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February 16-17, 2023 | Northern NY/NE Winter Storm


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I think there's enough if a system here to give it is own place for documentation.

Long Range HRRR with summer wintry precip.

Cut these in half at least verbatim.  Not necessarily destructive, but could be problematic for some locations.


Some snow possible for the northern most reaches of the sub region.


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All sorts of possibilities.



Thursday night to Friday:
A large positively tilted upper level trough will approach the
area Thursday night into Friday, maintaining a surface low that
will bring precipitation to the area. The 12z guidance has
shifted decisively southward towards the Canadian model solution
which tracks the low across Upstate New York eastward into the
Gulf of Maine and Nova Scotia. This low track favors all snow
across northern Aroostook County and nearly all rain closer to
the coast. Warm advection between 700mb and 850mb should lead to
a zone of sleet and rimed snowflakes across central areas and
perhaps as far southward as northern portions of interior
Downeast Maine depending on the low track. American models
continue to indicate higher QPF and stronger frontogenetical
forcing across the Saint John Valley, while the European and
Canadian models show banding from north of Greenville to just
north of Houlton. Ensembles indicate even more uncertainty. Snow
ratios will generally be at climatology or lower for most of
the event given nearly all of the forecast soundings remaining
warmer than -10C and strong winds within the zone of strongest
lift. Given the uncertainty and lack of consistency in the low
track, as well as the onset of precipitation not occurring for
over 30 hours from now, opted against issuance of winter weather
advisories for this update. Precipitation will taper to showers
Friday afternoon before ending Friday evening.


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This went from flurries to serious in short order. NWS Caribou's winter page reflects the uncertainty. There's a 51% chance of a foot or more Caribou north and a 26% chance of 18 inches or more.

 Normally they have that probabilistic forecast down to a few inches in range. 









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Was going to visit the towns salted sand pile today and after the previously forecasted rain for tonight/tomorrow my plan was to get ready to put down a layer on our shiny driveway….that has changed.

There is no need to do it just yet based on the changed forecast to frozen accumulations.  Let Mother Nature provide the grit and I’ll provide the sand after a couple sunny days.  Sitting at about a 12”-14” snowpack, very dense that is slow to melt away.

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Weather rarely fails to leave me humble and wondering why....just had another round of heavy rain move through and temps jumped up to 39F from 36F. Was it because of mixing from the valley or a pocket from up above....

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About 9" of snow so far and still coming down steadily as we've remained above the rain/snow line throughout. Roads have significant drifting to the point where plows are not keeping up on the secondary roads.  Definitely can't get there from here, today!

Currently, 12.4° but feels like a brisk -1.2° with a stiff northerly wind gusting to 25 mph.

Edit: Looks like we're over a foot now and things are starting to slow down. 







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6 hours ago, telejunkie said:

Just another typical February morning here in Vermont, 56F with a t-storm rolling through.

I was driving through northern NH on my way to work this morning, and I thought I saw a flash of light. I assumed my eyes had gone wonky or it was some variety of migraine coming on. Nope. Soon followed by the big kabooms. 

Hell of a winter so far 😕

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I had been posting in the daily observations thread as I was too lazy to look if there was a thread for this storm.  Sorry.

I'm still waiting for the official snowfall map from BTV but I'm guessing we got between 1" to 2" of snow between yesterday and early this morning.  Local reports that ice was 0.13" thick in my area.  We had very light fluffy snow falling last night that was very pretty and everything is white again.

Yesterday we transitioned from freezing rain to sleet and then from sleet to very powdery snow.  We never had any of that heavy wet snow that I would think would follow sleet.  I wonder if there was a middle level warm nose that was pushed out quickly by very cold temps which allowed the snow to be high ratio once it could fall to the ground without any melting.

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