February 16-17, 2023 | Plains/MW/GL Winter Storm

[StLweatherjunkie]

My biggest winter storms this season were on October 17-19 and December 22-24 or 67 days apart. Ever since that second blizzard caliber storm, I've been awaiting the late February time frame. I don't know if this storm is the peak of the pattern or if it'll be later in the month, but I'm excited about what's coming either way! It's possible that April could deliver UP here too. ☃️

Anyways, there's good model support for a deep low cutting into the Great Lakes region (shocker) between the 16th and 18th of February, which is 57 days after the pre-xmas blizzard. A shorter return interval makes sense given faster jet stream between Dec and Feb than Oct and Dec. Anyways, I wouldn't be surprised to see 'b' word warnings with this system. 

Here are the previous 6 EPS MSLP low centers showing a fairly classic Colorado low Wednesday evening. It's important to point out that there's a storm ahead of this one on the 14th-16th, which is key to the track of this seemingly stronger secondary low pressure. 

Another important thing to remember is the current baroclinic zone roughly from Omaha to Milwaukee. The Feb 8-10 and 14-16 storms could alter the snowpack gradient, but think they'll mostly just reinforce it's current location. 

Here's my first guess at how the low tracks. Starting in SW KS on the morning of the 16th then occluding near NE IA overnight before strengthening again as it tracks across lower MI on the 17th. Day 10 forecasts are always a challenge, but I'm feeling more confident about this one than usual. 

[Cary67]

Next couple GLCs should obliterate any snow cover left in Northern IL up perhaps into central WI. Could be another cold shot end of the month into early March repeating pattern of 2 week duration cold pushes. Think that maybe last decent chance for snow in OV. My area I think ORD nickles and dimes its way up to 25" or so for seasonal totals by mid April. MSP and your area continue to stack snow. Could be banner year for Upper Midwest. Think LES areas like yours have lacked enough cold air pushes to maximize les potential. In a winter largely absent east of the Rockies far north has done well. Beats CAD in your neck of the woods.

[Iceresistance]

It's going to be "Meh" for me.

[StLweatherjunkie]

4 hours ago, Cary67 said:

Next couple GLCs should obliterate any snow cover left in Northern IL up perhaps into central WI. Could be another cold shot end of the month into early March repeating pattern of 2 week duration cold pushes. Think that maybe last decent chance for snow in OV. My area I think ORD nickles and dimes its way up to 25" or so for seasonal totals by mid April. MSP and your area continue to stack snow. Could be banner year for Upper Midwest. Think LES areas like yours have lacked enough cold air pushes to maximize les potential. In a winter largely absent east of the Rockies far north has done well. Beats CAD in your neck of the woods.

Maybe I'm splitting hairs, but I disagree about your snow cover assessment. Thursday's cutter is almost certain to sharpen the southern gradient and I expect solid snow pack north of the line between Freeport, IL and West Bend, WI. I think snow pack in lower Michigan is much more vulnerable than snow pack in Wisconsin ... again this sharpens the baroclinic zone and makes it more likely that cutters later this month (including the one this thread is for) will follow a similar path. 

LES has been lacking this winter, but snow pack is near normal due to wet snow events that haven't melted since December. 

[StLweatherjunkie]

2 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

It's going to be "Meh" for me.

Could be severe thunderstorms for you, but yeah I think winter weather looks unlikely. 

[Iceresistance]

19 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

Could be severe thunderstorms for you, but yeah I think winter weather looks unlikely. 

The Severe chances are currently too far south for me, but a lot of rain? I'd strongly prefer that over nothing!

[WeatherJim]

21 minutes ago, StLweatherjunkie said:

Maybe I'm splitting hairs, but I disagree about your snow cover assessment. Thursday's cutter is almost certain to sharpen the southern gradient and I expect solid snow pack north of the line between Freeport, IL and West Bend, WI. I think snow pack in lower Michigan is much more vulnerable than snow pack in Wisconsin ... again this sharpens the baroclinic zone and makes it more likely that cutters later this month (including the one this thread is for) will follow a similar path. 

