March 10-11, 2023 | NE/Mid-Atl Winter Storm

[MaineJay]

Well, it's the thirty year anniversary of "the storm". 

  I'm not superstitious, so I have little problem starting a thread, as I know I'm not important enough in these cosmos where the act of starting a discussion can influence the weather.

  As we head into the trail end of snow season, I know that emotions will run high.  Wether that be frustration due to little or no snow, getting plenty of digital snow, but only getting a few flakes before a bunch of rain, or maybe you are just ready for spring.  Many members will "hibernate" until later fall, so hopefully, we can have a late seasonb fun-filled thread.

  Synoptically, there looks to be a pattern where we the SER actually chill out for a second, and a trof attempts to dig in, with a bit if a ridge over top in a quasi rex block configuration.  Remember, there is no "magical pattern", and models are imperfect, we just have to wait and see.  

  Ensemble low positions.

GEFS trend.

GEFS members.

Operational models all show the eastern trof.  As currently modeled, the axis is likely to far east to please the masses.  This will change, that's all I know for sure.

[Sentinel]

This look is just sexy. Absolutely sexy. Just going to throw that our there. 

[Penn State]

Monster

[Penn State]

Also.. Just to add to @MaineJay’s historical reference.. It took exactly 20 years for a repeat of the Blizzard of ‘96 in ‘16. It certainly would close the loop if we could get a repeat of the Superstorm on its 30th anniversary. 

[MaineJay]

Wow, talk about bombers. There's a 932mb member in there, really bringing the mean down, the 943 helps too.

[MaineJay]

Lol, we can dream. However, this could be devastating to the coast. There were a few coastal bangers in there.

 

[MaineJay]

GEFS don't have a 932, but there are a number of stem winders in there. Almost all show some kind of system pressing though the eastern CONUS in this time frame.

[MaineJay]

6z GEFS

 

[Rush]

@MaineJaysure knows how to build us up for disappointment.  GFS shows a number of possibilities with this final shot of cold air.

[TLChip]

2 minutes ago, Rush said:

@MaineJaysure knows how to build us up for disappointment.  GFS shows a number of possibilities with this final shot of cold air.

Don’t look at the other thread and what usgc posted. 
 

We had a fropa last year on the 12th went for a hike. Last pure snow event iirc imby….was breezey

Spoiler

 

[MaineJay]

16 minutes ago, Rush said:

@MaineJaysure knows how to build us up for disappointment.  GFS shows a number of possibilities with this final shot of cold air.

That's what I'm here for. 

[telejunkie]

GEFS seems less than impressed, but Canadian and Euro are waving both hands in the air....and ready to fire a flare. Decent ridge structure out west...not too much height rise out in front. Could be in for a banger for some...

Edited March 3, 2023 by telejunkie

[NEPAsnow]

let's dance

 

Edited March 3, 2023 by NEPAsnow

[NEPAsnow]

gfs still with storm although different

[NEPAsnow]

where might you be going as well

[telejunkie]

CPC sees it too....

[MaineJay]

12z GEFS.

[MDBlueridge]

9 hours ago, Rush said:

@MaineJaysure knows how to build us up for disappointment.  GFS shows a number of possibilities with this final shot of cold air.

@Rush you have to leave the valley. 

[PA road DAWG]

Can we tag the northeast and mid atl in this one 

[PA road DAWG]

Ok, so I’m usually Debbie downer because god loves me no matter what, and let’s just be real, this winter sucks lol.

But anyways!   This is the best look we’ve had all winter long, by far.  We finally have some help from the pacific with a gorgeous ridge over the pac west.  We have a decaying stout west based -nao and 50/50 block, and plenty of cold air around.  There’s some serious KU potential with this look, 100% certain on that.  
 

The 00z EPS run went absolutely wild last night.  I’ve never seen an eps that impressive at this range before.  An 8” mean at this range for my location is insane on the EPS.  That mean you see is for just this system only.  

[MaineJay]

EFI seems to favor a couple hundred miles either side of the NY/PA border for anomalous snow.  I believe the right hand image is mm of liquid equivalent.

Let's hope the GFS is over phasing/early phasing/over amping it's ensembles.

 

[MDBlueridge]

1 hour ago, PA road DAWG said:

Ok, so I’m usually Debbie downer because god loves me no matter what, and let’s just be real, this winter sucks lol.

But anyways!   This is the best look we’ve had all winter long, by far.  We finally have some help from the pacific with a gorgeous ridge over the pac west.  We have a decaying stout west based -nao and 50/50 block, and plenty of cold air around.  There’s some serious KU potential with this look, 100% certain on that.  
 

The 00z EPS run went absolutely wild last night.  I’ve never seen an eps that impressive at this range before.  An 8” mean at this range for my location is insane on the EPS.  That mean you see is for just this system only.  

This has the setup. I wouldn't be surprised by and ice or snow storm down here in the mid apps. 

[MaineJay]

25 minutes ago, MDBlueridge said:

This has the setup. I wouldn't be surprised by and ice or snow storm down here in the mid apps. 

[JDClapper]

Slushy inch with changeover. Cant wait.

I am the ying, to @PA road DAWG's yang. 😎

[JDClapper]

Not a great start at 12z. Don't shoot the messenger.