Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 6 Social Media Crew Share Posted January 6 (edited) There are so many storms.. š Iāll work on a proper write-up this evening! Happy Tracking! š¤ Inspiration | 12z ECMWF (Hours 132-198)Ā 12z Ensemble SupportĀ | Members @Ā Hour 144Ā GEFS EPS CMCEĀ Spoiler 12z Operational Guidance | Surface & 500MBĀ GFSĀ ECMWF GDPS ICONĀ UKMET (500MB @ Hour 144)Ā Korean (500MB @ Hour 168)Ā GraphCast (AI)Ā 18z GFS (Surface + 500MB / Hours 126-198)Ā Teleconnections EPSĀ EPO AO NAO PNA GEFS EPO AO NAO PNA Organic Forecasting | BSR WPC Forecast | Day 7Ā Ā Edited January 13 by Penn State 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 6 Moderators Share Posted January 6 25 minutes ago, Penn State said: There are so many storms.. š Iāll work on a proper write-up this evening! Ā it's refreshing isn't it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organicforecasting Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 NOUS42 KNHC 061828 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0130 PM EST SAT 06 JANUARY 2024 SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z JANUARY 2024 WSPOD NUMBER.....23-037 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. 3. REMARK: THE TEAL 73 MISSION TASKED IN WSPOD 23-036 FOR THE 07/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME WILL FLY TODAY AS PLANNED. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 75 A. 08/0000Z B. AFXXX 05WSE IOP13 C. 07/1745Z D. 25 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY: 35.0N 155.0W, 35.0N 125.0W, 55.0N 125.0W, AND 55.0N 155.0W E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 07/2030Z TO 08/0230Z 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE. 3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT AND THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT MAY FLY TWO CONCURRENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSIONS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC FOR THE 10/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 7 Admin Share Posted January 7 Another storm that models are throwing out close to, if not, record low pressures for Michigan. Ā Looks like she modest transfer/triple point potential, maybe only enough to blunt the winds, but better than no chance. Ā 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 (edited) Quick 0z round-up .. well, 6z for GFS. edit.. i had 12z CMC.. updated to 0z Ā Edited January 7 by JDClapper 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathertop Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 (edited) The 0z GEM run looks good for snow, except for south of I-78, at this time. Should be a very interesting week ahead as the forecasted Ā cold bleeds east and each model tries to accurately put together the many pieces of the weather puzzle. Posted GEFS and GEPS 2m temp anomalies, also. Edited January 7 by Weathertop Changed description of area discussed to represent the whole discussion area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathertop Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 850 Anomalies for 18z on 1/13/24 for GFS vs GEFS AND GEM vs GEPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Today's the day we make encouraging shifts towards a snowier storm.Ā I feel it in my bones.Ā And if we don't... then I guess that's just arthritis setting in.Ā Ā š 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 7 Admin Share Posted January 7 Lots of options at the buffet. GEFS Ā Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris2333 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 hour ago, Weathertop said: The 0z GEM run looks good for snow, except for south of I-78, at this time. Should be a very interesting week ahead as the forecasted Ā cold bleeds east and each model tries to accurately put together the many pieces of the weather puzzle. Posted GEFS and GEPS 2m temp anomalies, also. Please donāt be rain for SNJ itās going to be water world after Tuesdays stormā¦ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Definitely.Ā 0z EPS has a very wide cone of uncertainty, expected a week out.Ā Currently favors a track to our west, but you know how it goes.Ā Subject to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris2333 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, JDClapper said: Definitely.Ā 0z EPS has a very wide cone of uncertainty, expected a week out.Ā Currently favors a track to our west, but you know how it goes.Ā Subject to change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 hours ago, Chris2333 said: The next 3 don't look good for us wanting snow in the MidAtl, could be major flooding, especially after the last 3 weeks of storms. Ā 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 7 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted January 7 18z ICON at hour 120 keeps the flame flickering.. sure looks like a Great Lakes track is most likely.Ā 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 8 Admin Share Posted January 8 We know the pattern supports deep lows.Ā Power crews are gonna be busy. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Undertakerson2.0 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 4 minutes ago, MaineJay said: We know the pattern supports deep lows.Ā Power crews are gonna be busy. Test fire both generators is first thing on today's "To Do" list 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 FWIW CFS during this timeframe 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted January 9 Moderators Share Posted January 9 Well its in the right direction. Would like more members favoring east. Even if it does transfer, its already pretty far north as well.Ā Maybe New England can be salvaged.