LES has been lacking this winter, but snow pack is near normal due to wet snow events that haven't melted since December. 

With the forecasted temperatures and the rain this week I would be surprised if there is anywhere in Illinois with snow still on the ground by the end of the week. We lost a good amount of what was on the ground yesterday and that will accelerate once the rain and moisture returns.  

[StLweatherjunkie]

1 minute ago, WeatherJim said:

With the forecasted temperatures and the rain this week I would be surprised if there is anywhere in Illinois with snow still on the ground by the end of the week. We lost a good amount of what was on the ground yesterday and that will accelerate once the rain and moisture returns.  

Plenty of recent model guidance disagrees:

[StLweatherjunkie]

The low is likely in the wrong spot, but the 12z gfs definitely supports the idea of blizzard conditions with this storm:

[Cary67]

I think the 10th-11th system will lay down more snowcover in central WI maybe even far NW IL and southern WI. It's the subsequent cutters that may erode WI snowcover. Of course those are subject to change in model playland at that range. Think Euro and GFS currently show high plains snowstorm. However, would caution the idea that the baroclinic zone is largely influenced by existing snowcover. That's a debate held on weather boards in the past.

[Cary67]

Euro and CMC are dangling a carrot post Valentines Day

[Grace]

East Asia...correlation.

 

EAR suggests south a good bit & be an OV possible winter hit.

BSR suggests something like current models giving OV rain. 

Blend them & you get a St Louis to Chicago look. 

Edited February 10, 2023 by Grace

[Sentinel]

10 hours ago, Cary67 said:

Euro and CMC are dangling a carrot post Valentines Day

That would be a very nice hit

[Pghsnow]

This one is a little after this date but wow 12 hour snows... What a year for upper midwest it would be. And just for laughs the whole run....

Edited February 10, 2023 by Pghsnow

[Wnwniner]

32 minutes ago, Pghsnow said:

This one is a little after this date but wow 12 hour snows... What a year for upper midwest it would be. And just for laughs the whole run....

Where did you get those old DGEX maps from? LOL

[Cary67]

Wagons NW. It's MSPs year to shine. Even Madison WI sits at 38.9" whereas RFD is at 16.6" 50 miles south.

[Sentinel]

On 2/6/2023 at 2:24 PM, Cary67 said:

I think the 10th-11th system will lay down more snowcover in central WI maybe even far NW IL and southern WI. It's the subsequent cutters that may erode WI snowcover. Of course those are subject to change in model playland at that range. Think Euro and GFS currently show high plains snowstorm. However, would caution the idea that the baroclinic zone is largely influenced by existing snowcover. That's a debate held on weather boards in the past.

I've read studies for and against the argument.

That withstanding, the studies I have found most convincing/properly established in regards to method observed the baroclynic zone being significantly affected by ground snow cover. 

Most importantly it seems to keep the baroclynic zone about 100-150 miles SE of where the snowcover is located. 

Of course, a very mature system can and is less influenced by baroclynic forces and can lead to significant outcome differences. 

[StLweatherjunkie]

EPS low centers have been very consistent for several days now with a green/brown hybrid panhandle hook storm track ...

[Cary67]

Green track looks like predominant track this winter. 

[SNOWBOB11]

The second part of this storm on the 16th-17th has shifted south on the last few runs. Euro almost has me in the ZR area where as before it looked like a no doubt rain event. Might be just a mid range south shift and go back to the earlier track but I’m watching anyway.

Also have my eye on the day 10 threat showing up. Might be a bit more cold air to work with for that one.

[Cary67]

With each shift SE comes a weaker, more sheared, less phased system. QPF on Euro might be biased a bit wet.

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Goodluck NW folk

 

 

 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

GEFS mean, friendlier, south

[MidMichiganWx]

Need a good 50 mile shift south. We'll see. Right now I'm on the edge of everything. 

[SNOWBOB11]

Crazy how much further south the ukie is to the other models

Edited February 14, 2023 by SNOWBOB11