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February 23-24 2024 | Minor Snow Possibility


snowlover2

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Latest from ILN.

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Fri night/Sat: The Friday into Saturday period will feature a potent
S/W, which will pivot to the SE from the wrn Great Lakes region into
the OH Vly around/after midnight. Guidance has trended slightly
stronger with this feature, and its corresponding forcing, yielding
slightly more in the way of both PoPs and potential QPF to contend
with locally late Friday night. The narrow ribbon of sufficient
saturation will exist on the leading edge of /much/ colder air,
which will spill S into the ILN FA early Saturday morning. While the
spatial extend of the pcpn shield may be rather small, the forcing
is somewhat robust, suggesting that ascent within the
saturating/cooling profile should be quite decent in the DGZ, at
least for a several hour period after 06z. Current guidance suggests
the most favorable track for a band of light snow to evolve from nrn
IN through EC IN and WC and SW OH and N KY between 06z-15z, with
most of the steadiest light snow evolving from 07z-13z within this
corridor. While antecedent ground temps will be very warm, the
influx of /much/ colder air with the transition from light rain to
light snow will allow for some accumulation in the heaviest bands,
especially on grassy and elevated surfaces. While most spots will
see a dusting to perhaps a few tenths of an inch, there certainly is
the potential for up to an inch in isolated instances, especially
considering the time of day (night). Confidence is high in the
prospect of having some snow move through the local area, but
somewhat lower in exactly where that corridor will evolve. Snow
should taper off from NW to SE in the several hours after daybreak
Saturday. Although antecedent ground temps will be warm, temps
should dip into the mid/upper 20s by Saturday daybreak for most
spots near/N of the OH Rvr. Highs rebound into the mid 30s and lower
40s by Saturday afternoon as skies clear toward the afternoon and
beyond.

 

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Is this actually going to be a thing?  Pavement sensors indicated below freezing temps and chance of accumulating (minor) snow overnight into early Saturday AM.  Won't stick around long, but may impact roadways for a few hours late overnight/early tomorrow...anyone else seeing this here in central Ohio?

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2 hours ago, Wnwniner said:

Is this actually going to be a thing?  Pavement sensors indicated below freezing temps and chance of accumulating (minor) snow overnight into early Saturday AM.  Won't stick around long, but may impact roadways for a few hours late overnight/early tomorrow...anyone else seeing this here in central Ohio?

Jym Gahanl said 1"-3" with more to the South/West, and he's my go-to (usually). I think it will be minor but may cause some issues overnight (especially as people aren't really expecting).

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It’s 53 degrees here and full sunshine. And ground temp is 46 degrees. It’s kind of hard to believe that we’ll see any accumulation on the surface. Like, it has to snow REALLY hard for it to stick. But I’m okay with that. I think I’m going to have my final goodbye to the winter that never was tonight. I’m just going to enjoy the sight of snow falling. 

I pass the torch to someone else. 

Edited by NWOhioChaser
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12 minutes ago, NWOhioChaser said:

It’s 53 degrees here and full sunshine. And ground temp is 46 degrees. It’s kind of hard to believe that we’ll see any accumulation on the surface. Like, it has to snow REALLY hard for it to stick. But I’m okay with that. I think I’m going to have my final goodbye to the winter that never was tonight. I’m just going to enjoy the sight of snow falling. 

I pass the torch to someone else. 

at least in central Ohio, pavement temps projected to go below freezing around 4AM until 11 AM, so timing wise we may get some roadway accumulations.

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SWS from ILN.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
255 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2024

INZ050-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-080-082-
240300-
Wayne-Union-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Delaware-
Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-
Greene-Fayette-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-
Hocking-Highland-Pike-
Including the cities of Richmond, Liberty, West College Corner,
Kenton, Ada, Celina, Coldwater, Wapakoneta, St. Marys,
New Bremen, Minster, Greenville, Sidney, Bellefontaine,
Marysville, Delaware, Troy, Piqua, Tipp City, Urbana,
Springfield, London, West Jefferson, Plain City,
Downtown Columbus, Newark, Eaton, Camden, Downtown Dayton,
Kettering, Beavercreek, Fairborn, Xenia, Washington Court House,
Circleville, Lancaster, Pickerington, Hamilton, Middletown,
Fairfield, Oxford, Mason, Lebanon, Landen, Springboro, Franklin,
Wilmington, Blanchester, Chillicothe, Logan, Hillsboro,
Greenfield, Waverly, Pike Lake, and Piketon
255 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2024

...SNOW EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...

Snow is expected late tonight into Saturday morning before
tapering off.

Snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with local higher amounts are
forecast. Given ground temperatures will initially be warm, snow
will accumulate on grassy and elevated surfaces. However, as
temperatures drop into the 20s, some slick spots may develop,
particularly on decks, bridges, and overpasses. Reduced
visibilities will also be a concern.

Those planning travel should allow extra time to reach their
destination.

 

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ILN Disco

Quote
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
For the remainder of this afternoon, a weak surface trough
along with some weak instability will bring a brief passing
shower to our far eastern zones before moving out.

