December 27-30, 2023 | NE / Mid-Atlantic Storm

[Penn State]

Our current storm is departing the Northeast.. and it was quite the storm; a triple phaser! The impacts were limited to heavy rain, flooding, strong winds, and even severe weather in the Southeast. Now, our attention turns towards what’s next. Unfortunately, for snow lovers a strong pacific jet will flood North America with warm pacific air over the Christmas holiday, extending towards the new year. However, the well touted.. and predictably delayed “pattern change” may occur as we flip the page on 2023. Some long-range ensembles, including the EPS and GEFS hint at a more favorable pattern in January of 2024. At the very least, it appears likely there will be opportunities for meaningful snowfall in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. I am no expert.. however, it is my opinion that our best snowfall opportunities lie ahead. In particular, I am interested in January 8th-12th. I include this in the spoiler.. but I believe there is support for a storm according to the organic forecasting method. In a couple of days, it should appear on the BSR, and we’ll go from there.. but I digress. 

Regardless.. Something is indeed “afoot” for December 28th and 29th. There’s a definite storm (not necessarily snow…) signal for this time frame. It’s early.. as the pacific jet may be starting to relax; however, that’s no guarantee that cold air will be available. The models show a cutter, that sort of becomes suppressed by a stronger high to the north. That appears to spawn a coastal low.. and that’s where the opportunity for snow lies in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. The 18z GFS shows how this is possible.. but by no means should one run of any operational model (especially the 18z) be taken as gospel; more so a grain of salt.

In terms of teleconnections.. things appear to be heading in the right direction. Will all fall into place by the 29th? ..Meh. However, the PNA is positive. The NAO and AO are both transitioning towards negative territory, and that’s favorable. The MJO is in the right phases, transitioning around 7, 8, and 1. There’s support from the BSR, and even from at least on of the analogs. January of 2003 is listed as an analog, and a minor storm did occur on January 5th. You can read about it here. I actually found a better takeaway from December of 1969, a fellow El Niño year. This setup is listed as an analog, and a NESIS storm occurred about 2 weeks later.. 👀 see my commentary on the January 8th-12th timeframe! 

Anyways.. something is “afoot”.. and I do sincerely hope that something is a literal foot (or more.. lol 😂) of snow in my backyard for New Year’s Eve. As we approach the holidays, this is at least something to discuss! 

Merry Christmas, Happy New Year, and Happy Tracking 🤓

12z GEFS | Members (Hour 252) 

12z EPS | Members (Hour 252)

12z CMCE | Members (Hour 252) 

18z GFS | Operational

Spoiler

Operational Guidance | Surface & 500mb 

12z GFS (Hours 204-294) 

12z ECMWF (Hours 204-240) 

12z GDPS (Hours 204-240) 

Ensembles | 500mb Anomaly 

12z GEFS 

12z EPS

12z CMCE

Teleconnections 

AO

NAO

PNA

MJO

Organic Forecasting 

BSR

CPC 8-14 Day Analog 

WPC Day 7 Forecast 

January 2003 Snowstorm 

12z GFS | North Pacific (BSR 12/22-12/23) 

 

 

Edited December 31, 2023 by Penn State

[bigben89]

Ain’t gonna happen. No way. Christmas torch part deux. 

[TLChip]

Only 10 more days

GEFS

 

EPS

[bigben89]

2 hours ago, bigben89 said:

Ain’t gonna happen. No way. Christmas torch part deux. 

 

[Pghsnow]

I don't recall this product verifying one of their heavy snow areas outside of mountains, so maybe this is a good thing...

[Pghsnow]

The ICON has a storm lurking in the south that would likely affect during this time period. 

Edited December 19, 2023 by Pghsnow

[Penn State]

3 hours ago, bigben89 said:

Ain’t gonna happen. No way. Christmas torch part deux. 

Though I hope not.. That pacific jet can be a stalwart. Until the pattern changes, warmth is king. 

Edited December 19, 2023 by Penn State

[Penn State]

4 minutes ago, Pghsnow said:

The ICON has a storm lurking in the south

[Penn State]

00z GFS certainly delivers a storm.. further north than 18z. Limited cold air.. but look at those highs to the north. At least this hints at a wintry component, unlike the beast from the Southeast that was nothing but rain. 

[1816]

3 hours ago, Pghsnow said:

The ICON has a storm lurking in the south that would likely affect during this time period. 

Gotta love this image. Snow in Mexico, rain in Michigan UP

[bigben89]

7 hours ago, Penn State said:

00z GFS certainly delivers a storm.. further north than 18z. Limited cold air.. but look at those highs to the north. At least this hints at a wintry component, unlike the beast from the Southeast that was nothing but rain. 

Don't look at this morning's run....

[bigben89]

8 hours ago, bigben89 said:

 

I may hold the record for most digital snow in a season?

[MaineJay]

Why do I get the feeling we are looking at either another 4" rain storm, or a pasty 8" that is potentially more damaging.

7.65" of rain in 2 storms, just a week apart, this month already. 

[LUCC]

This is depressing, this would be a perfect track for many but here it's all rain. 

[telejunkie]

12z Euro says "who wants bag full of insults to add to those injuries?!" (has shades of '98 written on it...)

[SnowloverSid]

13 hours ago, LUCC said:

This is depressing, this would be a perfect track for many but here it's all rain. 

I hate coastal huggers that behave like Great Lakes cutters.

[MaineJay]

Can't really do much because the internet is so spotty. At least ewall has stuff that will load.

0z GEFS don't really get the dopamine pumping 

[MaineJay]

Next frame. Wildly diverging runs, yet not a looker in the whole bunch.  EPS at least had some teases in there 

 

[bigben89]

BR saying there may be a chance for the Jan 1-3 time frame?

[StretchCT]

What's crazy is we're going from the 18th to the 27th with no storms. I'm tracking where the storms are going since 12/1 and only have three so far. This would be the fourth.  You'd think we'd be getting systems through the country every 3 days in an El Nino. 

[MaineJay]

*checks calendar*

Can't make this shit up.

[1816]

19 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

*checks calendar*

Can't make this shit up.

Imagine what Canada is thinking. 

[JDClapper]

36 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

*checks calendar*

Can't make this shit up.

Oh man, its 2015, 2016 all over again. Make it stop MJ, make it stop. 😭

Edited December 20, 2023 by JDClapper

[Penn State]

Just now, JDClapper said:

Oh man, its 2105, 2016 all over again. Make it stop MJ, make it stop. 😭

Now.. Don't talk bad about 2015-'16. That was my 33" storm redux of '96. 

[JDClapper]

Just now, Penn State said:

Now.. Don't talk bad about 2015-'16. That was my 33" storm redux of '96. 

Trash.