January 6-7, 2024 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm

[Penn State]

In 1970.. Creedence Clearwater Revival released the album Pendulum; and later released “Have You Ever Seen the Rain” as a single in 1971. The lyrics from the first verse are, “Someone told me long ago.. there’s a calm before the storm.. I know, it’s been coming for some time”. Well folks.. I’ve seen the rain.. too much rain ☔️and I’m hopeful that this is indeed the calm before the storm that’s been coming for some time! 🧐Statistically.. in my SCPA backyard, it’s been a record 1,050+ days since our last snowfall of 4” or more. I know for some on this forum, the snow deficit is even greater. If you ask me.. It’s time for winter’s revenge! 

But.. in the form of some other famous lyrics, Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy? Caught in a landslide, no escape from reality. Open your eyes, look up to the skies and see… 🤔On X, some meteorologists and a chorus of weather enthusiasts are calling for a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SSWE). The cold air is coming! Storminess is coming! Pattern Change is upon us! …Well.. maybe. Call me jaded or call me experienced, but I’ll wait until I see it. 

In the last thread opener, I made mention of the January 8th-12th timeframe as being of interest. Others on the forum, such as @Grace have noted this period before me; however, it falls at the intersection of several important events. First, there’s a likelihood that the polar vortex will weaken, spilling cold air into North America. That’s ingredient #1. The subtropical jet remains active with our present El Niño.. and an enhanced MJO having circumnavigated into phase one helps here too. That’s ingredient #2. The timing.. as always.. is tricky. Can the northern and southern branches merge? Can we get a ridge out west? Will warm Pacific air crash the party? Blocking? I guess what I’m trying to say is that there’s no shortage of reasons as to why this won’t happen. However, there still exist storm signals.. which if some things can go our way, may lead us to the first moderate snowfall event for parts of southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic. EPS and CMCE ensembles are on board; however, the GEFS offers dissent.  Teleconnections appear to be heading in the right direction. By the time of this event, the AO and NAO look to be significantly negative. The PNA.. neutral. Organic forecasting you ask? Strong signal.. for just after this timeframe (And.. May I add.. that 18z showed a whopper 😳for mid-month, and I’m not so sure it’ll be a cutter, but that’s another topic for another day). WPC has our potential storm off the coast of California and Oregon at day #7. We’ll have to monitor their thinking and how it compares with ensemble runs over the next few days. 

Of course.. any time we approach this time of the year, comparisons are made to some of the more prestigious events of the past. Though the Blizzard of ‘16 was not an analog, a few days ago the Blizzard of ‘96 and the Blizzard of ‘83 were loosely connected on the CPC 8-14 day analog. I’ve included links to more information about each, and the CPC’s graphic is in the spoiler. I also included some historical MJOs to compare with this year, just to note the differences. The NESIS graphics are more or less eye candy to ponder what may lie ahead. Anyways.. I’m far from convinced that this timeframe will lead to anything historic; however, something moderate to break that 4” snowfall ceiling.. I think that’s possible. The big fish.. it’s out there. It’s just not on the hook to reel-in just yet. Second half of January.. when that MJO comes back around.. I like that better. But hey.. we have this now. Let’s get after it! 

Happy Tracking! 🤓 Happy New Year! 🥂

12z EPS | Members @ Hour 264

12z CMCE | Members @ Hour 264

12z GEFS | Members @ Hour 264

12z GFS | Deterministic (Hours 228-300) 

 

Spoiler

12z Ensembles | 500mb Anomaly (Hour 240) 
GEFS

EPS

CMCE

12z Deterministic | 500mb + Surface (Hour 240)

GFS

ECMWF

GDPS

Teleconnections 

MJO

AO (-) 

NAO (-)

PNA (+)

Organic Forecasting | BSR 

WPC Forecast | Day 7

CPC Analogs | Days 8-14 (January 2nd) 

Historical MJO + NESIS | Blizzard of ‘16

Historical MJO + NESIS | Blizzard of ‘96 

Historical MJO + NESIS | Blizzard of ‘83 

 

 

Edited January 7 by Penn State

[Penn State]

There doesn’t seem to be much northern stream interaction at 00z. Canadian may be cold enough for some, but.. GFS was undeniably warm. Quite a storm depicted for just after this timeframe for the Midwest. Something to keep an eye on as well. 

GFS

GDPS 

[ZLearned]

Got a nice winter hurricane on GFS. 939mb low?! Lol. 

Edited December 28, 2023 by ZLearned

[HVSNOWSTORM]

6z GFS 

[Penn State]

I do wonder.. Is there a chance that northern stream energy is a little quicker and the southern stream energy is a little slower? If those can connect.. may mean that the dates get pushed back a bit (which would actually align with the BSR).. but that would be something if those can connect earlier. 

[Penn State]

Well.. The CPC has arrived at this conclusion. That’s a positive. 

[Penn State]

18z GEFS.. When you look at the individual members, there’s like 2 clusters. There’s a cluster around the Carolinas, and another near the New Jersey coast. I’m not totally disappointed with this at the moment. 

[Pghsnow]

Spire Model

[Penn State]

Google’s GraphCast.. Not 100% sure what to make of it.. 

[Penn State]

Well..

 

[MaineJay]

Good slug trying to move out the GOMEX, can it make a love connection?

[HVSNOWSTORM]

Not a ton of cold for the coast. Inland can do decent if timed right with the N stream

[MaineJay]

Not sure what to think.

