Annual Nationwide December 25th "White Christmas" Thread!

[Ohiobuckeye45]

As eluded to in the long range thread, the 00z GFS will mark the first frame of being inside the white Christmas watch window (technically it will be Christmas eve). The intent here would be to try and keep tabs on "snow depth" maps by 12z 25th", storms that would have the potential for a white Christmas, historical probabilities, maybe even memories/pictures of Christmas storms of the past? Open for thoughts just don't want to turn this in to an extension of the Long range winter thread.

Does anyone have an updated map where the "climate normals" is using the up to 2020 data? If not....here is what we have. I'd presume odds would be lower using the last decade in certain areas

Obviously if we get close enough to where individual regional threads are warranted. We keep the tracking in those, and more of the snow depth maps etc in here

Edited December 8, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45

[Ohiobuckeye45]

This is going to sound incredibly contradictory given what the stats of the last 10 years show for December's and Christmas' around here. But 2020 was the best I've seen from a timing perspective, was on the very edge of the December 24th 2020 storm and all Christmas day it was on and off snow showers. This was the evening of Christmas Day ❤

Edited December 8, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45

[Ohiobuckeye45]

and when I say western edge, I mean bare bones western edge, but it was enough for the scene

 

Edited December 8, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45

[BoroBuckeye]

That was a nice storm, perfectly timed.  I recall it all coming down to if a secondary low popped up which it did!

[Hiramite]

1 hour ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Does anyone have an updated map where the "climate normals" is using the up to 2020 data?

Here ya go…

1991-2020

 

 

And here’s the 1981-2010 in similar detail.

Edited December 9, 2022 by Hiramite

[Hiramite]

1 hour ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

and when I say western edge, I mean bare bones western edge, but it was enough for the scene

 

I don’t think I’ll get that lucky again for a Christmas storm.

[Wtkidz]

1 hour ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

and when I say western edge, I mean bare bones western edge, but it was enough for the scene

 

I can top that. This what we got in Fredericksburg Virginia on Dec 25, 2020. Part of that very light blue.  Nothing since then around Christmas  
 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

21 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

I don’t think I’ll get that lucky again for a Christmas storm.

Yeah you were smack in the middle, the timing in itself was hallmark movie worthy

[Ohiobuckeye45]

00z GFS snow depth on Christmas eve night

[Ohiobuckeye45]

12z run snow depth Christmas morning, bitterly cold and dry for the entire country. Will be sure to revisit this post (as the first true Christmas morning run) and revisit in 384 hours to see how it did 😄 

 

Edited December 9, 2022 by Ohiobuckeye45

[Ohiobuckeye45]

Snow depth and Christmas morning tenps via 18z GFS

[Hiramite]

33 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Snow depth and Christmas morning tenps via 18z GFS

That snow stripe is from a Christmas Day storm.  I’ll ask a rhetorical “why not”? 🙂

 

[Ohiobuckeye45]

00z snow depth and temps

[StormfanaticInd]

White Christmas chances are pretty decent for many

[1816]

 

6 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Snow depth and Christmas morning tenps via 18z GFS

 

2 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

00z snow depth and temps

Gfs says it could be 60 or it could be 15. 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️

Edited December 11, 2022 by 1816

[Indygirl]

11 hours ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

Snow depth and Christmas morning tenps via 18z GFS

There I am, yep there’s me!!
Right in that little bitty sliver of snow, in the dreaded I70 cut off zone!! 
lol!!

Mayyyybe this year will be The One! 

 

 

[NWOhioChaser]

I’d take an inch of snow if it meant a White Christmas. Don’t need a crazy amount to make it magical!

[Mainiac]

 

Quote

What are the chances of a white Christmas?  There have only been 6 years (1957, 1973, 1998, 2001, 2006, and 2010) with less than an inch of snow on the ground. 

Might get lucky with the Christmas White Stripe™ - Otherwise, adding another to the no snow Christmas list. Interestingly with the most recent in 2010, we got a mega nor'easter right after Christmas which somewhat made up for it. 

[FortySixAnd32]

12 hours ago, Hiramite said:

That snow stripe is from a Christmas Day storm.  I’ll ask a rhetorical “why not”? 🙂

 

Nice geometric cutoff on the South side!!! That triangle is over my house. Lol. 

[Iceresistance]

6z GFS has me Below Zero Christmas morning!

[Hiramite]

28 minutes ago, Mainiac said:

 

Might get lucky with the Christmas White Stripe™ - Otherwise, adding another to the no snow Christmas list. Interestingly with the most recent in 2010, we got a mega nor'easter right after Christmas which somewhat made up for it. 

That’s wild.  I think you’re in a pretty good spot though, lol.   How far back do the records go at that station? 

[Mainiac]

16 minutes ago, Hiramite said:

That’s wild.  I think you’re in a pretty good spot though, lol.   How far back do the records go at that station? 

 

Records at CAR only go back to 1939, so a bit recent compared to BOX, which has records starting in 1872. Did a cursory search for GYX but can't seem to find how far their records go back although it looks like POR starts in 1995 on accumulation data. Maybe @MaineJay would know a bit more on that topic. 

Caribou averages 25.2" of snow in Dec. (& 10.5" in Nov.) so unless rain takes it away, it's usually a white Christmas. 

 

[Hiramite]

10 minutes ago, Mainiac said:

Caribou averages 25.2" of snow in Dec. (& 10.5" in Nov.) so unless rain takes it away, it's usually a white Christmas. 

I’m certainly envious of your “northness” with respect to holding snow cover.  

[MaineJay]

12 minutes ago, Mainiac said:

 

Records at CAR only go back to 1939, so a bit recent compared to BOX, which has records starting in 1872. Did a cursory search for GYX but can't seem to find how far their records go back although it looks like POR starts in 1995 on accumulation data. Maybe @MaineJay would know a bit more on that topic. 

Caribou averages 25.2" of snow in Dec. (& 10.5" in Nov.) so unless rain takes it away, it's usually a white Christmas. 

 

I believe the office has move a couple times, so the record is disjointed.  PWM temp records start in 1948 I believe, some precip records to 1882.  PWM has an inch or more about 60% of years, but it's been 0"-T in 14 out of the last 21 years.

  My location is probably closer to 75%, but recent decades have underperformed somewhat.

[junior]

Always hits different when there's snow on the ground and/or falling on Christmas day. Last time IMBY was 2020. Missed a nice storm that slammed E OH/PA but ended up getting light snow pretty much all Christmas morning and day. Was so nice opening presents with the family next to the bay window with snow steadily falling.

 

Last year I think it was in the 40s and 50s? with rain. Was sad.

Edited December 11, 2022 by junior