February 28-29 2024 | Rain to Snow event/Flash Freeze/Wind

[Snowadelphia]

I'm here for one more ride... who will join me? GFS and Euro showing something at this point. Could be a cutter with some FROPA snow after.

 

Edited February 27 by StretchCT

[Snowadelphia]

Positive tilt to the trough right now.

 

[clm]

Just now, Snowadelphia said:

Positive tilt to the trough right now.

 

 

Very very iffy.  Will need a push of cold air from the north.

 

[Snowadelphia]

Goes negative at 228 - would be a good hit for Downeast Maine and the Maritimes.

 

Edited February 21 by Snowadelphia

[StretchCT]

Ahhh, just checking in to see if anyone bit at this one!

These aren't that far off.  Leading up to this there are some differences though. 

Never a fan of post frontal precip. 

[TLChip]

Plenty of time for this to be a better shot.

Honestly haven’t paid attention to the models after the last 2 storms with huge wobbles(under 48-72 hours), one heavy south trend one heavy north trend, this winter we just can’t seem to get a grasp on anything. 
 

Sitting at the DMV, anyone got teles for this time frame? My shot at 22nd threat w/ teles looking good a week out went down in flames. 

[StretchCT]

21 minutes ago, TLChip said:

Plenty of time for this to be a better shot.

Honestly haven’t paid attention to the models after the last 2 storms with huge wobbles(under 48-72 hours), one heavy south trend one heavy north trend, this winter we just can’t seem to get a grasp on anything. 
 

Sitting at the DMV, anyone got teles for this time frame? My shot at 22nd threat w/ teles looking good a week out went down in flames. 

Gee the NAO didn't perform as expected did it.  Neither did the AO.  These are crap except if you want mud.

[TLChip]

9 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Gee the NAO didn't perform as expected did it.  Neither did the AO.  These are crap except if you want mud.

Wow! I remember the AO was supposed to tank, near record too(for the 22nd threat)…. Yup mud city round these parts. 

[ionizer]

roll the dice one more time......... pappa needs a new pair shoes

[clm]

33 minutes ago, ionizer said:

roll the dice one more time......... pappa needs a new pair shoes

[StretchCT]

Does the GFS follow the Euro?  Sometimes... wake and bake did.

0z GFS

0z Euro

6z GFS - could only be a little more different than 6hrs previous.

 

[Wtkidz]

06Z GFS 

 

 

[Wtkidz]

00z EURO

[StretchCT]

Weird look.  Guessing snow squalls

0z run

 

Euro

[MaineJay]

3 hours ago, StretchCT said:

Weird look.  Guessing snow squalls

0z run

 

Euro

Almost has an NW wind upslope look

[clm]

2 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Almost has an NW wind upslope look

Someone clearly does NOT know how to color and stay inside the lines.

[Undertakerson2.0]

AFDCTP:

 A brief lull in shower activity is likely Tuesday night before a strong frontal
system approaches the area on Wednesday. Widespread gusty
showers and even thunder appear to be a strong bet with this
midweek system, as a deep storm lifts northeast into the western
Great Lakes. Dewpoints surge into the lower 50s ahead of the
front, but with best shear to the north the chances for severe
appear limited at this time.

Sharp transition colder Wednesday night with gusty winds and
potential for precip to change from rain to snow on backside of
strong frontal system. There is some risk for winter wx and
gusts near advisory criteria.

 

Thunder snow - the first time I ever witnessed it was in a similar set up one late winter day circa 1973 when, while out hiking in the rain - the lightning flashed and thunder roared and the rain turned to heavy wet snow.

Edited February 26 by Undertakerson2.0

[Undertakerson2.0]

AFDCTP:

A round of gusty showers with embedded thunder is expected with
the passage of a sharp cold front on Wednesday. Strong forcing
and pwats 2-3SD above climo supports 90-100 PoPs Wednesday.
However, widespread cloud cover and limited model CAPE
currently points to a low threat of severe weather. Ensemble
plumes and multi-model blends still indicate rainfall totals of
0.5-1.5 inches from 12Z Tue to 00Z Thu.

Widespread non-convective strong winds are likely along and
behind the cold front Wednesday PM. Bufkit soundings and plumes
indicate the potential of 40kt+ gusts, signaling an increasing
probability for a wind advisory.

As colder air rushes in behind the front Wed eve/night,
lingering rain could change over to a period of snow for many
locations. We will also have to monitor the potential for a
flash freeze, with temperatures expected to plummet from NW to
SE in the wake of the strong frontal passage.

[Lazman]

1 hour ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

AFDCTP:

A round of gusty showers with embedded thunder is expected with
the passage of a sharp cold front on Wednesday. Strong forcing
and pwats 2-3SD above climo supports 90-100 PoPs Wednesday.
However, widespread cloud cover and limited model CAPE
currently points to a low threat of severe weather. Ensemble
plumes and multi-model blends still indicate rainfall totals of
0.5-1.5 inches from 12Z Tue to 00Z Thu.

