect almost a neutral or cold neutral stance to take shape by summer but after that im not so certain, this is impressive none the less. The thermocline is actually struggling a bit to break in the eastern Pacific which again is kind of surprising. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 On 3/28/2024 at 8:20 AM, Grace said: This coming LA Nina may make a run at the strongest LA Nina since 1973-74. On 3/29/2024 at 1:15 PM, Grace said: No doubt 🔥 That's my expectation. Anything not fire will be a massive plus. And severe weather for Spring of '25...go look up April 1974. Fire, torch? Looks nice for MBY 😍 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 11 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: I will only say this as an early thought but watch out with what happens with the -PDO over the next 2 months. Im not so certain we stay as negative going forward, if we do manage to get close to normal in terms of value it may not be as much of a influencer on the pattern as we have seen over the last couple years. I also am starting to question just how much the La Nina develops. I would expect almost a neutral or cold neutral stance to take shape by summer but after that im not so certain, this is impressive none the less. The thermocline is actually struggling a bit to break in the eastern Pacific which again is kind of surprising. We'll know by September/October: Why is it surprising the thermocline is struggling to break? Warm over cold is a stable condition that prevents mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted March 31 Meteorologist Share Posted March 31 4 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said: We'll know by September/October: Why is it surprising the thermocline is struggling to break? Warm over cold is a stable condition that prevents mixing. I get the stability aspect. Just had figured with an increase of trades across the region from MJO progression that this would disperse enough of the warmth and allow surfacing of the cooler waters but from the looks of it we really actually haven't had much in the way of anomalous trades from about 160W to the Peruvian coast so that would explain why things haven't broken yet. We shall see what comes from this more amplified MJO progression as we go into April and what effects it may have across the eastern Pacific. To be fair looking back at the subsurface and SST composites for 82-83, 97-98, and 15-16 it did take until about May for things to finally break down. Maybe I was just rushing it in my head more so than what actual would produce. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arctic Outbreak Posted April 5 Author Share Posted April 5 Winter has kind of become one long, mild, dreary season lasting from November - April. There's really no difference in the weather between any of those months anymore. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted April 6 Share Posted April 6 If we do get a strong la nina next winter will most likely torch. There are a few rare exceptions though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 On 3/28/2024 at 11:06 AM, SNOWBOB11 said: A strong nina and a -PDO might not be the best look for the east ☹️ After a few rough years in the east it has to break sooner or later. Even with La Niña in 2021 we had an awesome February. I think the biggest thing is just getting out and enjoying the cold winter activities while we have them. Even if it’s a week here and there with the torch/warmth in between. Northern New England has done well with snow in the spring the past couple years, and I don’t mind the cooler temps before the summer time heat waves. We can’t control or predict the weather, just track it lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 The European Seasonal model is interesting. It has the LA Nina weakening in early fall. July October 2 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted May 8 Share Posted May 8 Weak la Nina certainly better for snow in the east! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheComet Posted May 21 Share Posted May 21 (edited) On 4/8/2024 at 9:29 AM, Grace said: The European Seasonal model is interesting. It has the LA Nina weakening in early fall. July October That'd be sweet. It's been eons since I've seen a La Nada winter. Edited July 18 by TheComet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted Sunday at 03:04 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:04 PM Welp, I'm living in Fairbanks, Alaska now so I'm betting it'll be a cold and dark winter with persistent snow cover. Hopefully temps and snowfall end up above normal ... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted Sunday at 09:30 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:30 PM 6 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said: Welp, I'm living in Fairbanks, Alaska now so I'm betting it'll be a cold and dark winter with persistent snow cover. Hopefully temps and snowfall end up above normal ... Congrats...I guess! At least you won't have to be on a razor's edge as to whether you're going to get some snow. 🙂 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted Sunday at 10:30 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:30 PM 58 minutes ago, Psu1313 said: Congrats...I guess! At least you won't have to be on a razor's edge as to whether you're going to get some snow. 🙂 I already had that luxury in Marquette, but most of the ski hills open around Thanksgiving! That includes North America's farthest north chairlift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psu1313 Posted Sunday at 11:42 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:42 PM Does Ski Land do night skiing? That would be an awesome experience taking a run under the northern lights. I imagine they don't have lights, but worth the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLweatherjunkie Posted Monday at 01:22 PM Share Posted Monday at 01:22 PM 13 hours ago, Psu1313 said: Does Ski Land do night skiing? That would be an awesome experience taking a run under the northern lights. I imagine they don't have lights, but worth the question. I'm not sure about whether these places have lights, but there's so little daylight in the winter that I think they'll have to be open at night to stay in business. Skiing under the northern lights does sound pretty epic though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteorologist so_whats_happening Posted Monday at 02:28 PM Meteorologist Share Posted Monday at 02:28 PM 23 hours ago, StLweatherjunkie said: Welp, I'm living in Fairbanks, Alaska now so I'm betting it'll be a cold and dark winter with persistent snow cover. Hopefully temps and snowfall end up above normal ... Congrats on getting the NWS job! I was tempted to apply to that one but was unsure how I felt about being in Alaska. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted Monday at 06:50 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:50 PM On 7/21/2024 at 10:04 AM, StLweatherjunkie said: Welp, I'm living in Fairbanks, Alaska now so I'm betting it'll be a cold and dark winter with persistent snow cover. Hopefully temps and snowfall end up above normal ... Congrats man! That's awesome! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grace Posted Monday at 06:50 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:50 PM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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