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January 12-13, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm


Penn State

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Posted (edited)

There are so many storms.. 😂 I’ll work on a proper write-up this evening!

Happy Tracking! 🤓

Inspiration | 12z ECMWF (Hours 132-198) 

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12z Ensemble Support | Members Hour 144 

GEFS

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EPS

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CMCE 

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Spoiler

12z Operational Guidance | Surface & 500MB 

GFS 

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ECMWF

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GDPS

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ICON 

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UKMET (500MB @ Hour 144) 

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Korean (500MB @ Hour 168) 

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GraphCast (AI) 

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18z GFS (Surface + 500MB / Hours 126-198) 

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Teleconnections

EPS 

EPO

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AO

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NAO

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PNA

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GEFS

EPO

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AO

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NAO

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PNA

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Organic Forecasting | BSR

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WPC Forecast | Day 7 

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Edited by Penn State
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25 minutes ago, Penn State said:

There are so many storms.. 😂 I’ll work on a proper write-up this evening!

 

it's refreshing isn't it

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NOUS42 KNHC 061828
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0130 PM EST SAT 06 JANUARY 2024
SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
         VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z JANUARY 2024
         WSPOD NUMBER.....23-037

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
    3. REMARK: THE TEAL 73 MISSION TASKED IN WSPOD 23-036 FOR THE
       07/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME WILL FLY TODAY AS PLANNED.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 75
       A. 08/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 05WSE IOP13
       C. 07/1745Z
       D. 25 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY:
          35.0N 155.0W, 35.0N 125.0W, 55.0N 125.0W, AND 55.0N 155.0W
       E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 07/2030Z TO 08/0230Z

    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
    3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT AND
       THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT MAY FLY TWO CONCURRENT ATMOSPHERIC
       RIVERS MISSIONS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC FOR THE
       10/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.
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Another storm that models are throwing out close to, if not, record low pressures for Michigan.

 Looks like she modest transfer/triple point potential, maybe only enough to blunt the winds, but better than no chance.

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The 0z GEM run looks good for snow, except for south of I-78, at this time. Should be a very interesting week ahead as the forecasted  cold bleeds east and each model tries to accurately put together the many pieces of the weather puzzle. Posted GEFS and GEPS 2m temp anomalies, also.

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Edited by Weathertop
Changed description of area discussed to represent the whole discussion area.
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Today's the day we make encouraging shifts towards a snowier storm.  I feel it in my bones.  And if we don't... then I guess that's just arthritis setting in.  😐

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1 hour ago, Weathertop said:

The 0z GEM run looks good for snow, except for south of I-78, at this time. Should be a very interesting week ahead as the forecasted  cold bleeds east and each model tries to accurately put together the many pieces of the weather puzzle. Posted GEFS and GEPS 2m temp anomalies, also.

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Please don’t be rain for SNJ it’s going to be water world after Tuesdays storm…

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Definitely.  0z EPS has a very wide cone of uncertainty, expected a week out.  Currently favors a track to our west, but you know how it goes.  Subject to change.

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Just now, JDClapper said:

Definitely.  0z EPS has a very wide cone of uncertainty, expected a week out.  Currently favors a track to our west, but you know how it goes.  Subject to change.

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2 hours ago, Chris2333 said:

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The next 3 don't look good for us wanting snow in the MidAtl, could be major flooding, especially after the last 3 weeks of storms.

 

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Well its in the right direction. Would like more members favoring east. Even if it does transfer, its already pretty far north as well.  Maybe New England can be salvaged. 

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No one has posted in this thread in two hours. This means that the ninety percent chance of a you- know-what has just gone up to a 95 percent chance. If you are missing the late-November look, this system is sure to melt the last vestiges of this past weekend’s snow. Numbingly predictable.

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Sterlings wet words…

Quote
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The third in a series of impactful systems is set to move across the
local area Friday afternoon into the weekend. Presently, the feature
of interest is located near the Gulf of Alaska. Like the low
pressure system earlier in the week, it too will take a similar path
across the southwestern U.S. into the Southern Plains. With the
parent surface low expected to track near Indiana into Michigan, it
will be another warm frontal system. Ensemble surface low plots are
in fairly good agreement with the track, accompanied by pressures
falling into the 975-980 mb range. Given the overall strength of
this system, expect another round of wintry precipitation for the
mountains, increased flooding concerns, and the potential for strong
to damaging winds.

As the upper trough moves into the southwestern U.S., any notable
model differences should become better resolved given entry into a
greater wealth of observational datasets. As it currently stands,
the period of hazardous weather should span the second half of
Friday into portions of Saturday. What would last longer is any
residual river flooding as well as the upslope snow showers along
the Allegheny Front. Both may last through the entire weekend.

Unlike previous systems, the air mass in the wake of this one should
be much colder. This becomes more noticeable by Sunday into Monday
as high temperatures fall into the 30s to low 40s, with 20s across
the mountains. At night, low temperatures should be in the 20s for
most, locally falling into the teens for those west of the Blue
Ridge. The biggest question mark is will additional precipitation
move into the region as cold air is in place. Numerous model
solutions show progressive shortwaves racing through the area.
Depending on access to moisture and degree of forcing aloft, some
wintry component by re-emerge into the new work week.

 

 

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This pending system looks to be another multifaceted snow to rain event for this area Friday into Saturday.  From the NWS/B-N Office discussion related to this pending weather event:

Spoiler
* Another strong storm system with a multitude of impacts
  expected Friday Night into Saturday

* Winds remain strong Sunday, with near to slightly below normal
  temperatures

* Not as windy early next week. Lower risk for more precipitation,
  especially Tuesday.

Much of this portion of the forecast will feature a broad mid
level trough over the CONUS. Have moderate confidence in the
forecast details through Saturday, which then falls to low
confidence Sunday into Tuesday as the timing differences of
certain features in the guidance suite become too large.

At the surface, expecting yet another low pressure to move from
the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes Friday into Saturday. This
will leave southern New England on the warmer side of this
system, setting the stage for more rainfall and possibly some
gusty winds. While there are some similarities with the current
storm Wednesday, the standardized anomalies are just a little
smaller. Thus, thinking our region should see slightly lower
rainfall and winds. That may not mean much if flooding persists
into this weekend, as any additional rainfall would only
exacerbate flooding.

There does appear to be a window for some snow at the onset
across portions of NW MA and the northern Worcester Hills. This
should transition over to rainfall. Will need a better handle
on temperatures to pinpoint this risk with confidence.

Latest National Blend of Models probabilistic guidance is not as
robust with winds across much of our region. Will still need to
consider some wind headlines towards the coast, especially
across the Cape and islands. Some risk also for the Worcester
Hills and towards the Berkshires (40-60%). Will monitor this
aspect closely over the coming days.

This storm should depart into southeast Canada by Sunday
morning. However, gusty winds should linger through much of the
day. Southern New England looks to remain in between a pair of
high pressures: one over the North Atlantic, and the other
towards the Rockies. Currently thinking Monday is likely drier
than Tuesday. Most of the latest guidance suite has a low
pressure along the SE coast of the USA. This does not look to be
overly potent, but enough to bring a risk for some showers. Have
little confidence in the timing details of this low pressure at
this time, as the spread in the mid level flow pattern is
rather large.

 

 

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