March 3-4, 2023 | NE. Winter Storm

[MaineJay]

In like a lion?  Active pattern continues, so many waves, almost like they are taunting the snow starved.  Is it a perfect  setup, no. Is the sun angle rising, yes.  There's always going to be something to nit pick.

 There's a little shortwave that slides through before this, and spacing with the subsequent larger wave will determine the baroclinic zone and track.

 Enjoy.

Operational models are similar.

EPS

GEFS

 

[MaineJay]

CPC

[Rush]

Let's do this.

 

[telejunkie]

Overnight EPS looks decent...a little height rise out in front, but not too much. Can see a little confluence pushing back on it across New England. Would be nice to get an actual coastal storm...

Edited February 23, 2023 by telejunkie

[MaineJay]

There's more moving parts with this system than yesterday's and the end of month system.  There's several shortwaves that that feed into/interact with the longwave trof ejecting from the SW.

[telejunkie]

Euro op really wants to send this one up into the lakes....still not much support among ensembles for that track and height rise out front. GFS is it's closest ally. CMC seems to be closer towards guidance at h5....we'll see. Either way, we'll be depending on downstream support to suppress that height rise.

[PA road DAWG]

May want to tag the northeast and mid Atlantic on this one.  

[telejunkie]

12z GFS looking like it's about to go boom.....

Edited February 24, 2023 by telejunkie

[telejunkie]

The virtual snow is getting DEEP in these parts! ❄️

[Sentinel]

I Don't like the progression currently. This is dangerously close to being another cutter if the Confluence slows up. We have already seen the GFS go from nearly suppression to an I-95 hit, to now well inland. 

[telejunkie]

28 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said:

I Don't like the progression currently. This is dangerously close to being another cutter if the Confluence slows up. We have already seen the GFS go from nearly suppression to an I-95 hit, to now well inland. 

Where as Euro went from cutter to suppression last night. We need that downstream support and Hudson Bay vortex to keep this from cutting....if it doesn't then most of us 🔥. Seems like the story of this winter....

That said, ensembles are keeping height rise along the EC ahead of the wave to a minimum....so crossing fingers the mean is the right path with this one.

Edited February 24, 2023 by telejunkie

[WeatherFlash]

I mean. My largest snowtotal of 4 inches was back in November...so perhaps? Lol 😂 

[Rush]

1 hour ago, WeatherFlash said:

I mean. My largest snowtotal of 4 inches was back in November...so perhaps? Lol 😂 

I'm due my largest of .5 inches tomorrow.  

[WeatherFlash]

51 minutes ago, Rush said:

I'm due my largest of .5 inches tomorrow.  

Painful. Ive only had like 2 or 3 trace events since. And the November snow melted within 24 hours. Tough winter all around. 

[MaineJay]

Average them all, and it's not so bad. Probably right on the DelMarVa.

 

[Penn State]

GEFS trend over the last 24 hours.. not bad. 

[MaineJay]

16 hours ago, Uscg Ast said:

I Don't like the progression currently. This is dangerously close to being another cutter if the Confluence slows up. We have already seen the GFS go from nearly suppression to an I-95 hit, to now well inland. 

Looking at the latest guidance, the GFS tendency to now over amp systems might be at play.  Still 6-7 days out, so I'm not ready to make definitive statements, but I don't think it cuts.  Running up the coastal plain I think more likely, and there's a lot of suppression in some modeling.

Average these and a low INVOF the DelMarVa seems like the bet.

 

 

[MaineJay]

How the preceding shortwave moves through plays a role here.

 

[Rush]

The good news for us southerners is the Euro and CMC are keeping this thing suppressed and south.  Too far south, but that's better than being to far north.  If they looked like the GFS I'd be throwing the towel.

[MaineJay]

GFS looks like a beast

[Sentinel]

16 minutes ago, MaineJay said:

GFS looks like a beast

Great lakes express

EDIT: Granted this is not as likely as outcome as it would have been before. The GFS has been the most inconsistent and small little players make a huge difference hear. The S/W ahead of it and the height fields on the EC will all make huge differences with very minor changes. 

We will see. 

[MaineJay]

2 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said:

Great lakes express. 

We got a good battle shaping up here.

[MaineJay]

Split the middle.

Ukie

GFS

[MaineJay]

Lol a couple of 950s in my neighborhood.   

CMC 

Ukie looks more like the CMC at hour 144 than it does the GFS, but does sit somewhere between.

[StretchCT]

This looks like a fun forecast.  The obvious call is to push it further north.

 

EPS so far

0z EPS typically leads - last 90 days it's beating the WPC

 

Speaking of WPC - here's their guess - either benchmark or just inside.