Widespread non-convective strong winds are likely along and
behind the cold front Wednesday PM. Bufkit soundings and plumes
indicate the potential of 40kt+ gusts, signaling an increasing
probability for a wind advisory.

As colder air rushes in behind the front Wed eve/night,
lingering rain could change over to a period of snow for many
locations. We will also have to monitor the potential for a
flash freeze, with temperatures expected to plummet from NW to
SE in the wake of the strong frontal passage.

Thanks for the update. I think many people will be surprised when waking up on Thursday morning to a mess of power outages and traffic issues, due to the wind and flash freeze. 

[StretchCT]

I added wind to the title as the NAM is showing crazy gusts over LI/SNE/SNJ.  Eversource just sent the warning text out.  It's been a while since the gennie has been run too. 

Gusts start tonight before midnight

Even go to 50mph interior CT as they become widespread

Peak with mid 60s over LI, along NJ shore and SNE and the Islands.

 

[StretchCT]

Some max gust forecasts from NAM, GFS, Euro.  Keep in mind these are kts, prior post was in MPH

[StretchCT]

Wind Advisory out for most of us, High Wind Watch for others.

[Wtkidz]

Of course no weather to  be concerned in my neck of the wood.

Fredericksburg , Va the most dull weather in 2024..  and I like it that way. 

[StretchCT]

Local AFD for NYC area.

Spoiler

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Deep layer SW flow will dominate Wednesday as the area remains
entirely warm sectored. Periods of rain showers are expected, some
of which may be locally moderate to heavy, especially as the
forcing maximizes ahead of the cold frontal passage Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Highs on Wednesday will be in the middle
50s to low 60s. Overall, around 1 to 1.5 inches of rain is expected
for much of the area, with the highest amounts to the north and east.

One of the biggest impactful aspects of this system is the
potential for strong wind gusts. There will be two separate
opportunities to see advisory level winds in the area over the next
24 to 36 hours.  The first is with the mixing down of any winds from
the LLJ ahead of the cold front during much of the day on Wednesday.
There will be a fairly strong inversion in place but with a LLJ
anywhere from 60-80kt near 925 mb, gusts near 40 kt will be
possible. However, it may be the case where the inversion is
strong enough and precipitation is weak enough to not mix down
much of this LLJ energy at all during the day on Wednesday.
Regardless, the potential for strong gusts exists, so a wind
advisory is in effect for the eastern portions of Long Island
and New London County in Southeastern Connecticut to see gusts
in excess of 45 mph in the southerly flow.

The second chance for advisory level wind gusts will be with and
immediately behind the cold frontal passage Wednesday evening and
into the overnight. Strong CAA will allow for a much deeper
mixed layer to bring down strong winds behind the cold front. This
will likely make the wind threat much more widespread than just the
eastern and coastal areas as previously described. As such, a wind
advisory for portions of the Lower Hudson Valley and western
Southern Connecticut are in effect. Winds may gust upwards of 40-50
mph with the cold frontal passage and for several hours afterwards
into the overnight period, gradually diminishing in strength toward
daybreak Thursday.

The cold frontal passage will be strong and very noticeable as a
rapid drop in temperatures is expected Wednesday evening.
Temperatures in the middle 50s Wednesday afternoon are expected to
drop into the 30s over a period of 2-3 hours. This rapid drop in
temperatures will be accompanied by the previously described strong
wind gusts which will make feel apparent temperatures much colder.
Temperatures will continue to drop through Wednesday night such that
lows will be in the middle 20s to lower 30s. Apparent temperatures
will be in the teens.

Precipitation will likely come to an end rather quickly behind the
frontal passage, but flakes mixing in on the back end of the
precipitation can`t be entirely ruled out for much of the area,
though no accumulation is expected. There should be enough of a
period of gusty conditions with little to no precipitation such that
much of the ground should dry out before temperatures drop below
freezing. So the potential for a flash freeze situation appears
limited at this time.

 

[SnowloverSid]

On 2/26/2024 at 3:48 AM, Undertakerson2.0 said:

AFDCTP:

 A brief lull in shower activity is likely Tuesday night before a strong frontal
system approaches the area on Wednesday. Widespread gusty
showers and even thunder appear to be a strong bet with this
midweek system, as a deep storm lifts northeast into the western
Great Lakes. Dewpoints surge into the lower 50s ahead of the
front, but with best shear to the north the chances for severe
appear limited at this time.

Sharp transition colder Wednesday night with gusty winds and
potential for precip to change from rain to snow on backside of
strong frontal system. There is some risk for winter wx and
gusts near advisory criteria.

 

Thunder snow - the first time I ever witnessed it was in a similar set up one late winter day circa 1973 when, while out hiking in the rain - the lightning flashed and thunder roared and the rain turned to heavy wet snow.

That thundersnow event may have occurred in early March 1972 ( when the temperature in our part of upstate NY plunged from 60-20 within hours. Or, it may have been around St. Patrick’s Day 1973, when the temperature plunged from the upper-60s to the upper-20s within a few hours. I will try to think of other possibilities.