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April 2-8, 2023 | Severe Storms


Iceresistance

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  • The title was changed to April 4th - ?, 2023 | Severe Storms
2 minutes ago, ElectricStorm said:

0z GFS shifts west a bit for 4/4, now has the dryline across C OK at 0z 

4/4 is looking absolutely nasty right now for a large area, luckily it's still nearly a week out so hopefully the models will chill out a bit as we get closer. 

The instability is crazy for early April. 

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This one *may* have better moisture than the system tomorrow.  There's a lead system going by on Sun/Mon that gets that process underway, and then the bigger northward surge with the main system for the middle of next week.

I'd never predict a high risk this far out, but barring big model changes, I'd say the floor is probably a moderate risk.

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11 hours ago, ElectricStorm said:

0z GFS shifts west a bit for 4/4, now has the dryline across C OK at 0z 

4/4 is looking absolutely nasty right now for a large area, luckily it's still nearly a week out so hopefully the models will chill out a bit as we get closer. 

It currently has trended east, likely Windshield Wiper effect.

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  • The title was changed to April 2th - ?, 2023 | Severe Storms

From KIND

As strong warm/moist advection regime evolves preceding the intense
mid-latitude system to our west on Tuesday, more rain will develop.
We are growing increasingly concerned about episodic severe weather
across the region, though the details on timing and specifically
which areas are impacted the hardest are unclear at the moment.
Current thinking is a dangerous setup of very broad warm sector
with anomalous moisture and broad low-level jet/strong mass
response to the main mid-latitude system will bring a risk of
severe storms to Indiana at least with the frontal passage into
Wednesday. There may also be severe thunderstorms in our area
preceding this with either (1) the warm advection regime, or (2)
associated with a weak midlevel perturbation that moves out of the
Arklatex region Tuesday. The ceiling for this event is high
across broader region, with the potential for significant severe
and tornadoes. This may primarily be centered west of Indiana, but
these details will become more clear over the next couple of
days.
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April 2th 😂 lol

But yeah Tuesday is still looking very concerning, I was hoping it would downtrend but so far that hasn't been the case. It's impossible to predict a high risk until pretty much the day of (like we just saw) but this will be another dangerous event regardless of risk level.

Models are hinting at a lull in severe weather setups after this one so hopefully everyone can get a break for a bit before it likely picks back up again around mid-month 

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