Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 18, 2023 Social Media Crew Share Posted January 18, 2023 In the words of character John Dutton.. “Now we’re getting somewhere”. Immediately following the winter storm threat on the 22nd-23rd.. another threat looms for the 25th-26th. Long-range modeling varies, but the general consensus at the moment is a storm that forms in Texas, taps the Gulf of Mexico and heads either for the Southeast or Ohio Valley. Everything is on the table, from a cutter that traverses the Great Lakes (GFS) to a Miller A coastal with rapid intensification (ECMWF), to something in between or nothing at all. The case for a storm is well depicted on the operational models, and has weak ensemble support at the moment. As mentioned in the previous thread, the teleconnections are mixed to unfavorable with only a brief window where there’s a forecasted -AO and +PNA; and this threat may very well lie outside that window. Unfortunately, there’s little support from the BSR or MJO either. Despite the headwinds this threat faces, it’s encouraging to see signs of winter’s return; and the return of meaningful discussion! Though it’s been a long, mild journey this January, it appears we are getting somewhere! Happy Tracking! 12z Ensembles | Hours 180-228 GEFS EPS CMCE Spoiler 12z Operational Models (Surface) | Hours 180-228 GFS ECMWF GDPS 12z Operational Models (500MB) | Hours 180-228 GFS ECMWF GDPS 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators Tater Posted January 18, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 18, 2023 3 hours ago, Penn State said: Everything is on the table, from a cutter that traverses the Great Lakes (GFS) to a Miller A coastal with rapid intensification (ECMWF) As long as my results are measured in feet, I don't care so much how we get there. Unfornately I have a suspicion that the only feet involved will be the two of mine carrying my dejected self back from the window to the chair of despair. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 18, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 18, 2023 Perdy much all of these show a storm, I'd say there's less than usual spatiotemporal differences than is typical at D7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 18, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 18, 2023 6z GEFS. Didn't look that close, but looks like a few southern sliders in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 18, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted January 18, 2023 20 minutes ago, MaineJay said: 6z GEFS. Didn't look that close, but looks like a few southern sliders in there. Lol.. That would happen. Cutter, Cutter, Cutter, Slider.. Cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 18, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 18, 2023 2 minutes ago, Penn State said: Lol.. That would happen. Cutter, Cutter, Cutter, Slider.. Cutter. Lol, it's like my golf game, I gotta a wicked hook, but sometimes I'll have an epic slice. While many of these do "cut", they are also being forced to redevelop at the coast, just to far north for the majority of the region. We aren't seeing the huge flood of warmth at least. I know it's little solace for folks who have been mostly skunked, but it's a late start to snowpack building in the NE this year. Hopefully we can build one in top of another. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 CMC and UK are best shots rn for those of us on the southern fringe: CMC-UK-EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 A less wound up/ less phasing/ earlier transfer are what we want for anyone currently on the fringe or currently out of the frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 (edited) Not getting my hopes up down here yet, lots of adjustments to be made but, Oceans very warm and still worried a storm in OV then transfer is just flooded with warmth. Upper NE is where I’d bet the jackpots be currently. Not a pro just my feeling this year. I would be expecting not a trend north but a correction at some point. Christmas was originally a coastal as well. Not trying to be a downer, keeping myself in check mostly. Edited January 18, 2023 by TLChip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 (edited) 34 minutes ago, TLChip said: Not getting my hopes up down here yet, lots of adjustments to be made but, Oceans very warm and still worried a storm in OV then transfer is just flooded with warmth. Upper NE is where I’d bet the jackpots be currently. Not a pro just my feeling this year. I would be expecting not a trend north but a correction at some point. Christmas was originally a coastal as well. Not trying to be a downer, keeping myself in check mostly. Albany on North is favored here for all snow but anyone NW of 95 is definitely in the game for a front end burst potentially decent accumulation. I'd be really surprised if anyone N&W of NYC doesn't start out as a period of moderate to possibly heavy snow before changing to ice then likely rain. If the storms transfers just a bit more south/ quicker/ weaker system that could shift south aka the UKMET. Edited January 18, 2023 by HVSNOWSTORM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigben89 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 I'm starting to like this opportunity. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 18, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted January 18, 2023 (edited) 12z Model Guidance | Hours 156-204 GEFS GFS Spoiler Surface 500MB EPS ECMWF Spoiler Surface 500MB CMCE GDPS Spoiler Surface 500MB Edited January 18, 2023 by Penn State 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 (edited) incoming on the Euro. Love the position of that High Edited January 18, 2023 by NEPAsnow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 (edited) BOOM!!! Edited January 18, 2023 by NEPAsnow 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigben89 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 6 minutes ago, NEPAsnow said: BOOM!!! Gotta smell the rain to get the big snows, right?!?!?!? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 18, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted January 18, 2023 (edited) 13 minutes ago, NEPAsnow said: incoming on the Euro Beautiful! Edited January 18, 2023 by Penn State 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 18, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted January 18, 2023 Just doing a model comparison at 180.. there's definitely speed and placement differences, but for 180 hours, I think it's a strong signal. Of course, I would love the ECMWF solution, but I have to think that the system prior to this one will have some influence. In terms of high-end potential.. I think this threat has a higher ceiling. The ECMWF shows it attacking a high pressure, and the GDPS has a bowling ball signature in the 500MB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 19, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 19, 2023 18z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 NOAA Shield Model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 19, 2023 Author Social Media Crew Share Posted January 19, 2023 2 hours ago, Pghsnow said: NOAA Shield Model Everyone says you don’t want to be in the 🎯 in the long range.. but I find this rather acceptable at the moment! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 Comparing EMCWF vs GFS this morning at 850. ECMWF 0z, 6z wasnt up yet Quote GFS 6z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 19, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 19, 2023 7 minutes ago, TLChip said: Comparing EMCWF vs GFS this morning at 850. ECMWF 0z, 6z wasnt up yet GFS 6z GFS has been a bit too "phase-y" this winter. 0z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEPAsnow Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 (edited) Ill take it and run, actually improved from overnight euro Edited January 19, 2023 by NEPAsnow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSNOWSTORM Posted January 19, 2023 Share Posted January 19, 2023 1 hour ago, NEPAsnow said: Ill take it and run, actually improved from overnight euro Absolutely agree 💯 Here the 12z control run euro for the 25th storm only: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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