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March 12-13, 2022 | Winter Storm - Blue Ridge Blizzard


HVSNOWSTORM

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Lots of support for a system around this period, GFS is all over as expected at this range but consistent with a big storm, Euro has it as well. I belive has OFM support, cold should be running around near by to tap...

6z GFS

gfs-deterministic-east-instant_ptype-7086400.thumb.png.eb8385f153a75502fcc9620a99bb02d7.png

Euro is an interior storm this run followed by another right away, fun time period. Let's get a cpl big snows before we are done!

0z Euro

ecmwf-deterministic-east-instant_ptype-1646265600-1646892000-1647129600-40.thumb.gif.102509fb7fe5248029699e13e4bc93f0.gif

 

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12 GFS is another hit, will post after this once it comes in on the follow up storm. Here is the storm on the 10th, the 2nd storm looms like it's still on its heels this run I'll post the 2nd storm when it loads on gfs.

gfs-deterministic-east-instant_ptype-1646308800-1646859600-1646978400-20.thumb.gif.6a2cd79a2bd9d067f0d8e040d4f63584.gif

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5 hours ago, HVSNOWSTORM said:

Lots of support for a system around this period, GFS is all over as expected at this range but consistent with a big storm, Euro has it as well. I belive has OFM support, cold should be running around near by to tap...

6z GFS

gfs-deterministic-east-instant_ptype-7086400.thumb.png.eb8385f153a75502fcc9620a99bb02d7.png

Euro is an interior storm this run followed by another right away, fun time period. Let's get a cpl big snows before we are done!

0z Euro

ecmwf-deterministic-east-instant_ptype-1646265600-1646892000-1647129600-40.thumb.gif.102509fb7fe5248029699e13e4bc93f0.gif

 

I may be misreading, but I think OFM looks best around 15-16, but a few days wiggle. I'm also thinking the models sometimes "rush" things.

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Here is the follow up event on the 12z gfs, and looks to even have another 3rd event diving in from Central Canada following this one. Very interesting period, I'd personally be disappointed if we missed out entirely and didn't get that least 1 moderate snowstorm here well NW of i95, good chances here and maybe even more to follow.

gfs-deterministic-east-instant_ptype-1646308800-1647021600-1647367200-20.thumb.gif.51fda72e2a889643ccc75a7392578700.gif

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6 minutes ago, StretchCT said:

Euro switched to the earlier GFS look, but WOW did it bomb out. 940mb

ecmwfued---usmercator-240-C-mslpthkpcpk6_2022030312_whitecounty.thumb.png.7ca01cfd9a089afb65a0325ef10e4b9d.png

939mb verbatim on Pivotal maps 😮 Was just coming to post that as being a bit outrageous. 

Certainly, has our collective interest with that deepening aspect alone. 

Edited by Undertakerson2.0
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56 minutes ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

939mb verbatim on Pivotal maps 😮 Was just coming to post that as being a bit outrageous. 

Certainly, has our collective interest with that deepening aspect alone. 

-40mb in <24hrs. That almost hurts my ears just to contemplate such a drop. 

Edited by Undertakerson2.0
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Yesterday's CPC Extended discussion mentions upstream - in doing so, gives us what we'd typically see as a cold response over into our region. 

Quote

Over Alaska, amplified mid-level ridging forecast over much of the northern Pacific and the Bering Sea is expected to lead to unseasonably warm temperatures. No hazards are anticipated for Alaska at this time. However, the persistence of above normal temperatures over Alaska bears monitoring as the state approaches the river ice breakup season later this spring.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

 

Edited by Undertakerson2.0
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2 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

image.thumb.png.d501324d4c921d974a86ee6dfcdfab5b.png

Like c'mon - really? 

Twitter found out I follow weather, and now every 10 or so posts on my timeline are this image or very similar.  

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This is a very very active period with cold air running around, constant waves/ energy everywhere. Models, no question are gonna struggle on which waves of energy to focus on and when with the timing of cold rushing in and how far south. I'd expect total model mayhem from the 7th onward until further notice.

This is 18z gfs gif for just the 10th to 13th:

gfs-deterministic-east-instant_ptype-1646330400-1646892000-1647097200-20.thumb.gif.97d0ebe76f6cc39a0035e9dab7cf70e7.gif

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1 hour ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

00z CMC seems to be the only one truly worthy of the Ol' PARD-on alert. 

This is a family site. Not sure it's the right place to be discussing a pard-on

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2 hours ago, Undertakerson2.0 said:

00z CMC seems to be the only one truly worthy of the Ol' PARD-on alert. 

Lol atm yes, but it's quite the alert, 0z Canadian gif. 2 big hits in 2.5 days haha. Idk if I've ever seen that.

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  • The title was changed to March 10-13, 2022 | Potential Winter Storm
1 hour ago, HVSNOWSTORM said:

Not bad spot for now though.

True, but a couple coastals were hugging coast a bit too much this year or too far offshore to impact the midatl. There were a couple but a lot more near misses or too warm.

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12 GFS misses the 10th and the 13rh is warm for now, that would be super disappointing if couldn't get a storm out of either of these 2 potential big storms or anything following, as things look juicy through the 2nd-3rd week of March.

Last March we got shutout with zero snow, which is not totally unheard of but it's quite rare around here. So if it happend back to back thatd be incredibly rare. Our biggest snowstorms of all time have come in March. I just want 1 big storm this year.

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12z Euro, yuck. Would be such a shame to waste 2 big systems back to back, and just barely be too warm for each of them. Still plenty of time for large shifts in track with both systems being a week+ out.

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