Admin MaineJay Posted February 16, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 16, 2023 I think there's enough if a system here to give it is own place for documentation. Long Range HRRR with summer wintry precip. Cut these in half at least verbatim. Not necessarily destructive, but could be problematic for some locations. Some snow possible for the northern most reaches of the sub region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 16, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 16, 2023 Heck of a shift in the last 36 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Mainiac Posted February 16, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 16, 2023 All sorts of possibilities. .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Thursday night to Friday: A large positively tilted upper level trough will approach the area Thursday night into Friday, maintaining a surface low that will bring precipitation to the area. The 12z guidance has shifted decisively southward towards the Canadian model solution which tracks the low across Upstate New York eastward into the Gulf of Maine and Nova Scotia. This low track favors all snow across northern Aroostook County and nearly all rain closer to the coast. Warm advection between 700mb and 850mb should lead to a zone of sleet and rimed snowflakes across central areas and perhaps as far southward as northern portions of interior Downeast Maine depending on the low track. American models continue to indicate higher QPF and stronger frontogenetical forcing across the Saint John Valley, while the European and Canadian models show banding from north of Greenville to just north of Houlton. Ensembles indicate even more uncertainty. Snow ratios will generally be at climatology or lower for most of the event given nearly all of the forecast soundings remaining warmer than -10C and strong winds within the zone of strongest lift. Given the uncertainty and lack of consistency in the low track, as well as the onset of precipitation not occurring for over 30 hours from now, opted against issuance of winter weather advisories for this update. Precipitation will taper to showers Friday afternoon before ending Friday evening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 16, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 16, 2023 Potpourri storm. Or is it a Hodgepodge? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Mainiac Posted February 16, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 16, 2023 This went from flurries to serious in short order. NWS Caribou's winter page reflects the uncertainty. There's a 51% chance of a foot or more Caribou north and a 26% chance of 18 inches or more. Normally they have that probabilistic forecast down to a few inches in range. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayuphere Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 Was going to visit the towns salted sand pile today and after the previously forecasted rain for tonight/tomorrow my plan was to get ready to put down a layer on our shiny driveway….that has changed. There is no need to do it just yet based on the changed forecast to frozen accumulations. Let Mother Nature provide the grit and I’ll provide the sand after a couple sunny days. Sitting at about a 12”-14” snowpack, very dense that is slow to melt away. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted February 16, 2023 Share Posted February 16, 2023 (edited) Damn, I know where I need to move… northern Maine. Looks like y’all have a good shot for the next week or so to add to that snowpack. ☃️ Edited February 16, 2023 by TLChip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted February 17, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 17, 2023 Just another typical February morning here in Vermont, 56F with a t-storm rolling through. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Mainiac Posted February 17, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 17, 2023 Currently, 15.4° and heavy snow. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted February 17, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 17, 2023 Weather rarely fails to leave me humble and wondering why....just had another round of heavy rain move through and temps jumped up to 39F from 36F. Was it because of mixing from the valley or a pocket from up above.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators StretchCT Posted February 17, 2023 Moderators Share Posted February 17, 2023 Got some blue on the radar with a snowflake out on the mping by Binghamton. I'd have placed the front a little further west from where it is on the Wunderground map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin Mainiac Posted February 17, 2023 Admin Share Posted February 17, 2023 About 9" of snow so far and still coming down steadily as we've remained above the rain/snow line throughout. Roads have significant drifting to the point where plows are not keeping up on the secondary roads. Definitely can't get there from here, today! Currently, 12.4° but feels like a brisk -1.2° with a stiff northerly wind gusting to 25 mph. Edit: Looks like we're over a foot now and things are starting to slow down. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 6 hours ago, telejunkie said: Just another typical February morning here in Vermont, 56F with a t-storm rolling through. I was driving through northern NH on my way to work this morning, and I thought I saw a flash of light. I assumed my eyes had gone wonky or it was some variety of migraine coming on. Nope. Soon followed by the big kabooms. Hell of a winter so far 😕 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 17, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 17, 2023 Changing over to snow here in Windham. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted February 17, 2023 Author Admin Share Posted February 17, 2023 Moderate snow now. Saw a Kia SUV vs Porsche accident at the end of my road, so it's probably getting a little sick out there. 31.3° 1/2" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRex Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 I had been posting in the daily observations thread as I was too lazy to look if there was a thread for this storm. Sorry. I'm still waiting for the official snowfall map from BTV but I'm guessing we got between 1" to 2" of snow between yesterday and early this morning. Local reports that ice was 0.13" thick in my area. We had very light fluffy snow falling last night that was very pretty and everything is white again. Yesterday we transitioned from freezing rain to sleet and then from sleet to very powdery snow. We never had any of that heavy wet snow that I would think would follow sleet. I wonder if there was a middle level warm nose that was pushed out quickly by very cold temps which allowed the snow to be high ratio once it could fall to the ground without any melting. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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