Ā 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowloverSid Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 No one has posted in this thread in two hours. This means that the ninety percent chance of a you- know-what has just gone up to a 95 percent chance. If you are missing the late-November look, this system is sure to melt the last vestiges of this past weekendās snow. Numbingly predictable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 š„± Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 All this liquid qpf needs to stop, not looking forward to today's and Saturday's rain events. Ā 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wtkidz Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Sterlings wet wordsā¦ Quote LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The third in a series of impactful systems is set to move across the local area Friday afternoon into the weekend. Presently, the feature of interest is located near the Gulf of Alaska. Like the low pressure system earlier in the week, it too will take a similar path across the southwestern U.S. into the Southern Plains. With the parent surface low expected to track near Indiana into Michigan, it will be another warm frontal system. Ensemble surface low plots are in fairly good agreement with the track, accompanied by pressures falling into the 975-980 mb range. Given the overall strength of this system, expect another round of wintry precipitation for the mountains, increased flooding concerns, and the potential for strong to damaging winds. As the upper trough moves into the southwestern U.S., any notable model differences should become better resolved given entry into a greater wealth of observational datasets. As it currently stands, the period of hazardous weather should span the second half of Friday into portions of Saturday. What would last longer is any residual river flooding as well as the upslope snow showers along the Allegheny Front. Both may last through the entire weekend. Unlike previous systems, the air mass in the wake of this one should be much colder. This becomes more noticeable by Sunday into Monday as high temperatures fall into the 30s to low 40s, with 20s across the mountains. At night, low temperatures should be in the 20s for most, locally falling into the teens for those west of the Blue Ridge. The biggest question mark is will additional precipitation move into the region as cold air is in place. Numerous model solutions show progressive shortwaves racing through the area. Depending on access to moisture and degree of forcing aloft, some wintry component by re-emerge into the new work week. Ā Ā Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbrumberg Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 This pending system looks to be another multifaceted snow to rain event for this area Friday into Saturday. Ā From the NWS/B-N Office discussion related to this pending weather event: Spoiler * Another strong storm system with a multitude of impacts expected Friday Night into Saturday * Winds remain strong Sunday, with near to slightly below normal temperatures * Not as windy early next week. Lower risk for more precipitation, especially Tuesday. Much of this portion of the forecast will feature a broad mid level trough over the CONUS. Have moderate confidence in the forecast details through Saturday, which then falls to low confidence Sunday into Tuesday as the timing differences of certain features in the guidance suite become too large. At the surface, expecting yet another low pressure to move from the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes Friday into Saturday. This will leave southern New England on the warmer side of this system, setting the stage for more rainfall and possibly some gusty winds. While there are some similarities with the current storm Wednesday, the standardized anomalies are just a little smaller. Thus, thinking our region should see slightly lower rainfall and winds. That may not mean much if flooding persists into this weekend, as any additional rainfall would only exacerbate flooding. There does appear to be a window for some snow at the onset across portions of NW MA and the northern Worcester Hills. This should transition over to rainfall. Will need a better handle on temperatures to pinpoint this risk with confidence. Latest National Blend of Models probabilistic guidance is not as robust with winds across much of our region. Will still need to consider some wind headlines towards the coast, especially across the Cape and islands. Some risk also for the Worcester Hills and towards the Berkshires (40-60%). Will monitor this aspect closely over the coming days. This storm should depart into southeast Canada by Sunday morning. However, gusty winds should linger through much of the day. Southern New England looks to remain in between a pair of high pressures: one over the North Atlantic, and the other towards the Rockies. Currently thinking Monday is likely drier than Tuesday. Most of the latest guidance suite has a low pressure along the SE coast of the USA. This does not look to be overly potent, but enough to bring a risk for some showers. Have little confidence in the timing details of this low pressure at this time, as the spread in the mid level flow pattern is rather large. Ā Ā 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbrumberg Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Decent tracks for rainĀ š¢: Ā Ā 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LUCC Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 š Ā 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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