Social Media Crew Penn State Posted January 17, 2023 Social Media Crew Share Posted January 17, 2023 (edited) Thus far.. January has been rather mild. In the Southwest U.S., atmospheric rivers of precipitation have pummeled southern California in a pattern more reminiscent of an El Nino than La Nina. Much of the Eastern U.S. has experienced a snow drought, and many folks along the I-95 corridor are still awaiting their first flakes of the season. Over the past several weeks, speculation has grown around a pattern shift that would lead to more seasonable winter weather, including discussion around a SSWE. The consensus is that this pattern shift should occur at the end of the month, and into February; however, nothing has been written in stone. Preceding this potential pattern shift is this potential threat. If I'm being honest, this particular threat hasn't been on my radar, as I have been resigned to cutter, after cutter. As we all know well, digital forecasts and observed weather are often far apart; thus maybe this will prove to be a surprise that trends in our direction. The primary case for this potential threat is seen in both the ensembles and on the operational models, though the GDPS and ECMWF are more bullish on a wintry scenario as compared to the GFS. I have concern over the lack of a high pressure to the north; however, there is an injection of cold air. If the storm track can remain far enough to the south, there certainly seems to be a fair amount of precipitation to work with. In terms of teleconnections, the PNA is briefly forecasted to go positive, and may catch a negative AO; however the NAO appears to be neutral or positive. Whether a winter storm impacts the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic is far from a sure thing.. but it sure is nice to have something to track! Happy Tracking! 12z Ensembles | Hours 108-156 GEFS EPS CMCE Spoiler 12z Operational Models | Surface (Hours 108-156) GFS ECMWF GDPS 12z Operational Models | 500MB (Hours 108-156) GFS ECMWF GDPS Teleconnections NAO AO PNA Edited January 17, 2023 by Penn State 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rickrd Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 (edited) 2023-01-17 12Z Euro GIF Edited January 17, 2023 by Rickrd 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brodozer1 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 lol ☔ ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 (edited) Need that another 50-100 miles SW still! Plenty of time for change, hopefully in the east coast direction. GEFS MSLP, run up and transfer late GFS 31 Member clownmap I’m thinking the end of Jan is best setup for GLCs, and app runners. NNE will stay in the game if the cold air continues to sag down for us. South of 78 and east of 95 is going to need some more ingredients to show up. The next 2-3 weeks are the coldest on average IMBY. Edited January 17, 2023 by TLChip 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted January 17, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 17, 2023 41 minutes ago, TLChip said: I’m thinking the end of Jan is best setup for GLCs, and app runners. NNE will stay in the game if the cold air continues to sag down for us. South of 78 and east of 95 is going to need some more ingredients to show up. The next 2-3 weeks are the coldest on average IMBY. Don't really agree with you on this....most ensembles show a pretty good looking Hudson Bay vortex to end the month that should cold air flowing in our direction. The start of Feb, what I interpret from them is that they seem to think maybe we lose that vortex and SE ridge can again flex its muscle... long ways off though. I'm the most optimistic I've been in a while that we'll get a run of good storms. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 New laptop, new me. Haha. Anyways, let's track this sumawitch. One of the Ops is not like the others. 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 EPS pops looking good in Central and NEPA. Op on the high end of the members though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLChip Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 (edited) I mostly worry the SE ridge is going to show back up, it’s just been this pain that hasn’t gone away for awhile. Hoping to see the current trends continue. Edited January 17, 2023 by TLChip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 WPC pops, issued a little before noon. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, JDClapper said: WPC pops, issued a little before noon. Guess they aren't buying the EURO, CMC, ICON, JMA combo and riding the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 minute ago, Pghsnow said: Guess they aren't buying the EURO, CMC, ICON, JMA combo and riding the GFS I always feel like these are 1 suite behind. If they issued it before noon, can't imagine much if any 12z data is considered. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigben89 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, Pghsnow said: You gotta smell the rain to get the big snows, right? LOL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pghsnow Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, JDClapper said: I always feel like these are 1 suite behind. If they issued it before noon, can't imagine much if any 12z data is considered. GFS not caving 😡 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 GFS still like nah. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderators telejunkie Posted January 17, 2023 Moderators Share Posted January 17, 2023 41 minutes ago, JDClapper said: New laptop, new me. Haha. Anyways, let's track this sumawitch. One of the Ops is not like the others. Good to see the ClapperTracker™ is still operational. GFS seems to be overly aggressive giving this a negative tilt early....not exactly saying it's wrong, but not much support either. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 17, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 17, 2023 18z GEFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Some discussion from State College: After that, the medium range models are beginning to come into better agreement about a potential late weekend storm system. The 12z/17 GFS/GEFS develops an area of low pressure over the middle Mississippi Valley and tracks it northeastward into the eastern Great Lakes Sunday into Sunday night, and it hints at a Miller-B type secondary development along the NJ or southern New England Coast. Meanwhile, the 12z/17 ECMWF leans more towards a Miller-A solution, digging a trough a bit farther south into the lower Mississippi Valley, developing sfc low pressure over the northern Gulf states, and deepening it as it tracks northeastward and up the East Coast piedmont. Both solutions point towards a potential winter storm for some (or all) of central PA in the Sunday to early Monday timeframe. The details will undoubtedly change as the event approaches, but it is something to keep an eye on moving forward. && 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Quote 0z ICON is nice to interior folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDClapper Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 GFS adjusted SE a bit, CMC adjusted NW a bit. Starting to hone in? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CryptoWeather Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Ukmet 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 18, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 18, 2023 2 minutes ago, CryptoWeather said: Ukmet Welcome! Nice to see some threats that involve the larger sub region. Hopefully Ole Man Winter can lay down some white gold so our inner children can enjoy it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rush Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 minute ago, MaineJay said: Hopefully Ole Man Winter can lay down some white gold so our inner children can enjoy it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 18, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 18, 2023 Lots of variability with this one. I know it's cliche, but the lead storm probably influences this threat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Admin MaineJay Posted January 18, 2023 Admin Share Posted January 18, 2023 I think the hope here, is that each storm lay down some snow, and can allow subsequent storms to track further south. This isn't always the case, but it can't hurt. We are no doubt still figuring some marginal temps but a warm NW Atlantic in place is primed to fuel big storms. I still think we are in a dump west-bleed east by regime in regards to cold, but with a relaxed Pacific, and some split flow, at least we are tracking. Gotta slay some dragons to get to the princess. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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