Jan. 15-17th, 2024 | NE/MidAtl Winter Storm

[MaineJay]

Short and sweet, as I don't have a ton of time. I'm sure @Penn State has eyes on this.

-NAO

-EPO

Hudson Bay vortex.

Done need surface or precip maps for a few days, but feel free to indulge.

[Penn State]

Oh.. I definitely thought about it lol 😂 ..There were a couple epic runs of the GFS, and there's definitely some ensemble support. The hope.. at least for the east.. is that the PNA can turn more positive and that we can get the required blocking to push this more SE. The ECMWF shows that possibility of a more positive PNA turn.. and I included that nice run of the GFS from a few days ago. Hope it hits, but should be fun to track regardless! 

Edited January 4 by Penn State

[bigben89]

Starting to look promising. Lets hope!

[StretchCT]

This place lit up fast

[Undertakerson2.0]

I kinda like this one for a "white sided" outcome above 40N. 

We are in the pattern of weekly storms and since we're in the deep winter, chances increase of most of them being more white than wet. 

[Penn State]

So.. I was looking at the 12z guidance. I would consider opening a thread for the 12th-14th.. but I don't want to overlap with this either. Are we thinking what is shown on the 13th is this threat? There's so many storms it's mind boggling lol

[Undertakerson2.0]

Still liking this time period. Models monkey with the timing and exact track as we can expect in an active pattern - spoons and levers digging and ejecting various longwaves. Still kind of in thread the needle mode until true Arctic visits near the end of week 2 

[so_whats_happening]

Timing will always be moved around but what a beautiful storm on the CMC.

[Rush]

18 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Timing will always be moved around but what a beautiful storm on the CMC.

CMC was pretty locked in on this current event.  

[Organicforecasting]

On 1/4/2024 at 6:31 AM, Penn State said:

Oh.. I definitely thought about it lol 😂 ..There were a couple epic runs of the GFS, and there's definitely some ensemble support. The hope.. at least for the east.. is that the PNA can turn more positive and that we can get the required blocking to push this more SE. The ECMWF shows that possibility of a more positive PNA turn.. and I included that nice run of the GFS from a few days ago. Hope it hits, but should be fun to track regardless! 

Two rules of thumb for the tellies...

 

1. When the long range forecast is low, the verification is high. When the LRF is high, the verification is low.

2. Transition periods of the tellies is when things go boom!

[JDClapper]

From an EPS perspective, there's a little support something white is looming next weekend.  Looks like 20-30% members have the potential for interior PA.  I know every storm is different, but if this were to act similar in models latching on like this weekend's, we may see an interesting turn tonight and especially 12z Sunday.  It's a stretch, just thinking out loud.  🙂 

[Undertakerson2.0]

Euro looks just like today 😉

 

[MaineJay]

On 1/5/2024 at 11:39 AM, Penn State said:

So.. I was looking at the 12z guidance. I would consider opening a thread for the 12th-14th.. but I don't want to overlap with this either. Are we thinking what is shown on the 13th is this threat? There's so many storms it's mind boggling lol

No, I think starting a new thread preceding this time is a good idea. I'll slide the lead date forward on this.

[Rickrd]

This would be good

[dominio]

Off topic sorta of....i apologize but i figure if anyone who could relate it would be this forum....Ahh living on LI....luckily for me my wife loves snow as much as I.  Thinking of retiring to VT or NH in a couple years.  Not warm weather folks.  Any thoughts on good areas.

Edited January 7 by dominio

[Organicforecasting]

Might have to look deeper into the Central Pacific option...

 

NOUS42 KNHC 061828
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0130 PM EST SAT 06 JANUARY 2024
SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
         VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z JANUARY 2024
         WSPOD NUMBER.....23-037

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
    3. REMARK: THE TEAL 73 MISSION TASKED IN WSPOD 23-036 FOR THE
       07/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME WILL FLY TODAY AS PLANNED.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 75
       A. 08/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 05WSE IOP13
       C. 07/1745Z
       D. 25 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY:
          35.0N 155.0W, 35.0N 125.0W, 55.0N 125.0W, AND 55.0N 155.0W
       E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 07/2030Z TO 08/0230Z

    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
    3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT AND
       THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT MAY FLY TWO CONCURRENT ATMOSPHERIC
       RIVERS MISSIONS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC FOR THE
       10/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.

[MaineJay]

31 minutes ago, dominio said:

Off topic sorta of....i apologize but i figure if anyone who could relate it would be this forum....Ahh living on LI....luckily for me my wife loves snow as much as I.  Thinking of retiring to VT or NH in a couple years.  Not warm weather folks.  Any thoughts on good areas.

Rural?  How close to a major shopping center? Winter sports enthusiasts?  @telejunkie went from L.I. to VT if I'm not losing my mind.  I don't know Vermont very well, I know NH a bit.

[MaineJay]

GYX

Quote

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Overview: Low pressure will exit to our east on Sunday night before
high pressure builds in for Monday through Tuesday. This will then
be followed by a storm system that will bring multiple impacts to
the region Tuesday night into Wednesday including heavy
precipitation in the form of rain and mountain snow, strong to
potentially damaging winds (especially along the coast), and coastal
flooding. Conditions look to improve Wednesday night as high
pressure returns through the end of the week. Another storm system
may impact the region sometime next weekend as the NAO remains in a
negative phase.

Impacts: A potent storm system will impact the region Tuesday night
into Wednesday with multiple possible hazards including heavy
precipitation in the form of rain and mountain snow, strong to
locally damaging winds, and coastal flooding.

