Admin MaineJay Posted February 22, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 22, 2023 In like a lion? Active pattern continues, so many waves, almost like they are taunting the snow starved. Is it a perfect setup, no. Is the sun angle rising, yes. There's always going to be something to nit pick. There's a little shortwave that slides through before this, and spacing with the subsequent larger wave will determine the baroclinic zone and track. Enjoy. Operational models are similar. EPS GEFS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 22, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 22, 2023 CPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rush Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Let's do this. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted February 23, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 23, 2023 (edited) Overnight EPS looks decent...a little height rise out in front, but not too much. Can see a little confluence pushing back on it across New England. Would be nice to get an actual coastal storm... Edited February 23, 2023 by telejunkie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 23, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 23, 2023 There's more moving parts with this system than yesterday's and the end of month system. There's several shortwaves that that feed into/interact with the longwave trof ejecting from the SW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted February 23, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 23, 2023 Euro op really wants to send this one up into the lakes....still not much support among ensembles for that track and height rise out front. GFS is it's closest ally. CMC seems to be closer towards guidance at h5....we'll see. Either way, we'll be depending on downstream support to suppress that height rise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PA road DAWG Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 May want to tag the northeast and mid Atlantic on this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted February 24, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 24, 2023 (edited) 12z GFS looking like it's about to go boom..... Edited February 24, 2023 by telejunkie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted February 24, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 24, 2023 The virtual snow is getting DEEP in these parts! ❄️ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted February 24, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 24, 2023 I Don't like the progression currently. This is dangerously close to being another cutter if the Confluence slows up. We have already seen the GFS go from nearly suppression to an I-95 hit, to now well inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted February 24, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 24, 2023 (edited) 28 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said: I Don't like the progression currently. This is dangerously close to being another cutter if the Confluence slows up. We have already seen the GFS go from nearly suppression to an I-95 hit, to now well inland. Where as Euro went from cutter to suppression last night. We need that downstream support and Hudson Bay vortex to keep this from cutting....if it doesn't then most of us 🔥. Seems like the story of this winter.... That said, ensembles are keeping height rise along the EC ahead of the wave to a minimum....so crossing fingers the mean is the right path with this one. Edited February 24, 2023 by telejunkie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFlash Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 I mean. My largest snowtotal of 4 inches was back in November...so perhaps? Lol 😂 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rush Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 hour ago, WeatherFlash said: I mean. My largest snowtotal of 4 inches was back in November...so perhaps? Lol 😂 I'm due my largest of .5 inches tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFlash Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 51 minutes ago, Rush said: I'm due my largest of .5 inches tomorrow. Painful. Ive only had like 2 or 3 trace events since. And the November snow melted within 24 hours. Tough winter all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 24, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 24, 2023 Average them all, and it's not so bad. Probably right on the DelMarVa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted February 25, 2023 Social Media Crew Share Posted February 25, 2023 GEFS trend over the last 24 hours.. not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 25, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 25, 2023 16 hours ago, Uscg Ast said: I Don't like the progression currently. This is dangerously close to being another cutter if the Confluence slows up. We have already seen the GFS go from nearly suppression to an I-95 hit, to now well inland. Looking at the latest guidance, the GFS tendency to now over amp systems might be at play. Still 6-7 days out, so I'm not ready to make definitive statements, but I don't think it cuts. Running up the coastal plain I think more likely, and there's a lot of suppression in some modeling. Average these and a low INVOF the DelMarVa seems like the bet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 25, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 25, 2023 How the preceding shortwave moves through plays a role here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rush Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 The good news for us southerners is the Euro and CMC are keeping this thing suppressed and south. Too far south, but that's better than being to far north. If they looked like the GFS I'd be throwing the towel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 25, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 25, 2023 GFS looks like a beast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Sentinel Posted February 25, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 25, 2023 16 minutes ago, MaineJay said: GFS looks like a beast Great lakes express EDIT: Granted this is not as likely as outcome as it would have been before. The GFS has been the most inconsistent and small little players make a huge difference hear. The S/W ahead of it and the height fields on the EC will all make huge differences with very minor changes. We will see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 25, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, Uscg Ast said: Great lakes express. We got a good battle shaping up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 25, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 25, 2023 Split the middle. Ukie GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 25, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 25, 2023 Lol a couple of 950s in my neighborhood. CMC Ukie looks more like the CMC at hour 144 than it does the GFS, but does sit somewhere between. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 25, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 25, 2023 This looks like a fun forecast. The obvious call is to push it further north. EPS so far 0z EPS typically leads - last 90 days it's beating the WPC Speaking of WPC - here's their guess - either benchmark or just inside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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