[HVSNOWSTORM]

51 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

Not sure what to think.

 

 

Models trying to figire out how much interaction in the streams for the system. Not ton of cold, looks like it's either a coastal scraper with mainly rain or stream interaction and snow off the coast inland possibly at the moment.

 

0z Euro control, 0z Euro OP, 6z GFS ENS all have a similar idea. A fairly narrow area of snow inland, wet at the coast. Lot of time for models to go to zero interaction of streams or more. Lot of options on the table but would lean scraper and little snow or some snow a little inland off the coast.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[HVSNOWSTORM]

2 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said:

 

 

Models trying to figire out how much interaction in the streams for the system. Not ton of cold, looks like it's either a coastal scraper with mainly rain or stream interaction and snow off the coast inland possibly at the moment.

 

0z Euro control, 0z Euro OP, 6z GFS ENS all have a similar idea. A fairly narrow area of snow inland, wet at the coast. Lot of time for models to go to zero interaction of streams or more. Lot of options on the table but would lean scraper and little snow or some snow a little inland off the coast.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oz Canadian shows the other side where the streams just miss and have very little snow and scrapes the coast.

[HVSNOWSTORM]

And actually the GFS also, with similar look. Might be best 7 day closeness, won't say agreement lol, we've had in a bit for a system that may produce some accumulating snow somewhere in our region.

[MaineJay]

19 minutes ago, HVSNOWSTORM said:

 

 

Models trying to figire out how much interaction in the streams for the system. Not ton of cold, looks like it's either a coastal scraper with mainly rain or stream interaction and snow off the coast inland possibly at the moment.

 

0z Euro control, 0z Euro OP, 6z GFS ENS all have a similar idea. A fairly narrow area of snow inland, wet at the coast. Lot of time for models to go to zero interaction of streams or more. Lot of options on the table but would lean scraper and little snow or some snow a little inland off the coast.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Have we had a passed system this season, one where the Northern stream was truly committed? We'd probably have to go back a ways, so the person betting with their head puts money on either a warm southern solution, or a weak northern system that boots the southern piece away until it phases inconsequentially over the Atlantic.

 The person betting with their heart bets that we are due.

  Kind of a persistence vs averaging out thing.

  Hard to believe we don't blind squirrel or way into something at some point.  

PWM looking at just 0.5" for December. The climo record involves varying locations, so impossible to put out into historical perspective, but it's undoubtedly in rare territory.

  I think folks around here are split. There are some missing winter sports, and all the things you can do with snow on the trails and ice on bodies of water, and some plow guys are probably bummed.  But, there's probably an equal number that don't want this train to stop.

Me? I'm indifferent.

[1816]

Nws blacksburg. mildly intriguing:

Overall drier weather returns with intermittent waves of energy
passing across the region. This pattern would support the
potential for low pressure development within the east, which
could spread moisture across the area. Model guidance hints at a
potential system later next week swinging up from the southern
stream. These can often be snow producers for us here in
southwest VA, so we will be keeping an eye on it. Certainly no
guarantees at this juncture.

[JDClapper]

3 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Not sure what to think.

Saw something nice down here in interior PA too. I'd estimate a 40-50% chance if measurable white, per 0z EPS for the 9/10 time frame.  See if 12z holds, backs away or ups the ante.

 

[JDClapper]

5 hours ago, JDClapper said:

Saw something nice down here in interior PA too. I'd estimate a 40-50% chance if measurable white, per 0z EPS for the 9/10 time frame.  See if 12z holds, backs away or ups the ante.

 

Looks like it backed off. I dunno, 25-30% maybe. Classic.

[Pghsnow]

[Pghsnow]

[JDClapper]

19 hours ago, JDClapper said:

Saw something nice down here in interior PA too. I'd estimate a 40-50% chance if measurable white, per 0z EPS for the 9/10 time frame.  See if 12z holds, backs away or ups the ante.

 

 

13 hours ago, JDClapper said:

Looks like it backed off. I dunno, 25-30% maybe. Classic.

And the latest 0z is back to pretty much a random few, nothing like 24 hours ago. Fun whilst it lasted. 🙂

[Wtkidz]

Well a new year is coming  and eventually a new pattern but we will see.  Off course everything could change…. 

Edited December 30, 2023 by Wtkidz

[Wtkidz]

Sterling says it will be south of even me but a week out? You can be so sure?.  Every model run brings a different story.  Who knows… 

 

Quote

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A stacked ridge of high pressure will build over our region Tuesday
into Tuesday night. Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures
expected during the period. Highs lower to middle 40s. Lows middle
to upper 20s.

The ridge will depart to the east to allow for a dry cold front to
plunge southeastward across the region on Wednesday into Wednesday
night. Any precipitation that could form would be more likely
upslope rain or snow showers in the Alleghenies after frontal
passage Wednesday night. Precipitation would be light. Highs middle
to upper 40s. Lows upper 20s to middle 30s. About the same time that
upslope precipitation could occur, a low pressure system is expected
to move quickly along the Gulf Coastal states, across southern
portions of the Carolinas and then out to sea. Most precipitation
associated with this low would be more likely across southern and
southeastern Virginia Wednesday night.

Cold dry air and a gusty breeze will ensue behind the cold front and
the southern jet stream low pressure system. High pressure will
build into the region Thursday through Friday. Temperatures will
become about 5 to 7 degrees colder Thursday and Friday than on
Tuesday and Wednesday.