Forecast Details: Surface high pressure and upper level ridging will
allow for tranquil weather conditions and seasonably cool
temperatures for Monday and Tuesday. During this timeframe a deep
upper level trough axis will be exiting the Rockies as a deepening
area of low pressure tracks from the Mississippi River Valley
towards the Northeast. In doing so, latest guidance indicates
it will tap into sub-tropical moisture as long southerly flow
develops, helping to push precipitable water values up to +3
standard deviations above normal. One of the main question marks
continues to be the location and timing of when the original low
becomes occluded to our west and how strong the new coastal low
pressure system becomes.

Latest ensemble and deterministic based guidance continues to
suggest that the original low will remain the dominant system
as it becomes occluded and takes an interior track. This would
favor a brief period of wintry precipitation to much of the
region due to pre-existing cold air before increasing WAA pushes
a rain/snow line northward into Wednesday. Current guidance
suggests that both h850 and h925 temperatures will warm to well
above 0C, which would even allow the highest elevations to
transition into a period of rain, thereby cutting down on
potential snowfall amounts. Despite this, a moderate snowfall is
possible across the interior/foothills before the transition to
rain with higher amounts across the mountains. The combination
of strong forcing and a plethora of moisture suggests that a
period of heavy rainfall is possible for most areas, which
combined with melting snow and frozen ground could result in
flooding along with rises on area rivers and streams. Should the
secondary coastal low become stronger then colder air would
linger longer, resulting in a more prolonged period of wintry
precipitation and a lesser threat for flooding along with winds.

The other concern with this system is for the potential of strong to
locally damaging south to southeasterly winds, especially along the
coast. Boundary layer temperatures will play a vital role in
determining the strength of the winds as a strong LLJ moves along
the coastline and a strong PGF develops. Further inland mixing
is less certain as a CAD may linger and the LLJ may remain
further east, thereby greatly reducing the wind threat.
Temperatures look cooler with this system compared to the
December 18th storm and therefore the impacts from winds
currently looks to be more localized.

A third concern is for potential coastal flooding as strong onshore
flow may allow for enough wave runup and storm surge to cause
flooding despite relatively low astronomical tides. Beach
erosion is also likely to occur along with splash-over.

 

[telejunkie]

3 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Rural?  How close to a major shopping center? Winter sports enthusiasts?  @telejunkie went from L.I. to VT if I'm not losing my mind.  I don't know Vermont very well, I know NH a bit.

@dominio, I live in southern VT...outskirts of Manchester, VT. Feel free to message if you have some direct questions. Having grown up on LI, it's 100% different, but at the same time there are plenty of us around. If you're willlng to be "forceful" in your entry, you may be good, but just note that people can be very closed. All I can say is keep expectations tempered....it's an amazig place to be but many find to be suffocating

[thebigo]

5 hours ago, dominio said:

Off topic sorta of....i apologize but i figure if anyone who could relate it would be this forum....Ahh living on LI....luckily for me my wife loves snow as much as I.  Thinking of retiring to VT or NH in a couple years.  Not warm weather folks.  Any thoughts on good areas.

Have lived in nh my entire life. Currently live a couple towns in from portsmouth nh with a ski house in the NH lakes region.

Need a better idea of what you are looking for. How close do you need grocery stores, restaurants? You want land? Comfortable with well, septic, dirt roads and hauling your own trash? Also check out the tax situation. NH taxes vary heavily by town but there is no state tax on pensions, social security or 401K disbursements. 

[Undertakerson2.0]

 

 

[Undertakerson2.0]

^I don't even know if this portrayal is the storm even being discussed here - it's a nice overrunner at first and then bombs big time up into New England 

[MaineJay]

3 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

^I don't even know if this portrayal is the storm even being discussed here - it's a nice overrunner at first and then bombs big time up into New England 

I opened as a bit of a long range "stab" based upon ensemble means and how the teles were looking.  I never really tried to identify a particular shortwave, just that the pattern seemed to suggest a storm this period, so not surprised there are multiple opportunities. 

After the mid week cutter, we get the obligatory weekend storm (theme going back through fall an into the summer if I recall), which really fell before this time period, so @Penn Statecovered that threat.

  I'll try and stay on top of thread dates to keep confusion to a minimum. Storms every 3 days is fun, but can sure get messy with the discussions.  I'm try not to get too cute, as folks might not recognize that dates have changed, thinking it's a different thread.

 

[Undertakerson2.0]

1 minute ago, MaineJay said:

I opened as a bit of a long range "stab" based upon ensemble means and how the teles were looking.  I never really tried to identify a particular shortwave, just that the pattern seemed to suggest a storm this period, so not surprised there are multiple opportunities. 

After the mid week cutter, we get the obligatory weekend storm (theme going back through fall an into the summer if I recall), which really fell before this time period, so @Penn Statecovered that threat.

  I'll try and stay on top of thread dates to keep confusion to a minimum. Storms every 3 days is fun, but can sure get messy with the discussions.  I'm try not to get too cute, as folks might not recognize that dates have changed, thinking it's a different thread.

 

Yes - this rat-a-tat-tat pattern is confounding to keeping storms straight. For after the one I posted, (as you probably know) models suggest a Clipper that dives under PA and goes boom

And yes, the storm every weekend goes back at least into October last year. Surely is a "pattern" 

[JDClapper]

that's the thread for our obligatory weekend storm 🙂