For tonight, high resolution models and operational models
agree that a vigorous embedded s/wv will dive southeast into the
middle Ohio Valley. This feature will be associated with a
surface low and cold front. Models continue to indicate that low
level frontogenesis to the left of the surface low track will
be strong be relatively brief given the quick movement of the
system. Moisture with this system is modest and not overly deep.
However, the strong forcing, and a brief period of strong
vertical motion intersecting the favored dendritic growth zone,
will lead to a period of snow. The precipitation may briefly
start out as rain but should quickly change over to snow as
strong cold air advection in the wake of the cold front occurs.
Given that ground temperatures today (including roads) are warm,
this will initially relegate snow accumulations to elevated and
grassy surfaces. The greatest axis of snowfall is expected
along a line extending from northwest to southeast line, which
includes west central Ohio, parts of the Whitewater and Miami
Valleys, central and south central Ohio, and the northeast parts
of the Cincy/Tri-State region. Here 1 to 2 inches are forecast
with local higher amounts possible. This is where an SPS has
been issued to highlight reduced visibilities and some slick
spots developing late (and into Saturday morning) as
temperatures fall below freezing in these locations. For the
remainder of the region, chances of pcpn will be lower and QPF
amounts lighter. Also, it will take some time for air
temperatures to fall below freezing (after daybreak Saturday).
Here, a mention in the HWO produce has been continued for snow
accumulations of less than an inch and some slick spots possible
Saturday morning. Winds will also increase tonight out of the
north and northeast. With a tightening pressure gradient, some
gusts up to 30 mph may occur, especially over northern and
western locations. Lows tonight will range from the lower 20s
north to the mid 30s far south.

 

StormTotalSnowWeb.jpg

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2 hours ago, snowlover2 said:

ILN Disco

 

StormTotalSnowWeb.jpg

Looking at the forcing in and around the area, I would expect a narrow band that will outperform expectations. Otherwise, I would say this is a rather minor event (as has been portrayed) .

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10 minutes ago, Ohiobuckeye45 said:

This thing will be screaming fast through the area, I'd be skeptical of anything over 2" on models

ILN recently updated the SWS and it looks like they shifted the highest totals a little more north/east of the Dayton area. Looking at the motion on the radar i'm not sure i'm buying that yet. Motion right now appears the bulk would drop across E IN/W OH.

Quote
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
941 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2024

INZ050-OHZ060-061-071-072-080-082-240800-
Wayne-Preble-Montgomery-Warren-Clinton-Highland-Pike-
Including the cities of Richmond, Eaton, Camden, Downtown Dayton,
Kettering, Mason, Lebanon, Landen, Springboro, Franklin,
Wilmington, Blanchester, Hillsboro, Greenfield, Waverly,
Pike Lake, and Piketon
941 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2024

...SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...

Snow is expected overnight into Saturday morning before tapering
off.

Snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with local higher amounts are
forecast. Given ground temperatures will initially be warm, snow
will accumulate on grassy and elevated surfaces. However, as
temperatures drop below freezing, some slick spots may develop,
particularly on decks, bridges, and overpasses. Reduced
visibilities will also be a concern.

Those planning travel should allow extra time to reach their
destination.

$$

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
941 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2024

INZ058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ070-077>079-081-088-
240800-
Fayette-Union-Franklin-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-
Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-
Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Butler-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Adams-Scioto-
Including the cities of Connersville, Liberty,
West College Corner, Brookville, Batesville, Milan, Versailles,
Osgood, Bright, Lawrenceburg, Hidden Valley, Greendale, Aurora,
Dillsboro, Rising Sun, Vevay, Carrollton, Warsaw, Florence,
Burlington, Oakbrook, Covington, Erlanger, Independence, Newport,
Fort Thomas, Highland Heights, Bellevue, Dayton, Alexandria,
Owenton, Williamstown, Crittenden, Dry Ridge, Falmouth, Butler,
Augusta, Brooksville, Mount Olivet, Maysville, Tollesboro,
Head Of Grassy, Camp Dix, Vanceburg, Hamilton, Middletown,
Fairfield, Oxford, Downtown Cincinnati, Milford, Summerside,
Mount Carmel, Mount Repose, Withamsville, Mulberry, Day Heights,
Georgetown, Mount Orab, Ripley, Aberdeen, West Union, Manchester,
Peebles, Seaman, Winchester, Portsmouth, and Wheelersburg
941 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2024

...SNOW POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...

Snow will be possible during the late overnight hours into
Saturday morning before tapering off.

Snow accumulations are expected to be less than an inch. Given
ground temperatures will initially be warm, snow will accumulate
on grassy and elevated surfaces. However, as temperatures drop
below freezing, some slick spots may develop, particularly on
decks, bridges, and overpasses.

Those planning travel should allow extra time to reach their
destination.

$$

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
941 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2024

OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-062>065-073-074-240800-
Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union-Delaware-Miami-
Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin-Licking-Greene-Fayette-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Ross-Hocking-
Including the cities of Kenton, Ada, Celina, Coldwater,
Wapakoneta, St. Marys, New Bremen, Minster, Greenville, Sidney,
Bellefontaine, Marysville, Delaware, Troy, Piqua, Tipp City,
Urbana, Springfield, London, West Jefferson, Plain City,
Downtown Columbus, Newark, Beavercreek, Fairborn, Xenia,
Washington Court House, Circleville, Lancaster, Pickerington,
Chillicothe, and Logan
941 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2024

...SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...

Snow is expected overnight into Saturday morning before tapering
off.

Snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches with local higher amounts are
forecast. Given ground temperatures will initially be warm, snow
will accumulate on grassy and elevated surfaces. However, as
temperatures drop into the 20s, some slick spots may develop,
particularly on decks, bridges, and overpasses. Reduced
visibilities will also be a concern.

Those planning travel should allow extra time to reach their
destination.

 

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