April 2-8, 2023 | Severe Storms

[Iceresistance]

Just east of me as usual? Come on! I need the rainfall! -_-

 

Edited March 29, 2023 by Iceresistance

[Iceresistance]

I may need to push it back to April 3rd, if necessary.

[Iceresistance]

47 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

I may need to push it back to April 3rd, if necessary.

(Yes, I'm aware I'm quoting myself)

And these are some of the reasons why, now considering April 2nd.

Sounding over Pott. County, OK

6z GEFS

[StormfanaticInd]

This system is modeled to have a lot more instability which could make thing even more interesting 

[Grace]

Friday 0z HRRR STP pretty impressive

 

Also shows supercede development rather than a line

 

If that's correct looks pontentially nasty to me. Cape is not impressive but it might be enough. 

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS shifts west a bit for 4/4, now has the dryline across C OK at 0z 

4/4 is looking absolutely nasty right now for a large area, luckily it's still nearly a week out so hopefully the models will chill out a bit as we get closer. 

[StormfanaticInd]

2 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said:

0z GFS shifts west a bit for 4/4, now has the dryline across C OK at 0z 

4/4 is looking absolutely nasty right now for a large area, luckily it's still nearly a week out so hopefully the models will chill out a bit as we get closer. 

The instability is crazy for early April. 

[ElectricStorm]

Day 6 enhanced is up for AR/S MO, slight risk a little more west and now includes Tulsa. 

[Hoosier]

This one *may* have better moisture than the system tomorrow.  There's a lead system going by on Sun/Mon that gets that process underway, and then the bigger northward surge with the main system for the middle of next week.

I'd never predict a high risk this far out, but barring big model changes, I'd say the floor is probably a moderate risk.

[Iceresistance]

11 hours ago, ElectricStorm said:

0z GFS shifts west a bit for 4/4, now has the dryline across C OK at 0z 

4/4 is looking absolutely nasty right now for a large area, luckily it's still nearly a week out so hopefully the models will chill out a bit as we get closer. 

It currently has trended east, likely Windshield Wiper effect.

[ElectricStorm]

15 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

It currently has trended east, likely Windshield Wiper effect.

Yeah I'd guess this will probably stay east of us which is probably a good thing in this case. 

[StormfanaticInd]

 

[Iceresistance]

1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said:

 

If that is verified, Dear Lord have Mercy for Kansas City

[StormfanaticInd]

Crazy active!

[Neoncyclone]

[Iceresistance]

3 hours ago, Neoncyclone said:

Not again...

[Central Illinois]

4 hours ago, Neoncyclone said:

Wow here we go again!

[StormfanaticInd]

Tuesday has me very worried. 

[Iceresistance]

9 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Tuesday has me very worried. 

Call me crazy, but another High Risk is not out of the question here once again...

[StormfanaticInd]

Plenty of wind  energy and even more instability 

Edited April 1, 2023 by StormfanaticInd

[StormfanaticInd]

4 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Call me crazy, but another High Risk is not out of the question here once again...

I would not be surprised especially given how this spring is evolving 

[StormfanaticInd]

From KIND

As strong warm/moist advection regime evolves preceding the intense
mid-latitude system to our west on Tuesday, more rain will develop.
We are growing increasingly concerned about episodic severe weather
across the region, though the details on timing and specifically
which areas are impacted the hardest are unclear at the moment.
Current thinking is a dangerous setup of very broad warm sector
with anomalous moisture and broad low-level jet/strong mass
response to the main mid-latitude system will bring a risk of
severe storms to Indiana at least with the frontal passage into
Wednesday. There may also be severe thunderstorms in our area
preceding this with either (1) the warm advection regime, or (2)
associated with a weak midlevel perturbation that moves out of the
Arklatex region Tuesday. The ceiling for this event is high
across broader region, with the potential for significant severe
and tornadoes. This may primarily be centered west of Indiana, but
these details will become more clear over the next couple of
days.

[Iceresistance]

24 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Plenty of wind  energy and even more instability 

Dear Lord have Mercy

[ElectricStorm]

April 2th 😂 lol

But yeah Tuesday is still looking very concerning, I was hoping it would downtrend but so far that hasn't been the case. It's impossible to predict a high risk until pretty much the day of (like we just saw) but this will be another dangerous event regardless of risk level.

Models are hinting at a lull in severe weather setups after this one so hopefully everyone can get a break for a bit before it likely picks back up again around mid-month 

[ElectricStorm]

Also whatever model this is needs to chill the heck out