Nov 1, 2023 | Winter Storm Speculation

[telejunkie]

Let's kick this winter season off in style...with what looks like a good ole fashion nor'easter. A couple s/w rippling along a cold front push the cold air into the region around Halloween and a chuck of energy diving south out of Canada looks to provide the boom. GFS/Euro/CMC all show some version of the storm. Happy tracking!

[MaineJay]

A handful of EPS members have accumulating snow for my area.

[StretchCT]

The blue lines are where I'd want them...a month later. 

[Penn State]

EPS is in a good spot.. 

[MaineJay]

11 minutes ago, Penn State said:

EPS is in a good spot.. 

Eyeballing nearly 50% of members with some snow in my backyard.

[MaineJay]

Looks like it's the sharper EC/CMC vs  flatter GFS/UK.

[MaineJay]

GFS trend

 

 

[HVSNOWSTORM]

Euro cmc in good agreement 

[HVSNOWSTORM]

Euro loop NE off the cost into Maine does best as expected for time of year.

[MaineJay]

1 minute ago, HVSNOWSTORM said:

Euro loop NE off the cost into Maine does best as expected for time of year.

Funny if we get accumulating snow before any sub freezing temps. 37° is my lowest.

[telejunkie]

12z runs....Euro seems to be the last one with a moderate surface reflection of the wave near the coast...but even so, trough remains positively tilted and can't get things. Will still keep an eye on it...but seems like it may just be an ULL moving through the region.

[telejunkie]

From Burlington's afternoon disco:

Quote

he main point of interest is a possible coastal low in
Wednesday-Thursday time frame. Currently, there is high model
confidence that the center of the low will be well to the south
and east. Combined with a cold high pressure to the north and
the cold airmass already in place, it looks like unlike for the
Sunday night storm, the air will be cold enough for snow across
most of the region. However, there is decent model agreement
that most, if not all of the precipitation stays to the south.
There are still some ensemble members, mostly from the EURO,
that bring moderate snow across the region, but those are
outliers. 

 

[TheRex]

I was out at the local tavern tonight having dinner and noticed that the local news stations' weather reports were pretty bullish for some snow to fall in the area.  It probably doesn't hurt the ratings by mentioning snow in promos for the late news.

[HVSNOWSTORM]

22 hours ago, MaineJay said:

Funny if we get accumulating snow before any sub freezing temps. 37° is my lowest.

Thats crazy I've already hit 33 Imby.

[MaineJay]

2 hours ago, HVSNOWSTORM said:

Thats crazy I've already hit 33 Imby.

I'm on a hill, so some local valleys may have dipped below freezing, but I can't say for sure.

EPS maintains about a 45% chance at some snow here.

 

 

[jbrumberg]

I would not be surprised to see snow with this predicted system.   From the NWS/B-N Office this morning:

Spoiler

While there is high confidence in well below normal temperatures by
mid next week, there is low confidence in the chance for, timing,
and type of precipitation that we may see come Wednesday. Both
global deterministic and ensemble guidance remains in two campaigns
regarding a coastal low that will interact with an amplifying trough
inbound from the Great Lakes sometime late Tuesday into early
Wednesday. GFS/GEFS, unsurprisingly, supports a much faster, less
amplified trough that suppresses low pressure to our southeast,
yielding a precipitation shield that would be mainly constrained so
SE MA and RI during the daytime hours of Tuesday; during which
temperatures would be warm enough to support all rain. Conversely,
both the ECWMF/EPS and GEM/CMC hint at a much more amplified, slower
trough that allows coastal low pressure to strengthen closer to the
"benchmark". Given temperatures overnight Tuesday/Wednesday morning
look to drop below freezing across the high terrain, the latter
solution supports the first accumulating snow of the season for the
hills of Worcester/northwest Middlesex counties and western MA.
While we certainly recognize the more robust 10:1 24 hour snow
totals from past runs of the GEM/ECMWF, it would be more prudent, as
with all early/late season snow events, to evaluate the true risk
for accumulating snow using positive snow depth change. Positive
snow depth values from deterministic guidance hint at elevations
higher than ~600ft, which is in line with ensemble probabilities of
1" and 3" of snow of 30 to 40% and 10 to 20%, respectively. It is of
course FAR too early to accurately predict snow totals, so take any
snowfall estimates with a, big, grain of salt over the next few days.

 

And it will not be the first time that I rotary-cut the lower field in the snow either.

[telejunkie]

Not guaranteed, but should get our first frozen precip of the season. Burlington's morning disco:

Quote

The upper trough will push through on Wednesday, ushering in a
reinforcing shot of cold air and providing ample forcing for
potential showers. The question will be how much moisture is
available. While the NAM continues to indicate very dry conditions,
much of the other guidance shows increasing moisture ahead of/with
the trough. Lapse rates will steepen as colder air moves in aloft,
with some elevated instability as well. Scattered showers will be
ongoing over northern NY early Wednesday, and expect at least a few
will move into/develop over VT by the afternoon, especially over the
northern Greens. With temperatures aloft plenty cold enough for
snow, precip type will come down to surface temperatures, which will
only be in the mid 30s in the higher terrain, and lower 40s in the
wider valleys. Therefore expect snow showers in the mountains, while
the valleys will see rain/snow mix and potentially some graupel.
Any accumulation will be less than an inch.

 

[telejunkie]

First dusting of the season....

[twinmama08]

6 hours ago, telejunkie said:

First dusting of the season....

How does this date compare with your usual first dusting date?    My parents who (who live north of Pittsburgh) got a measurable half inch-- early for them!

[telejunkie]

13 minutes ago, twinmama08 said:

How does this date compare with your usual first dusting date?    My parents who (who live north of Pittsburgh) got a measurable half inch-- early for them!

Ended up with 1"....would definitely say that it's early for true accumulations here, but have only been at this location a few years. Down in the valley here didn't see any accums. But back like 10 years ago, I would have told you that in general mountains here see first frozen precip by end of September, valley's by end of October, first big snowstorm by end of November. I remember in '03 living at about 2,000' here and having graupel come down hard enough to accumulate in late September. Things have definitely changed since then and that timeline seemingly has been pushed back by like 2-3 weeks.

[StretchCT]

Wife is reporting graupel (to her sleet, but it's more likely graupel) and said there was a snow shower this morning.  

[MDBlueridge]

On 11/1/2023 at 3:05 PM, twinmama08 said:

How does this date compare with your usual first dusting date?    My parents who (who live north of Pittsburgh) got a measurable half inch-- early for them!

We had our first dusting here in Cascade, MD yesterday! Snow only laid above 1500' elevation. But was fun to see, I had to leave as it was starting but there were much better pictures on facebook. Oh and hi everyone! As @JDClapper would say it was a booker. And as my nerd neighbor reminded me, this is not unusual timing for first snow. 

 

Edited November 2, 2023 by MDBlueridge

[Jon Snow]

I just checked my trail cams, and it appears we had our first snow Wed morning.  No accumulation, but it did snow.

 

[StretchCT]

Next 10 days look pretty boring for the NEMA.  We'll see how long that lasts.

Actually for most of the country.  Most systems flying by to the north.